Sample Category Title

EUR/USD

Current level - 10861

The overall bias remains neutral, but due to the fact, that the pair is currently close to the lower boundary of the trading range, an upmove is to be expected, towards 1.0950 peak. A break through the latter will challenge 1.1010 area. Key support lies at 1.0826.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

USD/JPY

Current level - 111.15

The intraday outlook is negative, for a dip towards 110.50 support zone. Major resistance lies at 112.26.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2902

The intraday bias is bullish above 1.2860 minor support, for a rise towards 1.3000 sentiment area. Next major resistance is projected at 1.3120.

Cable is making a strong rise away from 1.2364, clearly in impulsive fashion which can see an extension up to 1.300-1.3140 area for wave C. That said, recent slow price activity was sub-wave 4), which may have already found a base and current intra-day rally may be sub-wave 5) of three.

GBPUSD, 4H

'The ECB reiterated that rates will remain at current or lower levels for an extended period and that its asset purchase program will continue to the end of 2017 or beyond, if necessary.' – Alexandria Arnold and Dennis Pettit, Bloomberg

Pair's Outlook

On Friday morning the common European currency had retreated below the combined resistance of the weekly R2 and monthly R1 near the 1.0880 level against the US Dollar. Due to the fact that the pair bounced off the long term resistance during this week, this can be considered the start of a medium term decline. The currency exchange rate is likely to decline by the end of the day to the combined support of the 200-day SMA, which is located at the 1.0837 mark, and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0826.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders remain bearish, as 59% of open positions are short, and 58% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.

'GBP/USD should be capped in front of raised range resistance (1.30-32) and is likely to slide back towards the centre of its 1.20-1.32 rang.' – Westpac (based on FXStreet)

Pair's Outlook

Downbeat US fundamental data caused the Cable to appreciate again and break out from its consolidation trend yesterday. Despite the breakout, the GBP/USD currency pair is still unlikely to keep posting gains, due to the monthly R2, the weekly R1 and the upper Bollinger band forming resistance just 50 pip from today's opening price. Furthermore, the still not fully confirmed broadening rising wedge's resistance line passes through that area, thus, providing additional resistance. Meanwhile, the nearest support lies only around 1.2745, but a drop that low is unlikely to occur, with the 1.28 mark expected to be the lowest possible level.

Traders' Sentiment

Market sentiment once again reached a perfect equilibrium, but the portion of orders to acquire the Sterling edged up from 57 to 61%.

'We don't expect any dollar downside risks on the back of any disappointments with respect to Trump.' – Credit Agricole (based on Business Recorder)

Pair's Outlook

Wednesday ended with the US Dollar outperforming the Yen, therefore, leaving the 111.00 handle intact. The situation barely changed from yesterday, meaning that the USD/JPY pair still has sufficient room for another leg up, as the nearest resistance rests only circa 112.10. At the same time, the weekly R3 is unable to provide strong support, with the nearest significant demand area being only around 110.15. According to technical indicators, the exchange rate is unlikely to change significantly today.

Traders' Sentiment

Bulls are now barely outnumbering the bears, as 51% of all open positions are long, compared to 55% previously. The number of orders to buy the Greenback returned to its Wednesday's level. The purchase orders now take up 57% of the market (yesterday 53%).

'People are probably going to buy gold around $1,250 and sell it around $1,280. There is nothing on the news to aggressively buy gold at this point of time.' – Anonymous trader (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

The yellow metal has not moved much since the fall, which was experienced on Tuesday. The commodity price remained above the support provided by the weekly S2 at 1,263.56. It is most likely that the markets are expecting the outcomes of various political situations, which are in the development, before making a decision. In the case of a decline the bullion would fall down to the 1,253 level, where close by starts a strong support cluster. However, if a surge occurs, the cluster near the 1,274 mark is likely to stop it.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX market sentiment remains bearish, as 47% of open positions are short. However, 61% of pending commands are to buy the bullion.

