Sample Category Title

USD/JPY - 113.45

Original strategy  :

Sell at 114.00, Target: 113.00, Stop: 114.35

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 114.00, Target: 113.00, Stop: 114.35

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback tumbled today and dropped below 113.00 level, lack of follow through selling and current rebound suggest consolidation above support at 112.90 would be seen and recovery to 113.55-60 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 114.00-05 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 112.90 would extend the fall from 115.51 to 112.76-77, then towards 112.50 but reckon downside would be limited to 112.00-10, bring rebound later.

In view of this, we are looking to sell dollar on recovery as 114.00 should limit upside. Only above previous support at 114.48-52 would abort and signal low is formed instead, risk a stronger rebound to 114.89 resistance first, break there would signal the retreat from 115.51 has ended, then gain to 115.20 resistance would follow.

Central bank decisions remain in focus SNB and Norges keeps policy steady; BOE expected to do the same

Notes/Observations

Easing off the monetary accommodation (Fed and HKMA hike; PBoC tweaks operations)

Netherland PM Rutte beats anti-Islam leader Wilder in national election as PVV party again the the largest component for 3rd time in a row; Dutch say ‘no' to the wrong kind of populism as it stemmed rise of European far-right

SNB leaves policy unchanged and reiterates to remain active on FX as CHF currency (Swiss) seen as significantly overvalued

Norway Central Bank (Norges) Policy Statement tilted on the dovish side

Overnight:

Asia:

Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) raised its Base Rate by 25bps to 1.25%, tracking FOMC hike (Reminder USD/HKD is pegged)

Bank of Japan (BOJ) keeps policy unchanged (as expected). Leaves Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (IOER) unchanged at -0.10% and maintain its policy framework of "QQE with Yield Control" and asset purchases at annual pact of ¥80T; maintains its economic assessment of a gradual moderate recovery

PBoC raised interest rates on operations for the 3rd straight month by 10 basis points on medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans and its open market operation reverse repurchase agreements; by 20bps on Short-Term Lending Facility (SLF) to help steady yuan currency and address debt issue; PBoC reiterated that no change in its overall monetary policy stance after rate moves

Australia Mar Consumer Inflation Expectation hits a 3-month low (4.0% v 4.1% prior)

Australia Feb Employment Change disappoints as it registers its first decline in 5 months (-6.4K v +16.0Ke) while Unemployment Rate hits a 13-month high (5.9% v 5.7%e)

Europe:

Dutch political parties preparing to start a long process of coalition talks after PM Rutte's VVD party easily won national elections; VVD has 33 seats, eight fewer than in 2012. The far-right populist Party for Freedom of Wilders is second with 20 seats, five more than the last time but still a stinging setback

Americas:

Fed raises Interest Rates by 25bps (as expected) with vote at 9-1 with Kashkari dissenting (unanimous was expected)

Hawaii federal judge blocks President Trump's new travel ban hours before it was due to begin

President Trump budget plan said to cut 10% from overall budget; request $30B in supplemental funds for defense and border security in FY17; cut EPA funds by 31% and State Dept by 28% - Moody's raised Brazil sovereign outlook to stable from negative; affirmed its Ba2 rating

Economic data

(CH) Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its Sight Deposit Interest Rate unchanged at -0.75% and maintained the 3-Month Libor Range from between -0.25 to -1.25% (as expected)

(SE) Sweden Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.3%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adj): 6.8% v 6.8%e

(HK) Hong Kong Feb Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.3%e

(NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) left Deposit Rates unchanged at 0.50% (as expected)

Fixed Income Issuance:

(ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €4.18B vs. €4.0-5.0B indicated range in 2022, 2026, 2028 and 2046 bonds

Sold €1.67B in 0.4% Apr 2022 SPGB; Avg yield: 0.548% v 0.487% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.45x v 1.88x prior

Sold €1.39B in 1.30% Oct 2026 SPGB; Avg yield: 1.682% v 1.450% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.56x v 1.41x prior

Sold €1.08B in 5.15% Oct 2028 bono; Avg Yield 1.935% v 1.894% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.33x v 1.67x prior

Sold €674M in 2.90% Oct 2046 Oblig; Avg Yield 3.044% v 2.761% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.56x v 1.43x prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Index snapshot (as of 09:40 GMT)

