Sample Category Title

EURJPY - The pair faces further move higher following strong strength during Friday trading today. On the downside, support comes in at the 124.00 level where a break if seen will aim at the 123.50 level. A cut through here will turn focus to the 123.00 level and possibly lower towards the 122.50 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 125.00 level. Further out, we envisage a possible move towards the 125.50 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 126.00 level with a turn above here aiming at the 126.50 level. On the whole, EURJPY faces further upside pressure.

Global equities have inched higher overnight, while the 'big' dollar has held most of its gains on strong U.S economic data as some market risk appetite returns despite caution over political turbulence in the U.S.

Despite the rebound, investors remain on 'high' alert as they have become more sensitive to White House headlines and accusations as concerns grow over the strength of the global economy at a time when some Fed policy members are suggesting further tightening.

With no U.S data on the docket for today, the market will be preparing itself for a multiple event-risks in the week ahead. These events include the testimony by former FBI director James Comey at a Senate hearing and an OPEC meeting in Vienna, May 25.

Note: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks to the Association for Corporate Growth at Washington University's in St. Louis (09:15 EST).

1. Stocks find a small reprieve

Asian indices were mixed overnight, tracking a day of stabilization on Wall St. where equities recovered, treasury yields found support and Fed Funds futures outlook for a June hike was back above +70%.

In Japan, the Nikkei edged up (+0.2%) up on financial shares, but has managed to record its first weekly drop in five-weeks. The broader Topix index climbed +0.3%, after sliding -1.3% on Thursday. The gauge has lost -1.3% for the week.

Down-under, the Aussie S&P/ASX 200 Index fell -0.2% percent, capping its worst week since last November.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose +0.2% and the Shanghai Composite was little changed.

Brazil's Ibovespa Index tumbled -8.8%, along with the BRL on Thursday, the most in seven-month, as a political crisis returned to the country after last year's impeachment process. Brazil Supreme court has reportedly opened investigation into President Temer over obstruction of justice.

In Europe, indices are trading higher, tracking positive gains from Asia and the U.S yesterday. Financials are supporting the Eurostoxx, while commodity stocks are better supported on the FTSE 100.

U.S stocks are set to open in the black (+0.2%).

Indices: Stoxx50 +0.4% at 3233, FTSE +0.4% at 7465, DAX +0.4% at 12639, CAC-40 +0.6% at 5324, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 10737, FTSE MIB +0.6% at 21424, SMI +0.6% at 8990, S&P 500 Futures +0.2%.

2. Oil prices climb on hopes output cuts would be extended, gold shines

Ahead of the U.S open, oil futures are trading atop of their one month high on growing optimism that OPEC, and some non-OPEC members, will extend output cuts to curb a persistent glut in crude.

The key benchmarks are heading for their second week of gains.

Brent crude is up +28c, or +0.5%, at +$52.79 and is on track for a +4% climb this week, its second week of gains.

U.S light crude oil (WTI) is up +29c, or +0.6%, at +$49.64 a barrel, highest since April 26. The contract is also heading for a weekly increase of almost +4%.

OPEC ministers meet in Vienna on May 25 to decide production policy for the next six-months. The market is expecting producers to prolong their agreement to limit production, perhaps by up to nine-months.

Gold prices (+0.3% to +$1,250.46) have edged higher overnight and are on track for their biggest weekly gain since mid-April as the dollar softens and amid the ongoing political crisis in the U.S. The yellow metal slipped -1.1%yesterday due to profit taking in its biggest one-day percentage drop since May 3 to snap a five-day rally.

3. Global yield curves flatter on the week

Political anxiety surrounding the Trump presidency continues to stoke demand for haven bonds. This week it drove the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to trade atop of this years low yield set in April (+2.175%).

Adding support for U.S debt is the political crisis in Brazil. After the biggest one-day rally in 12-months on Wednesday, the pace of gains for U.S product seems to be somewhat moderating as we close out the week, and as U.S economic data point to improving growth outlook.

Note: The yield on U.S 10's has climbed +1 bps to +2.24%. It ended Thursday flat after earlier sliding to as low as +2.18%.

