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'Uninspiring comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.' – Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management (based on investing.com)

Pair's Outlook

On Tuesday morning the common European currency continued to trade just below the 1.06 mark against the US Dollar. The rate remained almost unchanged during Monday's trading session, as the Greenback did not gain strength during the speech with mixed signals given by Janet Yellen. However, the previous technical forecast of a decline of the currency pair remains in force, as on Tuesday the lower Bollinger band has closed in on the rest of the support levels, which surround the 1.0550 level. Due to that reason the way is free for a decline.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders still remain almost neutral, as 52% of open positions are long on Tuesday, compared to 51% previously. Meanwhile, 56% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.

'There are still geopolitical concerns, such as the Syrian situation, in the background, and there are no fresh incentives or reasons to buy the dollar.' – Sony Financial Holdings (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

The British currency was able to outperform the US Dollar on Monday, but with gains limited by the tough resistance cluster around 1.2425. This cluster could prevent the Cable from recovering further, with the exchange rate once again slipped under the 1.24 mark, paving its way towards the support area just above 1.23, represented by the weekly S1 and the lower Bollinger band. However, technical indicators are unable to confirm the possibility of the bearish outcome today, thus, there is a chance the Sterling could post gains, but the second supply area, namely the weekly R1 at 1.25, is to remain out of reach.

Traders' Sentiment

There are 57% of traders being long the British Pound today, compared to 61% yesterday. At the same time, the portion of orders to sell the Sterling inched higher, namely from 53 to 56%.

'By and large, the yen does tend to appreciate when the situation across markets is one of high volatility, but there has been a squeeze in the yen, which accounts for this anomalous behavior in the sense the yen has outperformed as volatility has been quite benign.' – Societe Generale (based on Market Watch)

Pair's Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair surprised with its performance on Monday, as it erased all intraday gains and trade closed in the red zone. However, the pair managed to retain its position above the weekly pivot point, but technical indicators keep implying the Buck is to post more losses against the Yen today. Nevertheless, the 110.50 level is expected to be the lowest closing point, even though volatility is likely to stretch even lower. In case the psychological 110.50 mark fails to limit the losses, the weekly S1 at 110.28 is expected to succeed.

Traders' Sentiment

Although not as strong as yesterday, market sentiment remains bullish, now at 65% (previously 70%). Meanwhile, the portion of orders to acquire the US Dollar lost three percentage points over the day, having fallen to 57%.

'Gold should retain a measure of support given the political tensions.' – Edward Meir, INTL FCStone (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

During the early hours of Tuesday's trading session the yellow metal continued to trade just below the resistance cluster, which is located near the 1,257 mark. Just as forecasted, on Monday the bullion bounced between the just mentioned cluster and the support provided by the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1,248.96 mark. The fluctuations should continue. However, it is possible, if the political turmoil persists, that the commodity price breaks the resistance put up by the weekly PP at 1,256.96 and the 200-day SMA, which is located at the 1,256.67 mark.

Traders' Sentiment

Traders are still near the neutral zone, as 51% of open positions are short. In the meantime, 54% of trader set up orders are to buy.

Cable is holding within narrowing daily cloud in early Tuesday and so far unable to break cloud top after bouncing from double downside rejection at 1.2360 (daily Kijun-sen/30SMA). Mixed studies suggest no clear direction, as the pair is stuck between 30 and 10SMA's. Support at 1.2360 also marks 50% retracement of 1.2107/1.2613 upleg and guards another pivotal support at 1.2345 (daily cloud base). The pair is awaiting release of UK inflation data for firmer direction signals. Forecast for annualized CPI for March stands at solid 2.3% and pound is looking for release above, to spark fresh acceleration towards upper pivot at 1.2500 zone. Better than expected inflation numbers today would also support scenario of BOE's early rate hike. Conversely, release below consensus would put sterling under fresh pressure and re-expose lower pivots at 1.2360/45.

Res: 1.2430, 1.2458, 1.2500, 1.2553
Sup: 1.2401, 1.2360, 1.2345, 1.2300

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.30; (P) 117.68; (R1) 117.91; More...

EUR/JPY's fall continues and reaches as low as 116.87 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Whole fall from 124.08 should target 61.8% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 114.88 next. On the upside, above 118.05 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited by 119.31 support turned resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39 indicates that medium term rise from 109.20 is completed at 124.08. That's well below 126.09 key support turned resistance. Also, EUR/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA. Deeper decline would now be seen back to 109.20 low. Overall, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is not completed yet. Break of 109.20 will resume such down trend towards 94.11 low. In any case, break of 126.09 is needed needed to confirm medium term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.23; (P) 137.75; (R1) 138.21; More...

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook. Near term outlook stays mildly bearish and further decline is expected with 140.08 resistance intact. But still, choppy price actions from 148.42 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Hence, we'd anticipate strong support from medium term fibonacci level at 135.39 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 140.08 resistance will now indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 142.79 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern. Or, sustained break of 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 will turn outlook bearish for a test on 122.36 low. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0678; (P) 1.0684; (R1) 1.0692; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral first. But the bearish outlook is unchanged with 1.0734 resistance intact. That is, rebound from 1.0629 has completed at 1.0823. And the larger decline from 1.1198 is likely still in progress. On the downside, below 1.0668 will target 1.0620/29 key support zone. Decisive break there will resume whole fall from 1.1198 and target next long term fibonacci level at 1.0485. Nonetheless, break of 1.0734 will suggest that pull back from 1.0823 is completed and turn bias back to the upside for this resistance.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Current development suggests that it's not completed yet. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. In any case, break of 1.0823 resistance is needed to be the first indication of reversal. Otherwise, deeper fall is still expected even in case of recovery.

USD/CHF - 1.0074

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 1.0082

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.0089

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0080

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 1.0066

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.0000, Target: 1.0100, Stop: 0.9965

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0000, Target: 1.0100, Stop: 0.9965

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 1.0108 yesterday, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and initial downside risk is for pullback to 1.0050, then towards support at 1.0026, however, reckon 0.9995 support would contain weakness and bring another rise later, above indicated resistance at 1.0108-09 would extend recent upmove from 0.9813 towards 1.0140-45 but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond another previous resistance at 1.0171, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later. 

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy dollar on subsequent pullback as support at 0.9995 should limit downside. Below 0.9970 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9831-1.0108) would abort and signal top is formed instead, bring correction to support at 0.9948. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4079; (P) 1.4128; (R1) 1.4160; More...

EUR/AUD is still bounded in range of 1.3872/4309 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 1.3872 support intact, further rise is in favor. And, we're mildly favoring the case of trend reversal after defending key support level at 1.3671. On the upside, break of 1.4309 will extend the rebound from 1.3624 to 1.4721 key resistance level next. Decisive break of 1.4721 should confirm larger trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3872 support will dampen our bullish view. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.3624 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 key support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we'd expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn extend the fall from 1.6587 towards 1.1602 long term bottom.