Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8781; (P) 0.8794; (R1) 0.8810; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. There is no confirmation of reversal yet and another rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8718 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.8879 and sustained trading above 0.8851 will pave the way to retest 0.9304 high. However, break of 0.8718 support will now indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.8639 support and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. The leg from 0.9304 should have completed after testing 0.8332 structural support. But it's too early to say that larger rise from 0.6935 is resuming. Rejection from 0.9304 will extend the consolidation with another falling leg. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.9304 will target 0.9799 (2008 high). In case of another decline, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0914; (P) 1.0931; (R1) 1.0951; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remain son the upside for 1.0986/0999 resistance zone first. Break there will extend the larger rise from 1.0629 and target next key resistance level at 1.1198 high. On the downside, below 1.0908 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral an bring retreat. As noted before, corrective pull back from 1.0986 should be completed at 1.0830. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 1.0830 and bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the price actions from 1.1198 are seen as a corrective move. Such correction could have completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653. Decisive break of 1.0999 resistance will target a test on 1.1198 high. For now, this will be the preferred case as long as 1.0791 support holds.

Although it was possible that the metal's price will break out of the ascending triangle pattern to the upside, as it should have been in accordance with this pattern's theoretical framework that did not occur. Instead the bullion sharply dropped and reached the 1,240 mark, which acted as a support. Most likely the 1,240 level was set as a stop loss by short sellers, as the metal managed to quickly reach above the 1,245 mark in the next few hours. In regards to the future outlook of the commodity price, it has to be noted that the metal faces the resistance of all of the simple moving averages, which are used by Dukascopy, at the 1,249 mark. Most likely the combined resistance will force gold into a retreat.

Due to the fact that the EUR/USD pair was not jumping in the free range up to the combined resistance of the monthly R2 at 1.1546 and the upper trend line of the massive scale descending channel pattern at 1.1550, a review of the short term situation was done. As a result of the review a rather weak short term ascending channel was discovered. In accordance with the pattern it is likely that that the 1.15 mark will be reached by the end of the day's trading session. In addition, the rate could be at the 1.1550 mark during the first half of next week. However, it could be observed during the late hours of Thursday's trading and early hours of Friday that the 1.1450 level was providing resistance in itself.

Following the massive plunge mid-Thursday, USD/JPY entered in a minor consolidation phase, thus being stranded between the 55– and 200-hour SMAs at 111.69 and 112.21, respectively. The pair found support at the monthly PP at 111.80 prior to moving north. An immediate resistance is provided by the aforementioned 55-hour SMA, while the next resistance located at the 113.36 mark is a distant target. Technical indicators demonstrate mixed results; thus the possible direction of the US Dollar is unclear. In case bullish sentiment prevails in this session, the rate may approach the 55-hour SMA and may even breach it. Nevertheless, the base scenario favours the rate continuing to move sideways, remaining in the 111.70/112.20 territory.

Thursday's trading session was characterized by strong upside momentum that was stopped by the monthly R1 near the 1.3036 mark. The given direction reveals the formation of a minor ascending channel that would suggest a fall down to the 55- hour SMA or the monthly PP at 1.2938 and 1.2903, accordingly. Even though technical indicators remain bullish, trend indicators demonstrate that the given uptrend is decreasing in strength, thus confirming a possible move south in this session. On Monday morning, however, the rate may return near the 1.3000 if the channel-up boundaries are respected. By and large, the rate is expected to trade in the 1.3036/1.2903 area. Being so close to the upper channel boundary means that positive UK Current Account data may breach the upper limit for a while.

Cable eases from new six-week high at 1.3030 but holding around 1.3000 for now. Yesterday’s close above psychological 1.3000 barrier was another strong bullish signal. Bulls are looking for final push towards 1.3047 (14 May high) to fully retrace 1.3047/1.1930 descend and signal extension of recovery phase from 1.2000 zone.

Near-term action may show further hesitation ahead of key 1.3047 barrier as daily studies are overbought and suggest corrective action ahead.

Hourly Kijun-sen offers immediate support at 1.2990, along with former top at 1.2977, with daily cloud top (currently at 1.2910) expected to contain dips.

Res: 1.3030, 1.3047, 1.3081, 1.3120
Sup: 1.2990, 1.2977, 1.2943, 1.2910

During today's Asian trading session, news and data flow was mostly focused on Japan and China. The yen is up for the third consecutive day relative to the dollar. The euro, sterling and the aussie retraced some of the early gains against the dollar as the Asian session was closing.

The upbeat in China's manufacturing PMI pushed up the aussie against the dollar (as China and Australia are major trading partners) to reach an intra-day level of $0.7712, a more than three-month high. At 51.7, China's manufacturing PMI in June was above the expected level of 51.0 and above May's 51.2. However, the aussie has been under pressure against the dollar, retracing earlier gains as the Asian session was coming to a close.

The New Zealand dollar also rose higher against the greenback, last trading at $0.7321. The kiwi is set for a seventh consecutive week of gains against the dollar.

Economic data releases out of Japan were mostly on the positive side. Japan household spending rose 0.7% month-on-month in May, above the forecasted 0.2% and the prior month's 0.5%. At 0.4% as expected, the inflation for May was above April's 0.3%. The unemployment rate increased to 3.1%, up from 2.8% in April.

Dollar/yen was trading below the 112 handle for most of the Asian session, continuing to slide for the third consecutive day. The Dollar Spot Index broadly held steady, down 0.01% at the end of Asian session and heading for a 5% quarterly loss.

The euro was steady against the dollar for most of the Asian session, with some pressure being recorded as the European markets were starting the day. Euro/dollar was last trading at 1.1414.

Sterling held above the $1.30 handle during most of the Asian session. Pound/dollar was last trading at 1.3004.

Gold prices were rising for most of the Asian session on the back of the dollar backtracking, though the precious metal retraced all the gains later in the session and fell further down from yesterday's close. The commodity was last trading at $1,242.96 an ounce.

Oil continued its uptrend on the back of signs US production is falling. WTI rose for the seventh consecutive day and it was last trading at $45.17 a barrel.

The rest of the day will have a heavy data flow that could cause significant volatility among major forex pairs. Just some of the key data points to highlight are June flash inflation out of the eurozone, the UK first quarter GDP and the US core PCE for May.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1394; (P) 1.1419 (R1) 1.1465; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 1.0339 should target 1.1615 medium term resistance next. On the downside, below 1.1374 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 1.1118 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1776). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.

'The US economy looks pretty healthy right now when you think in terms of sectors that could blow up.' - Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC

The US economy expanded at a stronger-than-initially-expected pace in the March quarter amid higher consumer spending. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the domestic economy grew at an annualised pace of 1.4% in the Q1 of 2017, following the preceding quarter's expansion of 2.1% and surpassing the prior estimate of 1.2% growth. Thursday's data showed that the Q1 growth figure's revision was driven by stronger consumer spending, which climbed 1.1% during the reported period, compared to the preliminary reading of a 0.6% increase. However, that was the weakest reading since the Q2 of 2013. Despite the GDP upward revision, the Trump administration's plan to lift annual US economic growth to 3% remained challenging. As to the June quarter, weak retail sales figures, sluggish manufacturing production growth and low inflation suggested that the economy failed to regain positive momentum in the Q2. Other data released on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for jobless aid rose 2K to 244K in the week ended June 23, whereas analysts anticipated a fall to 241K.