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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8529; (P) 0.8554; (R1) 0.8582; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. Overall outlook is unchanged. Fall from 0.8786 could be developing into the third leg of the whole corrective pattern from 0.9304. And hence, deeper decline is expected ahead. On the downside, break of 0.8483 will turn bias to the downside for 0.8402 support first. Decisive break there should confirm our bearish view and target 0.8303 and below. As fall from 0.9304 is viewed as a corrective move, we'd expect strong support at 0.8116/20 cluster support to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.8604 minor resistance will delay the bearish case. That is, one more recovery will be seen to complete a five wave triangle pattern fro 0.8303 before completion.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Such decline is likely ready to resume and should make a new low below 0.8303. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) will resume at a later stage to 0.9799 (2008 high). However, sustained break of 0.8116 could bring deeper decline to next key support level at 0.7564 before the correction completes.

'The dollar extended its rebound from session lows after New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley commented on the pace of interest-rate increases.' – Lananh Nguyen and Dennis Pettit, Bloomberg

Pair's Outlook

On Monday morning the common European currency fluctuated rather flat against the US Dollar below the 1.06 level. It could be observed that the fall of the currency exchange rate is likely going to extend itself into a fourth consecutive trading session. The reason for that is the fact that the closest support to the currency exchange rate was a cluster near the 1.0550 mark, where the lower Bollinger band, weekly S1 and a long term trend line are located at. It can be expected that the pair reaches this cluster first, before rebounding.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders still remain almost neutral, as 51% of open positions are long on Monday. Meanwhile, 54% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4079; (P) 1.4128; (R1) 1.4160; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. As it is still holding above 1.3872 support, we're mildly favoring the case of trend reversal after defending key support level at 1.3671. On the upside, break of 1.4309 will extend the rebound from 1.3624 to 1.4721 key resistance level next. Decisive break of 1.4721 should confirm larger trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3872 support will dampen our bullish view. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.3624 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 key support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we'd expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn extend the fall from 1.6587 towards 1.1602 long term bottom.

USD/CHF - 1.0097

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 1.0095

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.0066

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0048

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 1.0046

Original strategy :

Buy at 0.9950, Target: 1.0050, Stop: 0.9915

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0030, Target: 1.0130, Stop: 0.9995

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The greenback has maintained a firm undertone after Friday’s rally, adding credence to our bullish view that recent upmove from 0.9813 is still in progress and upside bias remains for this move to extend further gain to previous resistance at 1.0109, then towards 1.0140-45, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond another previous resistance at 1.0171, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later. 

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy dollar on pullback as support at 1.0026 should limit downside. Below minor support at 0.9995 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk correction to 0.9960 but support at 0.9948 should hold from here. 

'There are still geopolitical concerns, such as the Syrian situation, in the background, and there are no fresh incentives or reasons to buy the dollar.' – Sony Financial Holdings (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

A rather unexpected development occurred on Friday, being that the British Pound fell under sharp selling pressure, while the Greenback soared across the board. The US NFP data sharply disappointed, but an upbeat reading of the unemployment rate, as well as a surge in US Treasury bond yields, were the catalysts. As a result, the Cable slumped back under 1.24, breaching the tough support cluster, which somewhat confirms the six-month down-trend. Technical studies insist the GBP/USD pair is to undergo a bullish correction today, but downside risks remain high, with the nearest support located only at 1.2310, namely the weekly S1.

Traders' Sentiment

Today 61% of traders hold long positions (previously 59%), whereas 53% of all pending orders are to sell the Pound, up from 50% on Friday.

GBP/USD - 1.2401

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2387

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2418

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2469

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2465

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.2450, Target: 1.2350, Stop: 1.2485

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.2450, Target: 1.2350, Stop: 1.2485

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the British pound found good support around 1.2365-66 and has recovered, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen an above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2418) would bring recovery towards 1.2450-55 before prospect of another decline, below said support at 1.2365-66 would extend recent decline from 1.2616 to 1.2350, then towards 1.2325-30 but near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon 1.2300 would hold from here.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell cable on recovery as 1.2450-60 should limit upside. Above the upper Kumo (now at 1.2469) would defer and suggest low is formed instead, risk test of resistance at 1.2506 first, break there would confirm, then a stronger rebound to 1.2525-30 would follow.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0674; (P) 1.0690; (R1) 1.0703; More...

Intraday bias is neutral in EUR/CHF remains neutral as it's staying in range above 1.0668 temporary low. The bearish outlook remains unchanged. That is, rebound from 1.0629 has completed at 1.0823. And the larger decline from 1.1198 is likely still in progress. On the downside, below 1.0668 will target 1.0620/29 key support zone. Decisive break there will resume whole fall from 1.1198 and target next long term fibonacci level at 1.0485. Nonetheless, break of 1.0734 will suggest that pull back from 1.0823 is completed and turn bias back to the upside for this resistance.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Current development suggests that it's not completed yet. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. In any case, break of 1.0823 resistance is needed to be the first indication of reversal. Otherwise, deeper fall is still expected even in case of recovery.

'We believe the sluggish employment figures are largely attributable to weather-related noise and do not believe they will greatly dampen expectations of a Fed rate hike in June. Still, US indicators are likely to be patchy for now, sapping the momentum for those with a bullish USD/JPY view.' – Deutsche Bank (based on FXStreet)

Pair's Outlook

In spite of a poor US NFP reading, the Buck still managed to recover from its intraday low and close trade in the green zone against the Yen on Friday. The recovery reconfirmed the 110.50 level as a tough psychological support, which is likely to keep the USD/JPY pair afloat in case bears take over the market again. The weekly pivot point at 110.93 is now the closest support, but a bearish development is doubtful, even though technical indicators are giving corresponding signals. Meanwhile, a surge beyond 111.70 is also unlikely to occur, being that there are no market movers present and the 20-day SMA and the weekly R1 form relatively strong resistance around that area.

Traders' Sentiment

The Greenback appears to be overbought, as 70% of all open positions are long today, compared to 67% on Friday.

'I don't think it can have a further upside as even though the (U.S. interest) rate hike expectations have come down; the direction of hikes and monetary tightening are quite clear.' – Mark To, Wing Fung Financial Group (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

The yellow metal's price has returned back to the levels just above the 1,250 mark. The jump witnessed on Friday receded, as the financial markets and the world calmed down after the US missile strikes in Syria. On Monday the bullion was squeezed in between the resistance of the 200-day SMA and the weekly PP, respectively, at 1,255.17 and 1,255.99 and the support, which is provided by the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1,248.96 mark. Most likely markets will expect the today's speech of Janet Yellen regarding monetary policy before making further decisions.

Traders' Sentiment

Trader open positions are neutral in regard to the yellow metal's price. However, 55% of trader set up orders are to buy.

EUR/USD - 1.0583

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0582

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0619

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0659

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0651

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.0725, Target: 1.0610, Stop: 1.0760

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0725, Target: 1.0610, Stop: 1.0760

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The single currency ran into renewed selling interest at 1.0667 on Friday (after NFP) and has dropped again, the breach o indicated support at 1.0600 adds credence to our bearish view that the decline from 1.0906 is still in progress and may extend further weakness towards 1.0550-55 (50% projection of 1.0906-1.0635 measuring from 1.0689), then 1.0525-30, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.0500, risk from there is seen for a rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as 1.0635 (previous support now resistance) should limit upside. Only a firm break above said resistance at 1.0667 would abort and suggest low is formed instead, risk a stronger rebound to 1.0689, then 1.0702.