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USD/JPY edged higher again last week but retreated after hitting 154.70. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rise is expected as long as 151.27 support holds. Above 154.70 will resume the rally from 139.57 towards 161.94 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 151.27 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.60).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 134.54).

GBP/USD edged lower to 12833 last week but quickly settled back into established range. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further decline is expected 1.3047 resistance holds. Break of 1.382 will resume the fall from 1.3433 to 61.8% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2732. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.3047 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, considering mildly bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.3433 already. Price actions from there are seen as correction to whole up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.2256, which is close to 1.2298 structural support. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.2298 support holds, rise from 1.0351 long term bottom is expected to continue. The break of 55 M EMA (now at 1.2811) is a sign of bullish trend reversal. Yet, break of 1.4248 structural resistance is needed confirm. Otherwise, price actions from 1.0351 could just be part of a consolidation pattern.

USD/CHF surged to as high as 0.8733 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations first. Current development suggests that fall from 0.9223 has completed at 0.8374, ahead of 0.8332 key support. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8614 support holds. Above 0.8733 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8374 at 0.8899 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern. Rise from 0.8374 is seen as the third leg. Overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Break of 0.8332 low is in favor at a later stage when the consolidation completes.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Rejection by 55 M EMA suggest that this fall is in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD rebounded to 0.6687 last week but was rejected by 55 D EMA (now at 0.6681). Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. For now, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.6551 short term bottom holds. Above 0.6687 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6511 at 0.6777. On the downside, break of 0.6511 will resume the fall from 0.6941 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It's unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Firm of 0.7156 resistance will argue that the third leg has already started towards 0.8006.

USD/CAD stayed in consolidation below 1.3958 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week and further rally is expected. Decisive break of 1.3976 key resistance will confirm larger up trend resumption. On the downside break of 1.3822 support will bring deeper pullback. But downside should be contained by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3741).

In the bigger picture, sideway consolidation pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) might still extend further. While another decline cannot be ruled out, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage. Decisive break of 1.3976 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4391.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.

GBP/JPY stayed in range below 199.79 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 194.79) holds. Above 199.79 will resume the rebound from 180.00 to retest 208.09 high. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that the corrective rise has completed already, and turn near term outlook bearish for 180.00/183.70 support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it's at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 172.07).

EUR/JPY's fall from 166.67 extended last week and the late selloff suggested that a short term top was already formed. Initial bias is back on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 163.31) will argue that whole corrective rise from 154.40 has completed with three waves up to 166.67. Deeper decline should then be seen back to 154.40/155.14 support zone. On the upside, break of 166.67 will target 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 147.33).

EUR/GBP's late breach of 0.8294 suggests that larger down trend is resuming. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.8624 to 0.8294 from 0.8446 at 0.8242. Break there will target 0.8201 key support. On the upside, above 0.8339 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8446 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is in progress. Next target is 0.8201 (2022 low), but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. However, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8624 resistance holds even in case of strong rebound. Decisive break of 0.8201 will indicate long term bearish reversal.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's steep decline last week suggests that rebound from 1.6002 has completed with three waves up to 1.6598. But as a temporary low was then formed at 1.6161, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 1.6161 will target a test on 1.5996/6002 key support zone. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.6598 holds, in case of stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5996 cluster support , up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still expected to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. However decisive break of 1.5996 will argue that the medium term trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.7180 at 1.5388, even as a correction.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6031) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.

EUR/CHF continued to stay in converging triangle last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.9331 will target 0.9305 support first. Firm break there will bring retest of 0.9209 low. On the upside, break of 0.9444 will bring stronger rally to 0.9506 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.9928 is seen as part of the long term down trend. Repeated rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 0.9419) keeps outlook bearish for breaking through 0.9209 low at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will confirm medium term bottoming at 0.9209 and bring stronger rebound back towards 0.9928 key resistance.

In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.