Cable is maintaining bullish near-term bias after strong rally on Thursday that posted new, marginally higher high at 1.2914 but closed few pips below previous top at 1.2904.

Technicals are bullish but overbought on both, daily and weekly chart and warn of correction, although no firmer bearish signals seen so far.

The pair is awaiting release of UK Q1 GDP data, which may boost the price towards 1.2950/1.3000 targets on upside surprise, while release below expectation would deflate the price and risk test pivotal supports at 1.2806 (rising 10SMA) and 1.2770 (former consolidation floor).

Res: 1.2914, 1.2944, 1.3000, 1.3055
Sup: 1.2886, 1.2837, 1.2806, 1.2770

Sunrise Market Commentary

• Rates: Dovish Draghi pushes European bonds higher
  Today's trading may be interesting. Eco data may be slightly bond negative, but overwhelmed by geopolitical risk & weekend habit to de-risk positions, end-of month buying, technical consideration (Bund) and the impact of yesterday's ECB meeting (European bonds).
• Currencies: Euro rebound blocked by soft Draghi comments
  Yesterday, EUR/USD declined off the recent recovery top as ECB's Draghi dismissed calls for a policy normalization. Today , the EMU CPI and the US Q1 growth take center stage. There might be some further profit taking on the EUR/JPY and EUR/USD if sentiment on risk eases and if European bond yields decline further after yesterday's soft ECB speak.

The Sunrise Headlines

• US equities ended nearly flat (Dow, S&P) to modestly higher (NASDAQ). The S&P held within reach of the all-time highs but a retest didn't occur maybe as investors wanted to see results of Alphabet & Amazon and Q1 GDP.
• Asian equities show modest to moderate losses overnight as geopolitical risks on North Korea flared up. Trump said he sees chances of a major, major conflict with the country though he prefers a diplomatic solution.
• A Saturday EU summit in Brussels will serve as a stage for EU leaders to talk up unity and warn British officials against sowing division in the hope of securing a better exit deal. UK PM May said the rest of Europe will line up to oppose us.
• The U.S. government will remain open, for a few days at least. Lawmakers filed a 7-day stopgap spending bill that buys more time for them to cobble together an omnibus package. Trump says he will sign the bill if presented to him.
• Brent oil had a rollercoaster ride, threating the $50/barrel level on news Libya will restart two of its largest oil fields and doubts the OPEC production cuts will be enough to push inventories lower. However, a spectacular rebound followed.
• Alphabet and Amazon spun out some earnings magic. The former posted $20.12 billion in sales, above the $19.75 billion estimate, and profit topped consensus. Amazon beat by 40 cents and projected revenue that may exceed the consensus in Q2. Both shares skyrocket in after trading.
• Busy calendar today with EMU inflation, US, France and UK Q1 GDP releases and US Michigan consumer sentiment highlights going toward next week's FOMC meeting. European earning results include Barclays, Sanofi, RBS…

Currencies: Euro Rebound Blocked By Soft Draghi Comments

Euro rebound blocked after ECB press conference

On Thursday, the Trump tax plan didn't provide clear guidance for the dollar. The focus for euro trading turned to the ECB's press conference. ECB's Draghi kept a balanced message. Good growth is counterbalanced by soft underlying inflation. So, for now, there is no strong enough reason for FX markets to anticipate early steps to policy normalisation. The interest rate differential between the dollar and the euro widened. EUR/USD dropped from 1.09 to the mid 1.08 area and closed the session at 1.0873. USD/JPY held a sideways range in the lower half of 111.

Overnight, Asian equities are ceding modest ground even as some tech bellwethers in the US posted strong results after the close. Geopolitical tensions (North Korea) an end of month profit taking are probably to blame. Japanese eco data were mostly good, confirm a further gradual recovery, but the CPI data remained soft. The yen trades little changed. USD/JPY still holds a tight range in the low 111 area. EUR/USD maintains yesterday's post-ECB decline and trades around 1.0865.

