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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.27% against the JPY and closed at 109.07 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 110.08, with the USD trading 0.93% higher against the JPY from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 109.15, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.23. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.70, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.33.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.16% against the CHF and closed at 0.9971 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9968, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CHF from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9916, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9863. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.001, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0051.

Amid a lack of economic releases in Switzerland today, trading trend in the CHF is expected to be determined by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.28% against the CAD and closed at 1.3503 on Friday.

The Canadian Dollar lost ground, after the consumer price index (CPI) in Canada advanced less-than-anticipated by 1.6% YoY in March, affirming the central bank's view that a recent rise in inflation was temporary. In the previous month, the CPI had advanced 2.0%, whereas markets expected for a gain of 1.8%. Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, the CPI rose less-than-estimated by 0.2% in March, compared to a similar rise in the prior month. Market expectation was for the CPI to advance 0.4%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3487, with the USD trading 0.12% lower against the CAD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3453, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.342. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3522, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3558.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0715 (R1) 1.0747; More....

EUR/USD surges to as high as 1.0918 so far today. Breach of 1.0905 resistance indicates resumption of the choppy rise from 1.0339. And intraday bias is turned to the upside. At this point, such rise from 1.0339 is still seen as a correction. Thus, we'd pay attention to topping signal above 1.0905 and below 1.1298 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.0777 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0569 support first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9938; (P) 0.9968; (R1) 0.9985; More.....

USD/CHF's fall resumed by breaking 0.9940 and reaches as low as 0.9897 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9812. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as a correction. Hence, we'll look for bottoming signal below 0.9812. Meanwhile, on the upside, above 0.9999 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0107 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, we're still maintaining that firm break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the cross. However, the corrective nature of the fall from 1.0342 is starting to give the medium term outlook a bullish favor. Hence, in stead of looking for topping signal around 1.0342, we'd now pay closer attention to upside acceleration as USD/CHF approaches this level again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2759; (P) 1.2797; (R1) 1.2838; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.2903 temporary top. With 1.2614 resistance turned support intact, further rally is expected. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.2108 to 1.2614 from 1.2365 at 1.2871 will target 161.8% retracement at 1.3184. Still, price actions from 1.1946 are seen as a correction. Hence we'd expect strong resistance below 1.3444 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2614 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2365 support first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term reversal yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Global Markets:

• Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.25 %, Shanghai Composite fell 1.55 %, Hang Seng declined 0.20 %, ASX 200 gained 0.20 %
• Commodities: Gold at $1277 (-0.95 %), Silver at $16.90 (-0.25 %), WTI Oil at $49.90 (+0.50 %), Brent Oil at $52.80 (+0.65 %)
• Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.31, UK 10-year yield at 1.04, German 10-year yield at 0.25

News & Data:

• UK Rightmove House Price Index MoM (Apr): 1.10% (prev 1.30%)
• UK Rightmove House Price Index YoY (Apr): 2.20% (prev 2.30%)
• French poll: Macron, Le Pen through to second round – RTRS
• Euro jumps, shares firm on French election relief – RTRS
• U.S. stocks futures rally after centrist takes first round in French election – RTRS

CFTC Positioning Data:

• EUR short 22K vs 19K short last week. Shorts increase by 3K
• GBP short 99K vs 106K short last week. Shorts decreased by 7K
• JPY short 30K vs 35K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
• CHF short 14K vs 10K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
• CAD short 33K vs 32K short. Shorts increased by 1K
• AUD long 43K vs 45K long. Longs trimmed by 2K
• NZD short 15K vs 15K short last week. No change

Markets Update:

The Euro rallied following the outcome of the first round of the French presidential election. The centrist candidate Macron and far-right candidate Le Pen made it into the second round, and the market is expecting that Macron will not have any problems winning the race.

EUR/USD started the new trading week around 1.09, up 150 pips from the Friday close. During the Asian session, the currency pair retraced some of those gains, but found good support ahead of the 1.08 level. The short-term outlook is now positive, and a rally towards 1.10 is likely.

USD/JPY also benefited from the increased risk appetite and made it to 110.55 overnight. The currency pair came slightly under pressure after the Tokyo open, but support is now seen at 109.50.

Upcoming Events:

• 09:00 GMT – German IFO Business Climate
• 13:30 GMT – Canadian Wholesale Sales
• 16:30 GMT – FOMC Member Kashkari speaks

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, April 25th

• 14:00 GMT – US House Price Index
• 15:00 GMT – US CB Consumer Confidence
• 15:00 GMT – US New Home Sales
• 15:00 GMT – US Richmond Manufacturing Index

Wednesday, April 26th

• 02:30 GMT – Australian CPI
• 13:30 GMT – Canadian Retail Sales
• 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, April 27th

• 03:00 GMT – Bank of Japan Rate Decision
• 07:00 GMT – Swiss Trade Balance
• 07:30 GMT – Bank of Japan Press Conference
• 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
• 12:45 GMT – ECB Rate Decision
• 13:00 GMT – German CPI
• 13:30 GMT – US Durable Goods Orders
• 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
• 13:30 GMT – ECB Press Conference
• 15:00 GMT – US Pending Home Sales

Friday, April 28th

• 00:30 GMT – Japanese CPI
• 00:30 GMT – Japanese Unemployment Rate
• 00:50 GMT – Japanese Industrial Production
• 00:50 GMT – Japanese Retail Sales
• 02:30 GMT – Australian PPI
• 06:30 GMT – French GDP
• 07:00 GMT – German Retail Sales
• 07:45 GMT – French CPI
• 09:00 GMT – SNB Chairman Jordan speaks
• 09:30 GMT – UK GDP
• 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
• 13:30 GMT – US GDP
• 13:30 GMT – Canadian GDP
• 15:00 GMT – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
• 14:45 GMT – US Chicago PMI

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.79; (P) 109.11; (R1) 109.34; More....

The strong rebound and break of 110.10 resistance indicates short term bottoming at 108.12, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 111.58 support turned resistance. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 118.65 is merely a corrective move and has completed. Outlook will then be turned bullish for 115.49 resistance and above. Meanwhile, below 108.87 minor support will turn bias to the downside and extend the whole decline from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it's not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7524; (P) 0.7535; (R1) 0.7553; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned back to the upside with breaking of 0.7562 minor resistance. Break of 0.7609 resistance will indicate resumption of rise from 0.7472 and target 0.7748 high. That will also argue that whole rally from 0.7158 is resuming and put 0.7849 key resistance fibonacci level in focus. On the downside, below 0.71490 will now likely send AUD/USD through 0.7472 low.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8144) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3459; (P) 1.3492; (R1) 1.3527; More....

With 1.3456 minor support intact, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for 1.3534 resistance. Break will target 1.3598 high next. Decisive break there will confirm resumption whole medium term rally from 12.460 and target next medium term fibonacci level at 1.3838. . On the downside, below 1.3456 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained well above 1.3222 support and bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg from 1.2460 is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We'd look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. However, break of 1.2968 will argue that the third leg has already started and should at least bring a retest of 1.2460 low. Meanwhile, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.