Sample Category Title

• The Housing starts were stronger than market expectations for 1,264k annualized units.
• The increase relative to January (1,251k) was in single unit structures, which recorded a fresh cycle high in February. Multi-unit starts moderated in the month but remained firm relative to last year's pace.
• Regionally, all of the increase was in the West as starts rebounded following a sharp decline in the previous month.
• A mild start to the year likely provided some boost to homebuilding activity in January and February.
• Permit issuance slowed to 1,213k in February although the three-month trend in permits remained at a 1½ year high.

Our Take:

After remaining range-bound for much of last year, housing starts picked up toward the end of 2016 - a trend that has continued so far this year with activity remaining firm in January and February. We see a number of fundamentals - including a strong labour market and income growth, accommodative financial conditions, further easing in mortgage lending standards, and tight supply in the resale market - supporting continued improvement in homebuilding this year. As well, solid permit issuance and rising homebuilders' confidence (the latter now close to the previous cycle's peak when starts were running above 2 million) point to activity remaining strong in the near-term, even if some of the recent warm-weather boost trails off in the coming months. We look for housing to make a decent contribution to GDP growth this year; today's stronger-than-expected increase boosts our monitoring for Q1 residential investment (a double-digit annualized increase now looks within reach), supporting our forecast for 2% growth in the current quarter.

USD/CAD is steady on Thursday, after posting strong losses in the Wednesday session. In North American trade, the pair is trading at the 1.33 line. On the release front, Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases dropped sharply to C$6.20 billion, short of the forecast of C$9.45 billion. This was the smallest reading in 6 months. In the US, Building Permits fell to 1.21 million, missing the estimate of 1.26 million. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index dropped sharply to 32.8, above the forecast of 30.2 points. On the labor front, unemployment claims ticked down to 241 thousand, beating the forecast of 245 thousand. On Friday, Canada releases Manufacturing Sales and the US will publish the UoM Consumer Sentiment report.

There were no raised eyebrows when the Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday. The hike, the second in just three months, raised the raised the benchmark lending rate to a 0.75%-1% range. What was not expected, however, was the sharp drop of the dollar against its major rivals. The markets were hoping that a red-hot US economy would propel the Fed to accelerate its pace of monetary tightening. There was disappointment as Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that further rate hikes would be done gradually, pushing the dollar on Wednesday. As well, the US dollar may have lost ground due to traders and investors acting on "buy on rumor, sell on fact". This larges-scale selling of US dollars after the Fed hike has sent the US dollar broadly lower, with USD/CAD declined 1.1 percent in the Wednesday session.

Oil remains under strong pressure, and weak crude prices could weigh on the Canadian dollar. West Texas crude plunged 8.7 percent last week and dipped below the $47 level on Tuesday. This was in response to reports that Saudi Arabia has increased oil production above 10 million barrels a day, raising concerns about a global oil glut. Meanwhile, US Crude Oil Inventories finally reversed directions, posting a drawdown of 0.2 million barrels, compared to an estimate of 3.3 million. This decline comes after the indicator posted 11 surpluses in the past 12 weeks, reflective of increasing US shale production. The string of surpluses has dampened OPEC's hopes of raising prices, as the cartel cut production levels at the beginning of January. Compliance with the agreement stands at an impressive 94% and OPEC had high hopes of pushing crude to $60 or more, but oil prices continue to lose ground in 2017.

USD/CAD - 1.3301

 
Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term up

 
Original strategy       :

Bought at 1.3350, stopped at 1.3290

Position: - Long at 1.3350

Target:  -

Stop: - 1.3290

 
New strategy             :

Stand aside

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop:-

Yesterday’s selloff on broad-based weakness in the greenback dampened our bullishness and suggests top has been formed at 1.3535 earlier and near term downside risk remains for at least a retracement of recent rise, hence weakness to 1.3270-75 would be seen, however, downside should be limited to 1.3235-40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3056-1.3535) and reckon previous resistance at 1.3210 would hold due to near term oversold condition.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above 1.3350 would bring recovery to 1.3390-00, however, price should falter below previous support at 1.3421 (now resistance), bring another decline later. Only above 1.3475-80 would abort and suggest low is formed instead, bring test of 1.3495 resistance first.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.