Today, the eco calendar is again well filled. EMU April HICP inflation is expected to rebound to 1.8% Y/Y for the headline and 1% Y/Y for the core from respectively 1.5 and 0.7% Y/Y in March. We see upside risks as German and Spanish CPI surprised on the upside. France, Spain and Belgium publish Q1 GDP figures. We expect solid figures. In the US, Q1 GDP, Michigan consumer sentiment and the Chicago PMI will be published. Q1 GDP is expected at a meagre 1% Q/Qa. Q1 US growth will be disappointing, but risks are on the upside of expectations.

In a daily perspective, the eco data might be mixed for EUR/USD trading. Of late, higher EMU price data had the potential to support the euro, but the figure shouldn't come as a surprise. At the same time, markets look convinced by yesterday's soft ECB inflation assessment. If sentiment on risk would turn a bit softer (end of month profit taking?) and if European yields decline a bit further after yesterday's soft ECB speak, EUR/JPY and the EUR/USD might lose some further ground. A cautious risk sentiment might also be a slightly negative for USD/JPY. So, the topside in EUR/USD looks a bit better protected after this week's rally.

This week, FX trading was driven by the global risk trade as (European) political event risk eased. This supported USD/JPY but also EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. Market speculation that the decline in EMU political event risk could bring forward the ECB normalisation process supports the euro, too. However this hope is erased, at least temporary, after ECB's Draghi's press conference yesterday. From a technical point of view, the rebound of USD/JPY suggests a bottoming out process might have started, but the pair needs to regain the 112.20 level (neckline ST double bottom) to improve the picture. EUR/USD extensively tested the topside of the MT range (1.0874/1.0906 area) late March. The pair returned to the range top after the French election and set minor new highs. We look out how this test turns out. If EUR/USD would regain the 1.10 barrier, next resistance comes in in the 1.1145/1.13 area (US pre/post-election swings). The jury is still out, but we are not convinced that the time is already ripe for a sustained break higher of EUR/USD.

EUR/USD rebound running into resistance as ECB's Draghi dismisses calls for early policy normalization

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP eases after this week's rebound

Sterling already received a better bid on Wednesday and the rebound continued on Thursday. We didn't see any specific story behind move. Cable jumped temporary north of 1.29 and then settled near the big figure. EUR/GBP drifted back south to the 0.8450 area. At noon, the CBI reported sales were very strong at a multi month high, supported by good weather conditions. The report was sterling supportive, but sterling had already realized an important part of its intraday gains at the time of the publication. In the afternoon, EUR/GBP trading joined the euro decline after the ECB press conference. The pair closed the session at 0.8425 (from 0.8487). Cable finished the session at 1.2904.

Overnight, GFK consumer confidences declined slightly from -6 to -7, in line with expectations. Today, the first estimate of the Q1 UK GDP will be published. An easing of growth to 0.4% Q/Q from 0.7% Q/Q is expected. A soft report shouldn't come as a surprise for markets and only the details from the supply side will be available. So given the GBP positive momentum, we don't expect a strong negative sterling reaction. A softer euro might also weigh slightly on EUR/GBP.

Early last week, EUR/GBP dropped below EUR/GBP 0.84 support, (temporary) improving the sterling picture. The pair came within reach of the key 0.8305 support (Dec low), but no real test occurred. After this week's rebound, the range bottom is better protected. Longer term, Brexit-complications remain a potential negative for sterling. Nevertheless on technical considerations we are inclined to reconsider a cautious EUR/GBP buy-on-dips approach

EUR/GBP correcting lower .as post-Macron rebound peters out

Download entire Sunrise Market Commentary

Market movers today

Today brings US GDP figures for Q1. The Fed Atlanta GDP nowcast shows growth in Q1 of 0.5% q/q AR, softdata indicates growth in the region of 1.5-2.0%. We expect to land somewhere in between and forecast GDP growth of 1.0% q/q AR in Q1.

We will also get PCE core inflation for Q1. If the current trend in monthly PCE core increases continues (implying increases of around 0.1% m/m), PCE core inflation would come in at 2.2% q/q AR. However, note that although this may give the impression that inflation has reached its target, the Fed is more concerned about PCE core inflation y/y, which w ll be significantly below 2% almost no matter what the March print comes in at.