Fed-funds futures are showing +74% odds that the central bank will raise short-term interest rates by its June 13-14 meeting, up from Wednesday's +63% odds.

4. Dollar not out of the woods yet

The FX market continues to see some headwinds for the 'mighty' USD as the apparent disarray consuming President Trump's Administration and possible impact on his agenda for the time being.

The EUR (€1.1167) is once again encroaching on the psychological €1.1200 handle on the back of stronger German inflation numbers (see below) and recent ECB speak appearing to have the central bank build the case for autumn QE decision

Sterling (£1.3010) is again making a test above the £1.30 handle. It has failed to get above the psychological level several times over the past week, however, to many, £1.3000 is the key pivot and now a lot of the structural shorts out there post-Brexit will be looking to wind back. Short-term sterling bulls are now targeting £1.3350/1.3400.

USD/JPY (¥111.51) was lower, trading down through ¥112 handle as the JPY currency is having its best week in more than a month aided by demand for safer assets.

5. German PPI records biggest jump in five years.

Euro data this morning shows that price pressure is building in German factories.

Producer prices jumped +3.4% year-on-year in April, marking the strongest gain since December 2011. Digging deeper, the increase was led by higher prices for intermediate goods, which rose +4.3%.

Note: In the last report, it was predominately energy prices that had largely supported the index.

However, ex-energy, Germany's PPI rose sharply too. It was up +2.8% y/y, its strongest gain in six-years. Analysts are expecting rising factory-gate prices could further support German CPI, which hit +2% last month.

The markets focus now turns to the ECB and the possibility of when to begin ending QE.

Global stocks displayed subtle signs of stability during Friday's trading session as investors re-evaluated the explosive Trump developments which rattled financial markets this week. Asian shares were a mixed bag amidst cautious trading while European equities edged cautiously higher. With the spiralling uncertainty over Donald Trump's political future raising questions over his ability to deliver the heavily anticipated pro-growth policies, gains on Wall Street are likely to be limited. It is becoming increasingly clear that the controversies blanketing Trump have left investors jittery with most seeking concrete answers to what the future may hold. Markets may turn extremely sensitive moving forward and any additional news on this Trump episode should spark more volatility.

Dollar bears are back in town

The Greenback gasped for air on Thursday with prices temporarily reversing earlier losses after stronger-than-expected U.S economic data diverted some attention away from the Trump woes. Short-term bulls were inspired further by the hawkish comments from Loretta Mester, CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, which renewed expectations of a U.S interest rate increase in June.

The fact that the Dollar has found itself under renewed selling pressure on Friday continues to highlight how the focus remains on the political instability in Washington and growing uncertainty over the future of Trump's administration. With those who were heavily optimistic over Trump's proposed fiscal policies now having second thoughts amidst this uncertainty, the Dollar could become a seller's best friend.

Sterling blocked by 1.30 gate keeper

Sterling smashed through the stubborn $1.30 resistance during Thursday's trading session following the much better than expected British retail sales growth that quelled some Brexit concerns. Retail sales were resilient in April rising 2.3% despite consumers feeling the pinch from wage growth lagging behind inflation. Although short-term Pound bulls may attempt to exploit the positive data and vulnerable Dollar to elevate the GBPUSD higher, gains still remain limited, especially when factoring the growing uncertainty over Brexit negotiations. From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD still remains at risk of trading lower to 1.2775 if bulls fail to secure a solid daily close above 1.3000. In an alternative scenario, a daily close above 1.3000 should open a path higher towards 1.3250.

OPEC vs U.S Shale

Oil markets lurched higher on Friday as optimism grew over big oil-producing countries extending output cuts to stabilize the markets. Although OPEC may be commended on their ability to repeatedly boost the markets on production cut talks, the effects seem to be wearing out. Oil prices may be exposed to further volatility moving forward as the fierce tug of war between OPEC bulls and U.S Shale bears get underway. While most expect production cuts to be extended until March 2018, I think it's more of a question on how U.S Shale exploits this opportunity to pump more oil into the markets. From a technical standpoint, investors will be paying very close attention to how prices react to the psychological $50 level.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold price traded higher during early trading on Friday and was on track for the biggest weekly gain since April as political unrest in Washington weighed heavily on risk sentiment. Although the metal experienced a sharp technical correction on Thursday, this had nothing to do with a change of bias.It came down to profit taking and a slightly appreciating U.S Dollar. Bulls still remain in control despite the depreciation with prices destined to appreciate higher as uncertainty quickens the flight to safety. From a technical standpoint, buyers need to secure a daily close above $1260 for an incline higher towards $1275.

