Sample Category Title

USD/CHF Breaking parity.

USD/CHF is strengthening. Hourly support is given at 0.9814 (27/03/2017 low). Key resistance can be found at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to show further consolidating.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Moving sideways.

USD/CAD is struggling to go any higher. A break of resistance area around 1.3400 is needed to invalidate the current short term bearish technical structure. The road seems still wideopen for larger decline. Hourly support that can be found at 1.3265(21/03/2016 low) is at stake. Key support is given at 1.2969 (31/01/2017 low).

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low)

AUD/USD Direction-less.

AUD/USD is moving sideways. The pair has failed to test the key resistance at 0.7778 (08/11/2016 high). Expected to see some shortterm weakness towards support area around 0.7500.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Weakening.

EUR/USD is getting lower despite ongoing consolidation. The pair is heading lower since the pair failed to hold above former resistance given at 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.0652 (31/03/2017 low). Stronger support can be found at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). The short-term technical structure indicates further weakness.

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Bullish pressures.

GBP/USD's bullish pressures increase again after the pair exited short-term uptrend channel. Hourly resistance is located at 1.2615 (27/03/2017 high) while hourly support can be found at 1.2324 (03/17/2017 low). Expected to show continued strengthening towards resistance at 1.2771 (06/12/2016 high).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Moving sideways.

USD/JPY's bearish pressures are fading. Hourly resistance is given at 112.20 (31/03/2017 high). Stronger resistance can be located at 113.57 (16/03/2017 high) while support is given at 110.11 (27/03/2017 low).

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

News and Events:

RBA to stay on hold and reiterate dovish stance

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to hold the Cash Rate Target unchanged at a record 1.50% tomorrow morning at its monthly meeting. At its previous meeting, the Central Bank did not miss the opportunity to emphasise that the pick-up in inflation was mostly due to improving commodity prices. It also said that underlying inflation is expected to rise at a much slower pace during 2017.

Tomorrow’s statement will mostly be a cut-and-paste as Governor Lowe is determined to maintain a dovish stance to avoid any appreciation of the Australian Dollar, which would undermine the ongoing economic adjustment from the post-mining investment boom.

AUD/USD has continued to trade at the top of its yearly range at around 0.76-0.77. We believe that the downside adjustment in iron ore prices (futures for delivery at Qingdao port have fallen -15% since mid-February as port inventories reach extreme levels) is one factor in shifting the risk to the downside in AUD/USD. This comes together with rising uncertainties about the global demand outlook amid President Trump’s inability to pass reforms.

However, given the uncertainty generated by the Trump situation, long USD is not our favourite play. Therefore, we prefer to play a short AUD position against its closest neighbour, the New Zealand Dollar, as we believe the NZD has room for further appreciation.

French Elections: Markets wait for impact of first round

There are only three weeks remaining until the first round of the French Elections. We know that whatever may happen in those last few weeks, declarations from candidates may still have an impact on the markets. This is why Mélenchon and Macron are refusing a debate. Francois Fillon has not renounced, despite being considered out of the race in February, and we may see him increasing again in polls. His chance of a final victory is still alive.

Regarding Emmanuel Macron, many socialists are now supporting him. What should we believe from that? We believe that their endorsement is less in a desire to counter the National Front, but rather to participate in the likely new presidential majority.

The markets are still betting on a Macron victory but we assume his inexperience is going to be tough to overcome against his major competitors. The markets seem calm and the first round is going to provide us with a decent gauge.

Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

• Mar CPI MoM, exp 0,63%, last 0,81% TRY / 07:00
• Mar CPI YoY, exp 10,70%, last 10,13% TRY / 07:00
• Mar CPI Core Index YoY, exp 8,80%, last 8,56% TRY / 07:00
• Mar PPI MoM, exp -0,02%, last 1,26% TRY / 07:00
• Mar PPI YoY, exp 14,92%, last 15,36% TRY / 07:00
• Mar Manufacturing PMI, exp 52,8, last 52,6, rev 53 NOK / 07:00
• Mar Markit/ISO Turkey PMI Mfg, exp 49,8, last 49,7 TRY / 07:00
• Mar Markit Spain Manufacturing PMI, exp 54,7, last 54,8 EUR / 07:15
• Feb Retail Sales Real YoY, last -1,40%, rev -1,20% CHF / 07:15
• Mar PMI Manufacturing, exp 58, last 57,8 CHF / 07:30
• Mar Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI, exp 55,1, last 55 EUR / 07:45
• Mar F Markit France Manufacturing PMI, exp 53,4, last 53,4 EUR / 07:50
• Mar F Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI, exp 58,3, last 58,3 EUR / 07:55
• Mar F Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, exp 56,2, last 56,2 EUR / 08:00
• mars.31 Total Sight Deposits CHF, last 560.1b CHF / 08:00
• mars.31 Domestic Sight Deposits CHF, last 476.3b CHF / 08:00
• Feb P Unemployment Rate, exp 11,90%, last 11,90%, rev 11,80% EUR / 08:00
• Mar Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA, exp 55, last 54,6, rev 54,5 GBP / 08:30
• Feb PPI MoM, exp 0,10%, last 0,70%, rev 1,10% EUR / 09:00
• Feb PPI YoY, exp 4,20%, last 3,50%, rev 3,90% EUR / 09:00
• Mar Danish PMI Survey, last 57,3, rev 57,2 DKK / 09:00
• Mar Barclays Manufacturing PMI, exp 51,8, last 52,5 ZAR / 09:00
• Feb Unemployment Rate, exp 9,50%, last 9,60% EUR / 09:00
• mars.31 FGV CPI IPC-S, exp 0,47%, last 0,39% BRL / 11:00
• Feb MLI Leading Indicator MoM, last 0,60% CAD / 11:00
• Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey (Table) BRL / 11:25
• Mar Markit Brazil PMI Manufacturing, last 46,9 BRL / 13:00
• Mar Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI, last 54,7 CAD / 13:30
• Mar F Markit US Manufacturing PMI, exp 53,5, last 53,4 USD / 13:45
• mars.31 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, last 58,5 CAD / 14:00
• Mar ISM Manufacturing, exp 57,2, last 57,7 USD / 14:00
• Mar ISM Prices Paid, exp 66, last 68 USD / 14:00
• Mar ISM New Orders, last 65,1 USD / 14:00
• Mar ISM Employment, last 54,2 USD / 14:00
• Feb Construction Spending MoM, exp 1,00%, last -1,00% USD / 14:00
• 1Q Business Outlook Future Sales, last 26 CAD / 14:30
• 1Q BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey, last -2,6 CAD / 14:30
• Fed's Dudley Speaks at Press Briefing in New York USD / 14:30
• Mar New Car Registrations YoY, last 6,17% EUR / 16:00
• Apr 2 Trade Balance Weekly, last $1602m BRL / 18:00
• Fed's Harker Speaks in Philadelphia on Fintech USD / 19:00
• Richmond Fed President Lacker Speaks (Event Cancelled) USD / 21:00

The Risk Today:

EUR/USD is getting lower despite ongoing consolidation. The pair is heading lower since the pair failed to hold above former resistance given at 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.0652 (31/03/2017 low). Stronger support can be found at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). The short-term technical structure indicates further weakness.. In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD's bullish pressures increase again after the pair exited short-term uptrend channel. Hourly resistance is located at 1.2615 (27/03/2017 high) while hourly support can be found at 1.2324 (03/17/2017 low). Expected to show continued strengthening towards resistance at 1.2771 (06/12/2016 high). The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY's bearish pressures are fading. Hourly resistance is given at 112.20 (31/03/2017 high). Stronger resistance can be located at 113.57 (16/03/2017 high) while support is given at 110.11 (27/03/2017 low). We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

USD/CHF is strengthening. Hourly support is given at 0.9814 (27/03/2017 low). Key resistance can be found at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to show further consolidating. In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

European PMIs remain in expansion while unemployment continues its improving trend

Notes/Observations

ECB begins process of scaling back assets purchases in April (from €80B to €60B/month)

European PMI Manufacturing data overall shows region on firmer footing (Beats: Swiss, Italy, Norway, while UK missed expectations)

European unemployment continued its improving trend

Overnight:

Asia:

China Mar Caixin PMI Manufacturing : 51.2 v 51.7e (9th consecutive expansion)

Australia Feb Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v +0.3%e

Japan Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturiers Index: 12 v 14e

President Trump to discuss North Korea threat with China President this week; Will handle North Korea without China's help if need to; if China is not going to solve North Korea then we will (**Note: China’s Xi to meet Trump during April 6-7th at Mar-a-Lago)