Today, the euro area flash inflation figure is due for release. Following the decline in headline inflation to 1.5% y/y in March, we look for an increase to 1 .8% y/y in April (revised from 1.7% after higher German and Spanish data yesterday). In line with the fall in March, this is due mainly to the early timing of Easter in 2016, which is causing volatility in prices of package holidays. This is also reflected in core inflation, which we estimate will increase to 1.0% y/y in April from 0.7% y/y in March. Looking beyond the Easter volatility, we expect headline inflation to decrease below 1.5% y/y, as the support from the oil price fades, while core inflation should also be back around 0.8-0.9% y/y.

ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters is also due for release. The longer term (fiveyear) inflation expectations in the survey have been stable at 1.8% over the past year.

In Scandinavia it is t ime for labour data in Norway and retail sales in Norway and Sweden.

Selected market news

The ECB kept policy rates, the QE programme and its forward guidance unchanged at yesterday's meeting: Importantly, the ECB still expects policy rates 'to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. That said, the ECB did sound slightly more optimist icon the euro area growth out look, but still underlined that the underlying inflation pressure remains subdued.

The market took its direction from the inflation comments and European bond markets rallied. Also the comment from Draghi that it was not up to the ECB, but the national central banks to ease the tensions in the repo-market supported especially the short -end of the German curve. The EUR suffered slightly on he 'dovish' interpretation.

The Swedish Riksbank was also seen as 'dovish' yesterday as the QE programme was extended for yet another six months and as the rate path was flattened. Note though that the decision to extend the QE programme was a tie and was only carried out as Governor was in favour. We have been posit ive on Swedish bonds for quite a while and the extension of the QE purchases supported this view. The Swedish krona on the other hand suffered on the QE extension.

The US equity market ended marginally higher as the market tried to digest a whole bunch of policy news ranging from the Trump tax plan, to the mixed signals regarding the future for the Naftatrade agreement and the looming government shut -down. But in factlittle news came during the day to guide the markets.

A note on lower timeframe confirming price action...

Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is our main tool to confirm strength within higher timeframe zones, and has really been the key to our trading success. It takes a little time to understand the subtle nuances, however, as each trade is never the same, but once you master the rhythm so to speak, you will be saved from countless unnecessary losing trades. The following is a list of what we look for:

• A break/retest of supply or demand dependent on which way you're trading.
• A trendline break/retest.
• Buying/selling tails ... essentially we look for a cluster of very obvious spikes off of lower timeframe support and resistance levels within the higher timeframe zone.
• Candlestick patterns. We tend to only stick with pin bars and engulfing bars as these have proven to be the most effective.

EUR/USD

Kicking this morning's report off with a quick look-see at the weekly chart shows that the pair remains hovering above the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873/ resistance at 1.0819. However, it might be worth waiting for the weekly candle to close shop before presuming that these said resistances are consumed. Down on the daily candles we can see that price has spent last two days easing from a trendline resistance extended from the high 1.0828. Consequent to this, the unit is now positioned within inches of support coming in at 1.0850.

After failing to sustain gains beyond the 1.09 handle yesterday, H4 bears clocked a low of 1.0851. While a bounce from this region could be seen given the aforementioned daily support in play at the moment, the 1.08 handle also looks a reasonable possibility for a bounce.

Our suggestions: Why the 1.08 boundary? Well, It converges beautifully with February's opening level at 1.0801, a H4 AB=CD 161.8% Fib at 1.0794 taken from the high 1.0949 and a H4 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.0784 drawn from the low 1.0682. What's more, notice a daily support is seen just below it at 1.0776 (the next support below the current daily level mentioned above). So, while price could obviously ignore 1.08 today and rally from the current daily support, we feel the 1.08 level quite simply has more to offer and is worth the wait.