GBP/USD – 1.3000

Recent wave: Wave V of larger degree wave (III) has ended at 1.1986 and major correction has commenced from there for gain to 1.3000 and 1.3140-50

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy :

Bought at 1.2995, stopped at 1.2935

Position: - Long at 1.2995
Target:  -
Stop: - 1.2935

New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

Although cable’s retreat from 1.3048 turned out to be much deeper than expected, as sterling found good support at 1.2889 and has staged another strong rebound, suggesting consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen and gain to 1.3020 cannot be ruled out, however, break of said resistance at 1.3048 is needed to signal upmove has resumed and extend further rise to 1.3075-80, then 1.3100-10, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3050-60 and price should falter well below 1.3100-10.

Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable's rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has ended at 1.7192, the subsequent selloff is the larger degree wave (C) which is still unfolding with minor wave (III) of larger degree wave 3 ended at 1.1986, hence wave (IV) correction is in progress which could either be a triangle wave (IV) of a complex formation but upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well below 1.4000, bring another decline in wave (V) of 3 for weakness to 1.1500, then 1.1200.

On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.2975-80 is likely, reckon 1.2940-45 would limit downside and bring further consolidation. Only below said support at 1.2889 would signal top has been formed at 1.3048 and bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.2866, then towards previous support at 1.2844 which is likely to hold from here.

• Trump distraction fades as markets bounce back from midweek sell-off;
• FTSE weighed down by GBP rebound following Thursday's mini flash crash;
• Oil boosted by reports that OPEC considering deepening and extending cuts.

It's been one of the quieter days of the week so far in terms of major news flow or economic data and yet, markets are anything but flat as we near the US open, with the events of the previous days continuing to have an impact.

Wednesday's sell-off in equity markets got many people worried about whether the political circus in the US was finally starting to take its toll on investor appetite at the near-record levels. What we've seen since though would clearly suggest otherwise and instead indicate that the moves two days ago were nothing more than a combination of the usual Trump distraction combined with technical levels giving way.

The distraction is obviously undesirable, especially if it develops into anything more, but as it is investors appear relatively confident that it will pass, leaving the administration to focus on the policies that are largely responsible for markets being at these levels, tax reform and spending. The last few months has been something of a waiting game for investors as we await further news on taxes and fiscal stimulus, leaving the S&P and Dow bouncing around between 2,320 and 2,400, and 20,400 and 21,170, respectively. Only a break below here would suggest to me that investors are losing confidence.

In Europe, the FTSE's run this morning has been a little hampered by sterling's resurgence, which comes following a mini flash crash after the European session on Thursday. The stronger pound can weigh on the FTSE, due to its substantial foreign exposure, and that appears to be happening today. The pound is still currently looking a little overextended at these levels and last night's moves are another reminded of its vulnerability. Should it fail to break above 1.3048 against the dollar, it may suggest the pair has topped for now.

Oil is trading higher once again today, supported once again by the prospect of a nine month extension to the current output deal. Reports this morning that OPEC is considering not just extending but also deepening the cuts in a bid to bring the market back into balance is likely supporting the move, with Brent and WTI now on course for their seventh winning session in eight. Of course, just because OPEC is considering this and the Russian energy minister has suggested a willingness to support an extension, it doesn't mean it will happen, especially with regards to the deeper cuts as reported this morning.