Indices [Stoxx50 +1.1% at 3,447, FTSE +1.0% at 7,439, DAX +1.0% at 12,134, CAC-40 +0.8% at 5,025, IBEX-35 +1.6% at 10,142, FTSE MIB +1.6% at 20,085, SMI -0.3% at 8,666, S&P 500 Futures +0.2%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity indices are trading sharply higher after the Fed decided to hike interest rates overnight as expected; Market participants await the BoE monetary policy decision and post-decision comments scheduled later today; Banking stocks leading the gains once again across Europe with the heavily peripheral-lender weighted Spanish IBEX and FTSE MIB indices the outperformers as a result; Energy, commodity and mining stocks trading notably higher in the FTSE 100 as copper and oil prices trade sharply higher intraday; shares of Anglo American leading the gains in the index after Peru's Volcan announced plans to acquire up to a £2B stake.

Upcoming scheduled US earnings (pre-market) include Dollar General, JA Solar, and Moneygram International.

Equities (as of 09:30 GMT)

Consumer Discretionary: [Bechtle BC8.DE +1.3% (final FY16 results, div increase), Lufthansa LHA.DE +4.1% (Q4 results)]

Consumer Staples: [Sainsbury SBRY.UK -0.1% (Q4 sales)]

Energy: [Bourbon GBB.FR -6.3% (final FY16 results)]

Financials: [Generali G.IT +2.7% (FY16 results), OneSavings Bank OSB.UK -1.3% (FY16 results)]

Healthcare: [Emis EMIS.UK -2.3% (FY16 results), Medivir MVIRB.SE +0.7% (out-licensing agreement with Janssen), Shire SHP.UK -0.5% (EU approval for CINRYZE)]

Industrials: [Anglo American AAL.UK +9.1% (Peru's Volcan plans to acquire £2B stake), Balfour Beatty BBY.UK -1.9% (FY16 results), Salini Impregilo SAL.IT +3.4% ($435M Dubai contract)]

Materials: [K+S SDF.DE -0.9% (Q4 results)]

Technology: [IMImobile IMO.UK +0.6% (signs global agreement with Telenor)]

Speakers

ECB's Liikanen (Finland) reiterated Council view that Euro-area growth has become more broad-based but stimulus was still needed as inflation not yet on target

SNB Quarterly Statement reiterated that the CHF currency (Franc) remained significantly overvalued and would remain active in FX markets and intervene if necessary. It also reiterated that it saw a moderate economic recovery but marked with considerable uncertainty due to international factors

Norway Central Bank (Norges) Policy Statement noted that it saw the key rate at current level in 'period ahead' and prospects that inflation would be lower than expected earlier. Reiterates it still saw slightly higher chance of rate cut vs. hike

Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen post rate decision press conference noted that it policy was expansionary and that the Outlook on growth was that it would accelerate while inflation was seen lower than forecasted earlier

Italy Fin Min Padoan reiterated that domestic economic growth pace will accelerate in both 2017 and 2018

Turkey Presidential advisor Gedikli reiterated view that TRY currency (Lira) FX fluctuations die to manipulation and speculation

German Fin Min Schaeuble commented on upcoming G20 (Germany hosts it): Communique should send message that international cooperation continues during a time of growing geo-political risks. To pursue US as to its trade and tax policies; does not expect US to roll back all of its financial market regulations that were introduced. Rejection of foreign exchange rate manipulation likely to remain in final communique

Poland Central Bank's Lon stated that he saw no need to change rates over the next 12 months as did not see any bad effects of negative real interest rates

BOJ Gov Kuroda post rate decision press conferencereiterated view that domestic recovery was on a moderate trend and would adjust policy as needed. Reiterated that BOJ continue with its powerful easing via QQE (bond buying) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) as long as necessary to achieve the 2% inflation target as momentum for 2% inflation target was not strong enough. Saw no change on Ministry of Finance (MOF) stance on FX

Currencies

The USD retraced some of its post FOMC losses after US yields plunged after the Fed hiked interest rates by 25bps (as expected) but maintained its outlook for gradual hikes (aka ‘dovish hike'). Dealers had noted that the greenback rally needed the expectations of a faster pace of rate hikes to maintain its post Trump election rally. The USD was at 1-month lows against numerous pairs as a result that two more Fed hikes were seen in 2017 (in-line with prior Fed views).