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures at 1.30pm, FOMC member Brainard speaks at 6.15 pm, closely followed by FOMC member Harker who speaks 7.30pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.0776/1.08 ([dependent on the time of day, a long from here is possible without the need for additional confirmation] stop loss: 1.0773).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GBP/USD

Following a H4 consolidation between 1.2844/1.2776 that lasted a good few days, H4 bulls finally rose up and took charge yesterday, marching up to the 1.29 handle. Closely supporting this psychological band is a daily AB=CD 161.8% Fib extension seen at 1.2920 (Taken from the low 1.2108). Also noteworthy is weekly action. Following the prior week's (marginal) close beyond resistance at 1.2789, the bulls look poised to extend north up to supply drawn from 1.3120-1.2957.

With the above notes in mind, where does this leave us? Well, shorting from 1.09 today is a possibility with stops placed above the 1.2920 reigon. This, of course, could be considered a risky move though given where weekly price looks to be headed. As such, the team has decided to side step the short from 1.29 and wait to see if price can reach the H4 mid-level resistance at 1.2950 owing to how close this level is located to the above said weekly supply.

Our suggestions: Wait and see if H4 price shakes hands with 1.2950. Should this come to fruition, we'd then require a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form (preferably a full-bodied candle) to confirm sellers are active.

Data points to consider: UK Prelim GDP figures at 9.30am. US Advance GDP figures at 1.30pm, FOMC member Brainard speaks at 6.15 pm, closely followed by FOMC member Harker who speaks 7.30pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.2950 region ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's wick).

AUD/USD

During the course of yesterday's sessions, the H4 candles aggressively whipsawed through both the AB=CD 127.2% Fib ext. at 0.7458 and nearby mid-level support at 0.7450. At this stage, nevertheless, the odds of price breaching these two levels today are high. Our reasoning lies within the higher-timeframe structures. Check out the weekly chart. The bulls initially attempted to rotate from the support area seen at 0.7524-0.7446, but has thus far been unsuccessful. This has left price trading within the lower limits of this zone. Also of interest is the daily chart. Yesterday's movement chalked up a clear-cut indecision candle around the bottom edge of a support area at 0.7449-0.7506 (seen lodged within the current weekly support area).

Our suggestions: The weakness seen from the bid-side of this market at the moment makes us reluctant to take longs. On that note, we would, should a decisive H4 close be seen beyond 0.7450, look to trade short on any retest (if it's accompanied by a full-bodied H4 bearish candle that is) seen to the underside of this number, targeting 0.7400 as an initial take-profit target.

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures at 1.30pm, FOMC member Brainard speaks at 6.15 pm, closely followed by FOMC member Harker who speaks 7.30pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for price to engulf 0.7450 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter ([waiting for a H4 full-bodied bear candle to form following the retest is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's wick).

USD/JPY

Over the past couple of days, the H4 candles have experienced a considerable amount of choppy action between April's opening level at 111.41 and the 111 handle. Directly above this range is a supply seen at 112.19-111.95, whereas beyond 111 is a mid-level support seen at 110.50. Aiding the bears at the moment is a weekly resistance area at 111.44-110.10 and a daily resistance area drawn from 111.35-112.37.

Our suggestions: Given the higher-timeframe structures currently in motion, the overall tone is biased to the downside, in our opinion. Because of this, we're looking for a H4 close to print below 111 today. This – coupled with a retest that's followed up with a H4 bearish rejection (preferably a full-bodied candle) would be enough evidence to short down to at least the H4 mid-level support at 110.50.

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures at 1.30pm, FOMC member Brainard speaks at 6.15 pm, closely followed by FOMC member Harker who speaks 7.30pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for price to engulf the 111 handle and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter ([waiting for a H4 full-bodied bear candle to form following the retest is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's wick).

