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Daily Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Still Kept In A Very Tight Range

The EUR/USD has been acting exactly as we planned it and traded it on Weekly Recap webinar. The situation hasn't changed a lot. In the top left corner you can see the ATR of the pair that is 60 pips(!). That indicates a slow moving low volatile price. On top of that, the pair is moving in a well defined, two-way range. We always need to adapt to current market conditions, so we have 4 possible zones. Two for buying and two for selling. 1.1185-90 POC (b) ( double bottom, historical buyers, YL, D L4, ATR pivot) is the first zone where now moment buyers might wait and push the price up. Deeper retracement to the downside suggests POC2 (b) 1.1160-70 ( W L3, ATR low, WL, D L5, historical buyers). Sellers reside at the first POC (s) 1.1230-40 (D H4, YH, ATR high, W H3, historical sellers). If the price proceeds above 1.1240, we might be looking for POC2 (s) 1.1255-65 (W H4, ATR top, historical sellers).

GOLD Trading Lower Within Uptrend Channel, SILVER Pausing Within Short-Term Bearish Move, CRUDE OIL Starting To Bounce Back.

GOLD Trading lower within uptrend channel.

Gold is consolidating within uptrend channel. Hourly support is located at 1246 (18/05/2017 low). Stronger support is given at 1195 (10/03/2017 low). Expected to show renewed upside pressures.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER Pausing within short-term bearish move.

Silver declines. Closest support is given at 16.44 (18/05/2017 low). Strong support is given at 16.06 (09/05/2017 low). Key resistance is given at a distance at 19.00 (09/11/2017 high). The road seems wide open for further decline.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

CRUDE OIL Starting to bounce back.

Crude oil's decline is stopping since the recent collapse from $52. Support is given at a distance 43.76 (05/05/2017 low). The technical structure suggests further strengthening.

•n the long-term, crude Oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/JPY Weakening Towards Support At 122.56, EUR/GBP Profit-Taking, EUR/CHF Volatility Declines.

EUR/JPY Weakening towards support at 122.56.

EUR/JPY is trading lower. Hourly support is given at 122.56 (18/05/2017 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 125.82 (16/05/2017 high). Major support is given at 114.90 (18/04/2017 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Profit-taking.

EUR/GBP is back below former support given at 0.8787 (13/03/2017 high). The pair keeps on going higher. Strong support can be found at 0.8304 (05/12/2017 low). Expected to reach 0.8900.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Volatility declines.

EUR/CHF is trading lower, even though very slightly. The pair has broken support given at 1.0866 (18/05/2017 low). We believe that the medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards hourly support that can be found at 1.0792 (03/05/2017 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low

USD/CHF Trading Mixed, USD/CAD Bearish Breakout, AUD/USD Monitoring Resistance Area.

USD/CHF Trading mixed.

USD/CHF continues its decline despite some ongoing consolidation. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9727 (09/06/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 1.0107 (10/04/2017 high). Expected to show continued weakness towards hourly support at 0.9614 (06/06/2017 low).

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Bearish breakout.

USDCAD has strongly declined. Hourly support found at 1.3324 (13/04/2017 high) has been broken. Expected to show continued weakness.

In the longer term, there is now a death cross with the 50 dma crossing below the 200 dma indicating further downside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Monitoring resistance area.

AUD/USD is pushing higher since the pair has failed to reach hourly support given at 0.7329 (09/05/2017 low). As long as prices remain below resistance at 0.7608 (17/04/2017 high), there are nonetheless strong downside risks.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Sideways Price Action, GBP/USD Short-Term Bullish Pressures, USD/JPY Ready For Another Leg Lower.

EUR/USD Sideways price action.

EUR/USD continus to trade below strong resistance given at 1.1300 (09/11/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.1110 (22/05/2017 low) has been broken. Stronger support lies at 1.0842 (11/05/2017 low) and key support is given at 1.0494 (22/02/2017 low). Expected to show renewed bullish pressures.

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Short-term bullish pressures.

GBP/USD is now pushing higher below around former hourly support given at 1.2757 (21/04/2017 low). Hourly resistance lies at 1.3046 (18/05/2017 high). Expected to show further decline.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Ready for another leg lower.