Europe:

Chancellor Hammond: Brexit talks to be ‘parallel’ process; willing to have constructive negotiations to reach best possible exit deal

France Presidential Melenchon reiterates that has no intention to make way for Hamon. (**Insight: By joining forces Melenchon/Hamon would put the Left into 2nd round of upcoming elections)

S&P revised Spain outlook to Positive from Stable; affirms Spain sovereign rating at BBB+

Canadian rating agency DBRS affirmed France sovereign rating at AAA; trend Stable

Moody's affirmed Netherlands sovereign rating at Aaa; outlook Stable

Fitch affirmed Russia sovereign debt rating at BBB- (lowest level of investment grade); outlook Stable

Economic Data

(IE) Ireland Mar Manufacturing PMI: 53.6 v 53.8 prior (46th month of expansion)

(RU) Russia Mar Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 v 52.5e (8th month of expansion)

(IN) India Mar Manufacturing PMI: 52.5 v 50.7 prior

(JP) Japan Mar Domestic Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 13.8% v 13.4% prior

(SE) Sweden Mar PMI Manufacturing: 65.2 v 60.0e

(TR) Turkey Mar CPI M/M: 1.0% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 11.3% v 10.7%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 9.5% v 8.8%e

(NL) Netherlands Mar Manufacturing PMI: 57.8 v 58.3 prior (44th month of expansion)

(NO) Norway Mar Manufacturing PMI: 54.7 v 52.8e

(HU) Hungary Mar Manufacturing PMI: 56.0 v 58.0e (15th month of expansion)

(PL) Poland Mar PMI Manufacturing PMI: 53.5 v 54.6e (28th month of expansion)

(TR) Turkey Mar Manufacturing PMI: 49.8e (1st expansion in 13 months and highest since Feb 2014)

(ES) Spain Mar Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 v 54.7e (42nd month of expansion)

(CZ) Czech Mar Manufacturing PMI: 57.5 v 57.5e &th month of expansion)

(CH) Swiss Mar Manufacturing PMI: 58.6 v 58.0e (highest level in over six years)

(IT) Italy Mar Manufacturing PMI: 55.7 v 55.1e (7th month of expansion and the highest since Mar 2011)

(FR) France Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 v 53.4e (confirms 6th month of expansion)

(DE) Germany Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 58.3 v 58.3e (confirms its 28th month of expansion and highest since Apr 2011)

(EU) Euro Zone Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 56.2 v 56.2e (confirms 44th straight month of growth and highest since April 2011)

(GR) Greece Mar Manufacturing PMI: 46.7 v 47.7 prior (7th month of contraction)

(IT) Italy Feb Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 11.5% v 11.9%e

(UK) Mar PMI Manufacturing: 54.2 v 55.0e (8th month of expansion)

(EU) Euro Zone Feb Unemployment Rate: 9.5% v 9.5%e (lowest since 2009)

Fixed Income Issuance:

(NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 12-month bills; Yield: 0.48% v 0.48% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.72x v 2.74x prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Index snapshot (as of 10:00 GMT)**

Indices [Stoxx50 flat at 3,499, FTSE flat at 7,320, DAX +0.2% at 12,341, CAC-40 -0.1% at 5,116, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 10,431, FTSE MIB -0.2% at 20,459, SMI +0.2% at 8,671, S&P 500 Futures -0.2%]

Equities

Consumer discretionary [Burberry BRBY.UK +2% (Strategic partnership with Coty), ITV ITV.UK -2% (Fading Friday spike before close)] Aurulius +5% (Responds to Gotham's assertions)]

Industrials: [Schmolz+Bickenbach STLN.CH +6.5% (Feb trading update), Aurubis NDA.DE +2.0% (

Technology: [Imagination Tech IMG.UK -65% (Apple to no longer use IMG intellectual property in its new products), Sartorius SRT.DE -1.3% (Acquisition, raised guidance)

Speakers

ECB's Coeure (France): Expect new cash collateral facility to help reduce tensions but not a panacea. Governing Council will continue to monitor there development

ECB's Rimsevics (Latvia): Slow lending affecting economy; ECB stimulus is not flowing into economy

Turkey Econ Min Zeybekci: FX impact on inflation to continue

Japan PM Abe's advisor Nakahara: BOJ should make a clean break from its current policy approach after Gov Kuroda’s term ends next spring

Libya’s Sharara oil field said to resume production over the weekend

Nigeria Nupeng Oil union said to begin strike over improved pay

Currencies

FX markets began the new quarter on relatively quiet footing.