EUR/USD stayed above the 1.07 handle to test 5-week highs neat 1.0750 area after Dutch PM Rutte beat anti-Islam leader Wilder. Party for Freedom of Wilders came in 2nd place with 20 seats (5 more than the last time) but the overall results was viewed as a stinging setback

USD/JPY tested the 113.00 during the BOJ Kuroda post rate decision press conference but rebounded during the European morning. The pair was little changed from its Asian opening of 113.45 as the NY morning approached

China's CNY currency (yuan) also firmed and was bolstered by hikes in its short-term rates for reverse reops, SLF and MLF operations (3rd such hike this year).

Fixed Income:

Bund futures trade at 159.81 down 29 ticks reversing opening gains as initial strength from a more dovish FED was countered by strong gains in European indices. A move back towards highs targets 160.47 followed by 160.66. Support lies 159.42 followed by week and contract low at 158.73.

Gilt futures trade at 126.40 down 3 ticks fading earlier gains in line with Bunds ahead of the BoE rate decision later today. Support moves to 126.14 followed by 125.75 then 125.57 with further weakness eyeing 125.24. Resistance moves to 126.75 then 126.87 followed by 127.35. Short Sterling futures trade flat to slightly higher with Jun17Jun18 spread flattening to 15/15.5bp.

Thursday liquidity report showed Wednesday's excess liquidity rose to €1.373T a rise of €0.4B from €1.3726T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility fell to €128M from €976M prior.

Corporate issuance saw just one issuer coming to market with CA Inc selling $850M in a 2 part offering. This puts weekly issuance at $19.2B. Issuance is expected to pick up following the conclusion of the FED rate decision.

Looking Ahead

(ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) Interest Decision: Expected to leave 7-Day Reverse Repurchase Rate unchanged at 4.75%

05:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €6.0-7.0B in 2020 and 2022 Oats (3 tranches)

06:00 (EU) Euro Zone Feb CPI M/M: +0.4%e v -0.8% prior; Y/Y (Final reading): 2.0%e v 2.0% advance; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.9%e v 0.9% advance

06:00 (GR) Greece Q4 Unemployment Rate: No est v 22.6% prior

06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing - 06:00 (SE) Sweden to sell I/L Bonds

06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Bonds (3 tranches)

06:30 (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) to sell €500M in 12-month Bills

06:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €1.5-2.0B in 2023, 2030 and 2040 I/L bonds (Oatei)

07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Benchmark Repurchase Rate unchanged at 8.00%

07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

08:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%

08:30 (US) Mar Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 30.0e v 43.3 prior

08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 240Ke v 243K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.05Me v 2.058M prior

08:30 (US) Feb Housing Starts: 1.26Me v 1.246M prior; Building Permits: 1.27Me v 1.293M prior (revised from 1.285M)

08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Int'l Securities Transactions (CAD): No est v 10.2B prior

08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales

08:30 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble participates on panel at IIF Conference, Frankfurt

09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Mar 10th: No est v $393.4B prior

09:00 (PL) Poland Jan Current Account: +€0.3Be v -€0.5B prior; Trade Balance: +€0.4Be v -€0.2B prior

09:00 (PL) Poland Feb Employment M/M: 0.1%e v 2.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.5%e v 4.5% prior

09:00 (PL) Poland Feb Average Gross Wages M/M: 0.7%e v -7.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.3% prior

09:15 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

10:00 (US) Jan JOLTS Job Openings: 5.562Me v 5.501M prior

10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories

11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2017, 2019 and 2020 LTN Bills

11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed Rate 2023 and 2027 Bonds

15:00 (AR) Argentina Q4 Unemployment Rate: 8.0%e v 8.5% prior

17:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank (BCCH) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Overnight Rate Target by 25bps to 3.00%

On the hourly chart of GBPUSD, we are looking a a new reversal higher being made, after some support came kicking in at the 1.2109 level. We see blue wave one, which may have just found some resistance around the 1.2308 zone and current intraday weakness may be wave two, which can see some support around the 50.0 or 61.8 Fibonacci ratio.