Notes/Observations

Quiet session no economic data or fundamental news of note

President Trump begins his 1st international trip (8 days, 5 stops, and 4 countries)

Overnight:

Asia:

China President Xi said to have told South Korea envoy he was willing to work to put bilateral relations on normal track

US Navy said to have moved a 2nd aircraft carrier near North Korea

Japan Government approved one-off bill to allow Emperor Akihito to abdicate; Now passed to Parliament which is expected to pass

Europe:

ECB's Draghi stated that the crisis was now behind them and reiterated view that Euro Area recovery was resilient and increasingly broad-based. Once again called for greater structural integration

ECB's Vasiliauskas (Lithuania): ECB should use its June meeting to start building the case for unwinding its monetary stimulus before making an announcement in the fall

Greece Parliament approved pension cuts and tax hikes agreed upon with the EU and IMF ahead of the Eurogroup meeting on Monday, May 22nd. The measures would allow Greece to complete its bailout review with its international lenders

Greece PM Tsipras: Greece has done its part; now international lenders must fulfill their debt relief promises; it's time for debt relief

OpinionWay/ORPI poll on Parliament elections: Macron's Republic on the Move (REM) set to win 27% of votes in the first round of the National Assembly election

According to ARD survey, support for Germany's ruling coalition CDU/CSU is 38% and opposition SPD party at 36% ahead of September elections

Americas:

(MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) raised Overnight Rate by 25bps to 6.75% (not expected)

(CL) Chile Central Bank (BCCh) cuts Overnight Rate Target by 25bps to 2.50% (not expected)

President Trump: respected the move to name special counsel, but whole thing remained a witch hunt; reiterated there was no collusion between his campaign and Russia

Treasury Sec Mnuchin: We've had no talks about a national sales tax; remain very concerned about debt. affirmed 3% or higher GDP growth was achievable if we reform taxes and regulation; reiterated plan to provide middle-class tax relief. Treasury studying ultra-long bonds, no decision yet on ultra-long bond issuance

US Trade Rep Lighthizer: confirmed began 90-day consultation period to renegotiate NAFTA

Brazil President Temer: I have nothing to hide; I will not resign; will prove innocence before Brazil's Supreme Court. Never authorized bribes to stay quiet

Brazil Supreme court reportedly opened investigation into President Temer over obstruction of justice

Energy:

(NO) Norway Petroleum Directorate (NPD) Apr Oil Production: 1.704M bpd v 1.73M bpd m/m

Economic Data

(NL) Netherlands May Consumer Confidence Index: 23 v 26 prior

(DE) Germany Apr PPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.2%e

(DK) Denmark May Consumer Confidence: 5.8 v 7.4 prior

(EU) Euro Zone Mar Current Account: €34.1B v €37.8B prior; Current Account NSA: €44.8B v €27.8B prior

Fixed Income Issuance:

(LT) Lithuania opened its books to sell EUR-denominated 10-year and 30-year bonds

(IN) India sold total INR150B in 2022, 2029, 2033 and 2051 bonds

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.4% at 3233, FTSE +0.4% at 7465, DAX +0.4% at 12639, CAC-40 +0.6% at 5324, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 10737, FTSE MIB +0.6% at 21424, SMI +0.6% at 8990, S&P 500 Futures +0.2%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes

European Indices trade higher across Europe rebounding from yesterday's losses and tracking positive gains from Asia and the US overnight.

On the corporate front Danone shares edge higher following their long term guidance, with Dufry shares in Switzerland an outperformer after Richemont takes a 5% stake while Hikma Pharmaceuticals trades down over 4% after cutting guidance. Looking to the US morning notable earners include Deere & Co, Footlocker and Campbell Soup.

Equities

Consumer discretionary [Dufry [DUFN.CH] +6.6% (Richemont take 5% stake), Aryzta [ARYN.CHF] +3% (New CEO)]

Materials: [Gemfields [GEM.UK] +3% (Take over offer), K+S [SDF.DE] +3.6% (Reportedly looking to IPO salt division)]

Industrials: [Ficantieri [FCT.IT] +2% (Acquires majority stake in STX France)]

Financials: [Legal & Gen [LGEN.UK] -1.2% (Solvency update)]

Healthcare: [Hikma [HIK.UK] -4.6% (Cuts outlook), Santhera Pharma [SANN.CH] -10% (update on timeline for application of Raxone)]