April marked the beginning of the scaling back of ECB bond buying purchases from €80B to €60B per month until the program ends in Dec. Various ECB speakers noted that THE PROCESS WAS not any signal start of tapering as it had the option to be more expansionary if needed.

EUR/USD little changed at 1.0670 area.

GBP/USD was slightly lower as UK Mar Manufacturing PMI again missed expectations. The pair was softer by 0.5% in the lower end of the 1.25 handle just ahead of the NY morning.

Fixed Income:

Bund futures trade at 161.66 up 24 ticks trading at 1 month highs despite strength in Stocks. Continued upside targets 161.87 followed by 162.18 then 162.33. Analysts eye support at 161.21 followed by 160.06 then 160.74.

Gilt futures trade at 127.53 down 4 ticks, little changed with Mar PMI Manufacturing data coming slightly short of estimates but still marking an 8th month of expansion. Resistance remains at 127.69 followed by 127.89. Support remains at 127.05 then 126.86 followed by 126.40. Short Sterling futures curve continues to flatten with the rise in Gilts with the Jun17Jun18 spread trading down to 17/17.5bp down 2bp on the day.

Monday's liquidity report showed Friday's excess liquidity fell to €1.512T a fall of €22B from €1.534T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility rose to €285M from €110M prior.

Corporate issuance saw Q1 end with $399B being issued marking an active start to the year. Looking ahead analysts eye weeks issuance to in the region of $25B.

In Euro denominated issuance €21.8B came to market last week via 36 issuers and 41 tranches. Issuance peaked on Thursday when €6.6B came to market.

Looking Ahead

06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

07:00 (CA) Canada Feb Leading Indicator M/M: No est v 0.6% prior

07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)

07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey

08:00 (CZ) Czech Mar Budget Balance (CZK): No est v 3.7B prior

08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 46.9 prior

08:00 (CL) Chile Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: 0.7%e v 3.8% prior

08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming actions

08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v -0.1% prior

08:15 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €4.7-5.9B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month BTF Bills

09:00 (SG) Singapore Mar Purchasing Managers Index: 50.8e v 50.9 prior; Electronic Sector: No est v 51.4 prior

09:30 (CA) Canada Mar Manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.7 prior

09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender

09:45 (US) Mar Markit Final Manufacturing PMI: 53.5e v 53.4 prelim

09:45 (US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter) spekas in NY

10:00 (US) Mar ISM Manufacturing: 57.2e v 57.7 prior; Prices Paid: 66.0e v 68.0 prior

10:00 (US) Feb Construction Spending M/M: +1.0%e v -1.0% prior

10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Total Remittances: $2.2Be v $2.1B prior

10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey

10:00 (BR) Brazil Feb CNI Capacity Utilization: No est v 77.2% prior

10:30 (MX) Mexico Mar Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.6 prior

10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Q1 Senior Loan Officer Survey: No est v -2.6 prior; Business Outlook Future Sales: No est v 26 prior

11:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Exports: $2.9Be v $2.6B prior

11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-month Bills

12:00 (IT) Italy Mar New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 6.2% prior

13:00 (MX) Mexico Mar IMEF Manufacturing Index: 48.0e v 46.8 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: 47.9e v 46.2 prior

(BR) Brazil Mar Trade Balance: $6.9Be v $4.6B prior; Exports: $20.4Be v $15.5B prior; Imports: $13.4Be v 10.9B prior

15:00 (US) Fed's Harker (hawk, FOMC voter) speaks in Philadelphia

17:00 (US) Fed's Lacker (hawk, non-voter) speaks in Virginia

(RO) Romania Mar International Reserves: No est v $38.4B prior

(RU) Russia Mar Sovereign Wealth Fund Balances: Reserve Fund: No est v $16.1B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $72.6B prior

(AR) Argentina Central Bank Expectation Survey

(IT) Italy Mar Budget Balance: No est v -€8.2B prior

EUR/USD has seen a substantial retracement since March 27, after testing the significant resistance level at 1.0900.

The price has been trading below the 10 SMA since then, indicating the upside selling pressure is still heavy.