USD/JPY's short-term bearish pressures are back. The pair is bouncing lower. Hourly support can be found at 109.12 (07/06/2017 high). Strong support is located at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 110.81 (09/06/2017 high). Other key supports lie at a distance 106.04 (11/11/2016 low). Wide-open for further decline.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

Technical Outlook: Oil Price Remains Under Pressure On Crude Stocks, Production Rise

US oil is consolidating around $46 handle in early European trading after falling in late Tuesday on disappointing crude inventories data.

American Petroleum Institute (API) report, released on Tuesday, showed unexpected rise in US crude stocks by 2.8 million barrels against forecast for 2.7 million barrels draw.

Oil remains under strong pressure on global oversupply and slowdown in demand.

The price is holding in a consolidation range after last week's sharp fall with repeated upside rejections on Mon/Tue signaling limited recovery action and persisting downside risk, despite bullish signal on reversal of oversold slow stochastic on daily chart.

Oil is looking for firm break below cracked Fibo 76.4% support at $45.68 to open way for final push towards key support at $43.74 (05 May low).

Bearish technicals are supporting scenario.

Initial resistance, falling 10SMA ($46.62) stays intact for now and maintains bearish pressure.

Release of Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly crude stocks report, due later today, is in focus for fresh signals. Draw in crude inventories by 2.7 million barrels is forecasted against last week's unexpected build of 3.2 million barrels.

Res: 46.14, 46.62, 47.00, 47.78
Sup: 45.71, 45.55, 45.19, 44.62

Technical Outlook: EURUSD Is Directionless Ahead Of FOMC

Double Doji in past two days signals that the Euro's near-term action is directionless and awaiting Fed for stronger signals. The price is moving within tight range around 1.1200 handle and capped by 10SMA in past few sessions.

Daily technicals maintain overall bullish structure, however, risk of deeper pullback is in play and could be triggered on loss of 1.1166 pivot (Friday's low) which would expose next strong support and breakpoint at 1.1109 (30 May higher low / near Fibo 38.2% of 1.0839/1.1285 upleg).

Conversely, firm break above daily Tenkan-sen / 10SMA (1.1225/31) would generate bullish signal for renewed attempt towards 1.1300 target (08 Nov 2016 high) and extension of broader uptrend from 2017 low at 1.0340.

Res: 1.1225, 1.1231, 1.1285, 1.1300
Sup: 1.1185, 1.1166, 1.1109, 1.1062

EUR/USD Analysis: Breaks Out Of Channel

The common European currency gained enough strength from the support of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level to break the descending pattern, in which it traded against the US Dollar. However, the surge was stopped on Wednesday morning by the weekly PP, which is located at the 1.1216 mark. If the resistance is broken during the day's trading session, it is most likely that the currency exchange rate will ascend to the 200-hour SMA at the 1.1233 level. On the other hand the pair might begin a decline. However, it is highly unlikely as the 55 and 100-hour SMAs are providing support to the currency exchange rate near the 1.1210 level. Meanwhile, as it can be observed on the right, the daily technical indicators are forecasting a surge on a daily timeframe.

GBP/USD Analysis: Downside Risks Persist

In spite of bearish signs, the Sterling managed to appreciate against the US Dollar on Tuesday, successfully retaking the 1.27 level. Gains were limited by the monthly S1, but this area risks getting overcome today, with focus being on the Fed meeting. A rate hike is priced in, but a dovish outlook is still somewhat expected, which is to strengthen the Cable further and allow it to approach the 1.29 handle. However, technical indicators keep giving strong bearish signals, refusing to confirm the possibility of the positive outcome. A hawkish surprise from the Fed could be the result, in which case the GBP/USD pair is likely to retreat towards the monthly S2 at 1.2624 again and possibly even pierce it. Meanwhile, traders remain undecided, as their sentiment is relatively neutral—54% of all open positions are long.

USD/JPY Analysis: Rate Depends On Fed’s Tone

The 200-hour SMA prevented the USD/JPY currency pair from appreciating yesterday, causing the Buck to remain relatively unchanged over the day. Today all eyes are on the Fed, as the tone of its meeting is likely to be the main market driver. From a technical perspective, the Greenback is likely to weaken against the Yen again, as the pair recently broke out from the broadening rising wedge pattern, the 200-hour SMA and the six-week down-trend keep providing rather strong resistance above the 110.00 mark, and technical indicators in all timeframes continue to emit bearish signals. With all signs suggesting a downside development, a positive surprise is likely to have a strong impact on the exchange rate should it occur, with the 111.50 area expected to be the intraday ceiling.