Speakers

Moody's: Portugal's economic recovery supports its credit profile. 2017 GDP growth at 1.7% and 2018 slowing to 1.4%. Challenges include high govt debt but expected debt-to-GDP ratio to gradually decline

Nigeria Central Bank Dep Gov Nnanna: Monetary policy to remain tight for now

S&P raised Indonesia Sovereign Rating from BB+ to BBB- (investment grade); outlook stable

Taiwan Dep Gov Yang stated that it has now adopted a floating management mechanism

OPEC Panel said to be considering scenario of deepening and extending oil supply cut agreement following meeting with non-member on Friday

Currencies

FX market continue to see some headwinds for the USD as perceived disarray engulfing President Trump ’ s White House and possible impact on his agenda for the time being.

EUR/USD was approaching the mid-1.11 neighborhood as recent ECB speak appeared to have the central bank build the case for autumn QE decision

GBP/USD finally made a test above the 1.30 handle. It has failed to get above the psychological level several times over the past week

USD/JPY was lower in the mid-111 area with the JPY currency having its best week in more than a month aided by demand for safer assets

Fixed Income

Bund futures trade at 161.43 down 8 ticks, coming off Thursday’s high of 161.88. Initial resistance comes from the 162.01 level followed by 163.68. A break of 160.75 support level could see lows target 160.13 followed by 157.50.

Gilt futures trade at 128.33 lower by 33 ticks, finding support from Monday’s high of 128.31. Thursday rally made a high at 128.94 and major resistance lies at the 2017 high of 129.01. Price finds key support at the 127.51 support level. An acceleration lower could test the 126.80 region. Medium-term resistance remains the 129.51 level then 130.28 followed the August 2016 high of 132.80.

Friday’s liquidity report showed Thursday’s excess liquidity declined to €1.646T a drop of €5B from €1.6510T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility rose to €137M from €97M prior.

Corporate issuance saw no deals priced. This week’s issuance is at $26.1B, below the analysts’ issuance target to come in around $30B. For the week ending May 18th Lipper US fund flows reported IG funds net inflows $3.1B bringing YTD inflows to $54.9B, High yield funds reported outflows of $0.65B bringing YTD outflows to $6.74B.

Looking Ahead

06:00 (UK) May CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: 4e v 4 prior; Selling Prices: 29e v 29 prior

06:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined £2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £0.5B and £1.0B respectively)

06:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 2020 and 2028 RIKB Bonds

06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves

08:00 (PL) Poland Apr Sold Industrial Output M/M: -10.6%e v +17.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 11.1% prior; Construction Output Y/Y: 6.8%e v 17.2% prior

08:00 (PL) Poland Apr PPI M/M: +0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.5%e v 4.7% prior

08:00 (PL) Poland Apr Retail Sales M/M: -1.3%e v +16.5% prior; Y/Y: 9.0%e v 9.7% prior; Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.2%e v 7.9% prior

08:00 (EU) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) speaks at Conference in Brussels

08:15 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Retail Sales M/M: +0.3%e v -0.6% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: +0.2%e v -0.1% prior

08:30 (CA) Canada CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.6% prior; Consumer Price Index: No est 129.9 prior

08:30 (CA) Canada CPI Core- Common Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.3% prior; CPI Core- Trim Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior; CPI Core- Median Y/Y: No est v 1.7% prior

09:15 (US) Fed's Bullard (non-voter, dovish) to speak about US Economy and Monetary Policy

10:00 (EU) Euro Zone May Advance Consumer Confidence: -3.0%e v -3.6 prior

10:15 (EU) EU Commission's Guersen speaks at ECB Conference in Brussels

11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close

(NL) Netherlands Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P

(CH) Switzerland Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P

(SE) Sweden Sovereign Debt to be rated by DBRS

12:00 (CO) Colombia Q1 GDP Q/Q: -0.2%e v +1.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.6% prior

13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count data

13:40 (US) Fed’s Williams (moderate, non-voter) in SF

15:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: 1.2%e v 0.3% prior

(IA) Iran holds elections

GBP/JPY - 144.70

Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.