DAX spiked to fresh high at 12177 (the highest since mid-2015) on 0.4% opening higher on Thursday and subsequent acceleration higher. Rally was triggered on relief after Dutch elections, results of which soothed fears of Eurozone's breakup.

Strong fundamentals were supported by bullish technicals that favor further advance after the price broke above previous high of 01 Mar at 12098.

Fresh bulls peaked at 12177, with consolidation on extended near-term studies underway.

Session low at 12088 marks initial support that is holding for now, with today's gap expected to remain intact and keep near-term structure in firm bullish tone for fresh upside action, towards projections at 12211 and 12282, regain of which would unmask key longer-term barrier at 12398 (record high, posted on 10 Apr 2015).

Conversely, filling today's gap would risk test of pivotal support at 12046 (rising daily Tenkan-sen) which underpins the action in past two weeks.

Res: 12144; 12177; 12211; 12282
Sup: 12088; 12062; 12046; 12000

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0642; (P) 1.0691 (R1) 1.0780; More.....

EUR/USD's rally from 1.0494 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.0828 resistance and above. Overall, rise from 1.0339 is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we'd upside to be limited by 100% projection of 1.0339 to 1.0828 from 1.0494 at 1.0983 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.0599 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0494 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9955; (P) 1.0030; (R1) 1.0077; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for 0.9860. Corrective rise from there should have completed at 1.0169 and fall from 1.0342 is likely resuming. Break of 0.9860 will target 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9860 from 1.0169 at 0.9687. On the upside, 1.0018 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.0169 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.72; (P) 113.80; (R1) 114.44; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 111.58 low. Current development argues that consolidation from 111.58 has completed with three waves to 115.49. And larger decline from 118.65 is resuming. Break of 111.58 will target 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12. That coincides with 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. We'd tentatively expect strong support from there to bring rebound. But firm break there will target 100% projection at 108.42. On the upside, outlook will stays bearish as long as 115.49 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

USD/CHF - 0.9967

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.0050, Target: 0.9950, Stop: 1.0085

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0030, Target: 0.9930, Stop: 1.0065

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has fallen again after brief recovery, suggesting the decline from 1.0171 top is still in progress and bearishness remains for further weakness to 0.9930-35, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9900, risk from there has increased for a strong rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0030) should limit upside and bring another decline. Only above previous support at 1.0060 (now resistance) would abort and signal low is formed instead, risk rebound to 1.0090-95 first.

As widely anticipated, SNB left the sight deposit rate unchanged at -0.75%. The target range for the three-month Libor stayed at between -1.25% and -0.25%. Reiterating the excessive strength in Swiss franc, the central bank pledged that it would "remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. Policymakers acknowledged ongoing improvements in the global economy but noted that it is "is still subject to considerable risks", among which the key is political uncertainty with "respect to the future course of economic policy in the US, upcoming elections in Europe, and the complex exit negotiations between the UK and the EU".

On the economic outlook, SNB forecasts CPI to increase +0.3% this year, up from +0.1% projected in December, before rising to +0.4% (December +0.5%) and +1.1% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. the upward revision in this year's inflation was mainly driven by the rally in oil prices. The central bank forecast GDP to expand +1.5% in 2017, although there is "considerable uncertainty emanating from international risks". Regarding the weaker-than-expected GDP growth in 4Q17, SNB noted that "a more extensive analysis of the available economic indicators points to an ongoing moderate recovery in the final months of the year; developments on the labor market support this view".

Earlier this month, Governor Thomas Jordan cautioned that, citing Trump's trade policy, Brexit and general elections in Germany and France, "increased political uncertainty" is "always delicate for us because Switzerland is increasingly viewed as a safe haven". SNB's FX reserves rose to a record high of CHF 668B. Total balance sheet is over 115% of GDP. This signals that the central bank intervened to suppress franc's appreciation by selling it for foreign currencies.

GBP/USD - 1.2357

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2200, Target: 1.2310, Stop: 1.2165

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2300, Target: 1.2400, Stop: 1.2265

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable rallied again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.2241, adding credence to our view that the rise from 1.2109 low is still in progress for retracement of recent decline, hence further gain to previous support at 1.2384 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2410-15 and price should falter well below resistance at 1.2471, bring retreat later.

In view of this, we are looking to buy cable on pullback but at a higher level as 1.2300-10 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 1.2265-70 would suggest top is possibly formed, risk test of said support at 1.2241 which is likely to hold on first testing.