GBPUSD, 1H

'All told, the combination of meagre wage growth despite very low unemployment supports the Monetary Policy Committee's view that enough slack remains in the labour market to warrant keeping rates on hold during the imminent period of high inflation'. - Samuel Tombs, Pantheon Macroeconomics

The British unemployment rate hit its lowest level since 1975 in the three-month period to January, while the number of Britons filing for unemployment benefits dropped for the third consecutive month in February. The Office for National Statistics reported on Wednesday that the claimant count fell 11,300 to 734,700, the lowest level since May 1975, last month, following January's downwardly revised decline of 41,400 and surpassing analysts' expectations for a rise of 3,200. The ONS also reported that the unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, the lowest since the summer of 1975, in three months to January, amid a 31,000 decline in the number of unemployed people. Meanwhile, analysts expected the rate to remain unchanged from the prior period at 4.8%. On the downside, average earnings rose just 2.2% on an annual basis in January, after climbing 2.6% in the prior month, whereas economists penciled in a 2.4% increase. The ONS senior statistician David Freeman said that even though the unemployment rate hit its lowest since 1975, slow wage growth and surging inflation raised concerns over the health of the UK labour market. After the release, the British Pound rose markedly against the US Dollar, touching its intraday high at 1.2257.

'We have seen the economy progress over the last several months in exactly the way we anticipated'. - Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve

As analysts expected, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates at its March monetary policy meeting on Wednesday amid rising inflation, solid economic growth and the strong labour market. The Central bank lifted its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75% to 1.00%. This was the necessary step to get the Bank's monetary policy back to a normal footing. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a statement that the economy performed strong over the last couple of months, in line with policymakers' forecasts. The Fed also confirmed its intention to raise rates at least two more times this year, if the economy remains on the track. Fed officials noted that inflation was close to the Bank's target of 2% and corporate investment rebounded after a few months of weakness. Analysts suggest that interest rates are unlikely to return to a neutral level until the end of 2019. Moreover, some analysts see a faster pace of increases in 2017. Earlier on the day, the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported consumer prices rose 0.1% last month, following January's gains of 0.6% and surpassing analysts' expectations for a 0.0% reading. Meanwhile, core inflation advanced 0.2%, slightly down from a 0.3% climb seen in January but in line with forecasts. Other data released showed retail sales and core retail sales rose 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

The pair came under strong pressure after dovish Fed on Wednesday and extended losses in early Thursday, probing below 113.00 support.

Sharp reversal after multiple failures to break above daily cloud, turned near-term picture into full bearish mode, with long red candle that was left on Wednesday, signaling reversal and weighing strongly on the market.

Fresh weakness cracked 113.13 support (Fibo 61.8% of 111.67/115.49 upleg) with close below it to generate another bearish signal for extension towards next target at 112.57 (Fibo 76.4%).

Broken daily Kijun-sen offers initial resistance at 113.58, with thickening daily cloud (cloud base lies at 114.17 today), maintaining strong pressure and expected to cap upticks.

Res: 113.58' 114.07' 114.17' 114.87
Sup: 113.13' 112.89' 112.57' 112.00

Yesterday's strong rally that spiked to 1.2306 sidelined immediate downside pressure and signaled near-term base at 1.2140 zone, where multiple downside rejections were seen in recent days.

However, overall picture remains negative as daily studies are in the negative territory and MA's in bearish setup.

This suggests that selling upticks scenario is still in play, as the pair cracked pivot at 1.2300 but failed to clearly break it (the rally stalled just under falling 20SMA, currently at 1.2315).

Lower pivot lies at 1.2210 (daily Tenkan-sen) and return below it would signal renewed attempt lower for final close below 1.2155 trigger (Fibo 76.4% of 1.1986/1.2704 rally).

On the other side, sustained break above 1.2343 (daily Kijun-sen) would signal extended recovery towards daily Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 1.2379 and 1.2435).

Res: 1.2308' 1.2315' 1.2343' 1.2379
Sup: 1.2249' 1.2231' 1.2210' 1.2183

EUR/GBP         –  0.8739

EUR/GBP – The major (A)(B)(C)-(X)-(A)(B)(C) correction from 0.9805 is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

As the single currency has eased after meeting resistance at 0.8788, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.8650-60 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.8630 and renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.8600, bring another rise later. Above said resistance at 0.8788 would extend the rebound from 0.8403 towards indicated resistance at 0.8857 which is likely to hold from here.

Our latest preferred count is that the wave V of a 5-wave series from 0.5682 ended at 0.9805 earlier and major from there has possibly ended at 0.8067 as A-B-C-X-A-B-C. We are keeping our view that the entire correction from 0.9805 has possibly ended at 0.7756 and as labeled as the attached daily chart and impulsive move from 0.9084 has ended at 0.7756 as a 5-waver which marked either the (C) wave or the A leg of (C), a daily close above resistance at 0.8831 would suggest (C) leg has ended and headway towards 0.9084.