On the 4-hourly chart, the price has been holding above the 200 SMA since March 31, where there is stronger support.

The daily Stochastic Oscillator reading is below 10, suggesting a rebound.

The resistance level is at 1.0670, followed by 1.0685 and 1.0700.
The support line is at 1.0650, followed by 1.0630 and 1.0600.

'The dollar got some support last week from month-end buying and came off its lows, but overall its heaviness remains unchanged.' – Daiwa Securities (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

The Sterling received a boost from upbeat fundamental data on Friday, which allowed it to outperform the American Dollar and retest the six-month down-trend. Technically, the GBP/USD currency pair should now bounce back from the trend-line, undergoing a bearish correction. The weekly pivot point represents immediate support at 1.2516, but is unlikely to limit the losses should those occur. At the same time, the second demand area, namely the cluster circa 1.2420, is also expected to remain out of reach today. The base case scenario is a close around 1.2490/80 zone.

Traders' Sentiment

Market sentiment is somewhat neutral today, as 53% of all open positions are long and the remaining 47% are short. Concerning the pending orders, 52% of them are to purchase the British currency.

'Before resuming its uptrend in the medium term, we think USD/JPY will likely be capped in the near term.' – Deutsche Bank (based on FXStreet)

Pair's Outlook

As was anticipated, the USD/JPY currency pair was unable to reclaim the 112.00 mark, resulting in a 53-pip loss on Friday. Nevertheless, more bearish momentum is possible, but unlikely, since the pair rebounded after approaching the descending channel's support line last week. Currently, the Buck is making its way towards the channel's upper border, with the 112.00 handle being one of the main obstacles. However, technical indicators are unable to confirm the possibility of a positive outcome today, as they keep giving bearish signals. Another setback is possible, but the US Dollar is expected to hold above 110.00, therefore, refrain from retesting the lower trend-line any time soon.

Traders' Sentiment

There are 69% of traders holding long positions today (previously 71%), whereas 54% of all pending orders are to acquire the Greenback.

'If France and Germany are not on the same page anymore, it means that political backing is no longer there, and there's not much the ECB can do.' – Guntram Wolff, Bruegel Institute (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook

During the early hours of Monday's trading session the common European currency scored slight gains against the US Dollar. However, the currency exchange rate was still positioned for further losses. The pair faced the resistance put up by the 55-day SMA, which was located at the 1.0674 level, and the monthly PP at 1.0685 mark. The fall of the currency pair might be hindered by the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1.0639 level. The retracement level is also supported by the 100-day SMA at the 1.0624 level. However, a hindrance for long is unlikely.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders remain bearish on the pair, as 57% of open positions are short on Monday. Meanwhile, 53% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.

'The interest rate hike cycle has set in and that might keep gold in a wide range of $1,200-$1,250 as the opportunity cost of holding non-interest rate bearing gold is more.' – Mark To, Wing Fung Financial Group (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

On Monday morning the yellow metal attempted to break above the 1,250 mark, as it faced resistance put up by the weekly PP at 1,249.67 and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1,248.96 mark. If the bullion succeeds, it will likely jump to the 1,257.02 level, where the 200-day SMA is located at. However, in the case of a failure the commodity price has no support as low as the 1,238.33 level, where the weekly S1 is positioned. The weekly S1 is also supported by the freshly calculated monthly PP at the 1,234.74 level.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders are neutral on the metal, as 50% of open positions are long. However, 63% of trader set up orders are to buy the yellow metal.

The Aussie stays in red on Monday and extends losses below 0.7600, coming ticks ahead of last week's low at 0.7585.

Larger pullback from 0.7747 was so far contained here (support is formed by Fibo 61.8% of 0.7489/0.7747 rally), with limited recover (capped at 0.7677) and subsequent weakness threatening for firm break below 0.7585 pivot) bearish signal) for retest of another strong support at 0.7547 (200SMA).

The price is back into thick daily cloud (spanned between 0.7448 and 0.7651) after being unable to hold above the cloud.

Daily studies are weakening and supportive for further easing, with 0.7585 seen as key point.

South-turned Tenkan-sen offers solid resistance at 0.7636, guarding upper pivot at 0.7651 (daily cloud top) which is expected to cap extended upticks.

Res: 0.7636, 0.7651, 0.7685, 0.7709
Sup: 0.7585, 0.7547, 0.7506, 0.7489