USD/CAD

In recent sessions, we saw the H4 candles surpass the 1.36 handle and touch gloves with a H4 mid-level resistance at 1.3650/resistance pegged at 1.3662. Despite the current resistances in play right now, the higher timeframes strongly suggest further buying may be on the cards. Over on the weekly timeframe, price is not only seen respecting the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.3434 as support, it also recently broke above a well-defined double-top formation seen around the 1.3588 neighborhood (green circle). In addition to this, the recent break of daily supply at 1.3598-1.3559 (now acting support area), in our view, confirms the weekly bull's strength. The next upside target seen beyond here comes in at 1.3859-1.3700: a supply zone which happens to house the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.3814 (the weekly timeframe's next upside target) within.

Our suggestions: In essence, our desk is looking for H4 price to close above the current H4 resistances. A long on any retest of these levels is valid up to the 1.37 band. It is here we'd advise tightening your position. Not only because it is a psychological level, but also due to it denoting the lower edge of the current daily supply. Ultimately though, we would be looking to take full profit around the 1.38 region, essentially marking the 2016 yearly opening line.

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures at 1.30pm, FOMC member Brainard speaks at 6.15 pm, closely followed by FOMC member Harker who speaks 7.30pm. Canadian GDP numbers at 1.30pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Watch for price to engulf 1.3662 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter ([waiting for a H4 full-bodied bull candle to form following the retest is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/CHF

For the past few days, the H4 candles have been busy chiseling out a consolidation between 0.9923/0.9964. Above this range, we can see a H4 Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 0.9992, closely followed by parity (1.0000) and then April's opening level at 1.0016. To the downside, however, there's the 0.99 handle, which is shadowed closely by February's opening line at 0.9890. Over on the daily chart, the pair remains capped by a resistance area seen at 1.0001-0.9957. Assuming that the bears remain in control here, the Swissy may eventually pay a visit to the support area penciled in at 0.9842-0.9884.

Our suggestions: As far as we can see, there's equal opportunity to trade this pair both long and short today. For shorts, we have the 1.0016/0.9992 region, and for longs there's the 0.9884/0.99 base. Both zones, as you can probably see, boast daily structure. The only grumble we would have if we were to take a long from the said area is the fact that weekly price could potentially push the market through our H4 buy zone to shake hands with support at 0.9861.

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures at 1.30pm, FOMC member Brainard speaks at 6.15 pm, closely followed by FOMC member Harker who speaks 7.30pm. SNB Chairman Jordan speaks at 9am GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 0.9884/0.99 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's tail).
• Sells: 1.0016/0.9922 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's wick).

DOW 30

As can be seen from the daily timeframe this morning, the candles are struggling to breach the resistance area coming in at 21022-20933. This, we believe, is all that's stopping the DOW from reaching fresh record highs! A decisive close above here would very likely seal the deal. Right now though, it seems the bears are in control. With little support seen over on the H4 timeframe until we reach March's opening level at 20824, there's a chance that we may see more pressure come in from the bears!

Our suggestions: Based on the above notes, a short from the H4 resistance at 21020 could be an option considering that it merges closely with 21028: a H4 Quasimodo resistance level seen marked with a black arrow. However, taking into account that the broader focus on this index remains north, waiting for a H4 bearish rejection candle to form off 21020 (preferably a full-bodied candle) before committing to a short is advised. This, of course, by no means guarantees a winning trade, but what it will do is show seller intent off a high-probability resistance level.

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures at 1.30pm, FOMC member Brainard speaks at 6.15 pm, closely followed by FOMC member Harker who speaks 7.30pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 21020 region ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's wick).

GOLD

The yellow metal, as you can see, remains capped by the H4 resistance area at 1266.0-1270.7 and H4 support level at 1261.0. This is quite something considering that we have a daily support area at 1265.2-1252.1 and a weekly support level at 1263.7 both in play at the moment! Although shorts look tempting beyond the current H4 support level down to April's opening level at 1248.0, we just would not feel comfortable selling here knowing what's lurking beneath us on the higher timeframes! Unfortunately, even with a decisive push to the upside, H4 buyers will have to almost immediately contend with resistance marked at 1276.4.

Our suggestions: Neither a long nor short seems attractive at this time. It appears we're trapped from both ends! With this being the case, remaining on the sidelines may very well be the better path to take today.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).