On the downside, whilst pullback to 0.8650-60 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 0.8600 and bring another rise later. Below 0.8545-50 would defer and suggest top is formed instead, and risk weakness to 0.8500-10 but break there is needed to provide confirmation and suggest the rebound from 0.8403 has ended.
 
Recommendation: Buy at 0.8600 for 0.8750 with stop below 0.8500.

Euro's long term uptrend started in Feb 1981 at 0.5039 and is unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) move with (A): 0.8433 (Feb 1993), (B): 0.5682 (May 2000) and impulsive wave (C) should have ended at 0.9805 with wave III ended at 0.7254 (May 2003), triangle wave IV at 0.6536 (23 Jan 2007) and wave V as well as wave (C) has ended at 0.9805.

We are keeping an alternate count that only wave III ended at 0.9805 and the correction from there is the wave IV and may extend weakness to 0.7700, however, it is necessary to see a daily close above resistance at 0.9143 would change this to be the preferred count.

USD/CAD – 1.3507

USD/CAD – Wave v ended at 0.9407 and a-b-c correction may extend gain to 1.4700

As the greenback has retreated after surging to 1.3535 late last week, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.3395-00 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3370-75 and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.3535 would signal the rise from 1.2969 is still in progress for retest of 1.3599 top, once this level is penetrated, this would confirm the erratic rise from 1.2461 low has resumed for a stronger correction of early decline from 1.4690 (2016 high) to 1.3700 and later towards 1.3790-00, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3835-40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4690-1.2461) and bring retreat later.

We are keeping our view that the wave b from 1.0657 (a leg top) has possibly ended at 0.9633 with (a): 0.9800, wave (b): 1.0447 and wave c at 0.9633, the subsequent rise from there is now treated as wave c exceeded indicated upside target at 1.3770-80 and 1.4000 and wave (3) has possibly ended at 1.4690 and wave (4) correction has commenced for retracement back to 1.2832 support, then 1.2410-20.

On the daily chart, our latest preferred count remains that the A of (B) rally from 0.9059 low (7 Nov 2007) unfolded into an impulsive wave with i: 0.9059-1.0380, ii ended at 0.9819, iii at 1.3019 followed by triangle wave iv at 1.2026 , then wave v formed a top at 1.3066 and also ended the wave A. The wave B is unfolding as an double three a-b-c-x-a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c at 1.0784, followed by wave x at 1.1725, another set of a-b-c unfolded with 2nd a at 0.9931, 2nd b at 1.0674. the 2nd c has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3900 had been met and gain to 1.4700 would follow.

On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.3395-00 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3370-75 and bring another upmove to aforesaid upside targets. Below 1.3290-00 would defer and suggest a temporary top is formed, bring correction to 1.3275-80  and then test of previous resistance at 1.3210-12 (now support). Only below this level would suggest the rebound from 1.2969 has ended and prolong choppy trading, bring weakness to 1.3100 but downside should be limited to 1.3056 support, bring rebound later. 
 
Recommendation: Buy at 1.3380 for 1.3580 with stop below 1.3280.

Longer term - The selloff from 1.6194 (21 Jan 2002) to 0.9059 (07 Nov 2007) is viewed as (A) wave which is a 5-waver as labeled on the monthly chart as below, the subsequently rally is labeled as (B) with impulsive A leg of (B) ended at 1.3066, wave B of (B) is unfolding which has either ended at 0.9407 or would extend one more fall but downside should be limited to 0.9200 and 0.9000 should hold.

EUR/JPY - 121.51

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy:

Exit long entered at 121.80,

Position: - Long at 121.80
Target: -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Buy at 121.30, Target: 123.30, Stop: 120.70

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

Although the single currency slipped again today, as this move from 122.89 is viewed as retracement of recent upmove, reckon downside would be limited to 121.10-15 and bring rebound later, above resistance at 122.06 would suggest low is possibly formed, bring test of previous support at 122.14 but break of latter level is needed to add credence to this view, bring another test of said resistance at 122.89, above there would revive bullishness and extend recent rise from 118.24 to 123.30-35. Looking ahead, a sustained breach above this level is needed to retain bullishness and signal early erratic fall from 124.10 top has ended at 118.24, bring further rise to 123.85-90 first.

In view of this, we are looking to reinstate long on dips. Below 120.90-00 would defer and risk correction of recent upmove to 120.45-50 but downside should be limited and price should stay well above support at 120.02 and bring another rise later. 

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i - 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii - 97.03, wave iv - 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).