Trend: Near term up

New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

Although sterling fell marginally to 143.40 yesterday, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound suggest consolidation above this level would be seen and gain to 145.30-35 cannot be ruled out, however, break of resistance at 145.90-95 is needed to signal low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 146.30-35 but resistance at 147.10 should remain intact, bring retreat later.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside for now. Below 144.00 would bring test of 143.80-85 but break there is needed to signal the rebound from 143.40 has ended, bring another test of this level, break there would extend the corrective decline from 148.10 top for retracement of recent upmove to 143.00, then towards 142.50-60.

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.


GOLD Medium-term bullish.

Gold seems on its way back up. Hourly support is now located at 1195 (10/03/2017 low). Expected to show further upside pressures.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER Weakening again.

Silver weakens. Strong support is given at 15.63 (20/12/2017 low). Closest support is given at 16.20 (04/05/2017 low). Key resistance is given at a distance at 19.00 (09/11/2017 high).

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

CRUDE OIL Monitoring the $50 level.

Crude oil continues to bounce on shortsqueeze move. Support is given at a distance 43.76 (05/05/2017 low). Demand is very strong and crude oil is set to be monitor again the $50 mark.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/JPY Consolidating.

EUR/JPY's bullish run has ended, Hourly support is given at 122.93 (05/05/2017 low). Major support is given at 114.90 (18/04/2017low). Expected to see further renewed buying pressures towards 126.00 as long as the pair remains above 122.93.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Growing demand.

EUR/GBP is strengthening. The technical has turned positive since the pair has broken resistance at 0.8530 (25/04/2017 low). Support can be found at 0.8304 (05/12/2017 low). Expected to see further consolidation around 0.8600.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Continued weakness.

EUR/CHF is getting lower. Despite the sharp increase and the recent bullish breakout which was very likely psychological, we believe that the medium-term pattern suggests us to see at some point renewed bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY - 124.32




EUR/JPY: Wave v as well as larger degree wave (C) ended at 94.11 and first leg of larger degree wave C upmove has possibly ended at 149.79 and wave 2 correction has possibly ended at 109.49.




As the single currency finally met resistance at 125.82 earlier this week and has retreated, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 123.00 and possibly towards support at 122.55-60 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 121.60-65 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 114.85-125.82) would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 125.82 would signal recent upmove has resumed and extend further gain to resistance at 126.47 but price should falter below 127.50-60, risk from there has increased for another retreat to take place later.

The daily chart is labeled as attached, early selloff from 169.97 (July 2008) to 112.08 is wave (A) of B instead of end of entire wave B and then the rebound from there to 139.26 is wave (B), hence, wave (C) has possibly ended at 94.12 with a diagonal triangle as labeled in the daily chart, hence upside bias is seen for further gain. Recent rally above indicated retracement level at 116.69 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the intermediate fall from 139.26-94.12) adds credence to this view and signal major reversal has commenced but first leg of this wave C has possibly ended at 149.79, hence wave 2 has commenced with wave A ended at 126.09, followed by wave B at 141.06, wave C commenced and could have ended at 109.49, above 125.00 would add credence to this view. 



On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 123.00-10 and then 122.55-60 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 121.60-65 and bring another rise to aforesaid upside targets. Only below indicated support at 120.60 would defer and risk deeper pullback to 120.00 but downside should be limited to 119.40-50 and support at 118.90-95 should remain intact, bring another rise later. 

Recommendation: Buy at 121.60 for 124.50 with stop below 120.60.

To re-cap the corrective upmove from the record low of 88.93 (18 Oct 2000), the wave A from there is subdivided as: 1:88.93-113.72, 2:99.88 (1 Jun 2001), 3:140.91 (30 May 2003), 4:124.17 (10 Nov 2003) and 5 ended at record high of 169.97 (21 Jul 2008). The brief but sharp selloff to 112.08 is viewed as a-b-c x a-b-c wave (A) of B. The subsequent rebound to 139.26 is (B) of B and (C) of (B) has possibly ended at 94.12 and in any case price should stay well above previous chart support at 88.93, bring rally in larger degree wave C towards 150.00.