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Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.53; (P) 161.74; (R1) 162.09; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Further rise would be seen to retesting 164.29 high next. On the downside, however, below 160.90 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 164.29 medium term top are seen as a correction to rise from 139.05 only. As long as 148.38 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is expected to resume through 164.29 at a later stage. Next target would be 169.96 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8540; (P) 0.8553; (R1) 0.8566; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations would be seen. On the downside, break of 0.8497 will resume recent fall to 0.8464 projection level. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, sustained break of 0.8571 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8764 is seen as another leg in the whole down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8713 resistance holds. Break of 0.8491 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8977 to 0.8491 from 0.8764 at 0.8464.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6475; (P) 1.6507; (R1) 1.6536; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, decisive break of 1.6671 will revive the case that whole correction from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.6127. Further rally should then be seen to 1.6844 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, below 1.6455 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.6348 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9478; (P) 0.9488; (R1) 0.9504; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 0.9510. Downside of retreat should be contained by 0.9413 minor support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 0.9510 target 0.9574 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9252 are tentatively seen as a correction to the five-wave down trend from 1.0095 (2023 high). Further rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9252 at 0.9574 and possibly above. But overall medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds.

The week starts with the soothing news that the Chinese traveled and spent more than they did in the same period of 2019. As such, the Chinese stock markets return from the CNY break on a cheery note; the CSI 300 index in the positive while the Hang Seng index, which rebounded up to 5% since last Wednesday, is slightly grumpier following a moody close in the US last Friday, after the PPI data revealed a surprise in jump in January. Both the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed the session in the red – even though the kneejerk selloff remained relatively soft given how badly last week’s inflation figures darkened the sky regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts. The US 2-year yield spiked past 4.70% after Friday’s data, the 10-year yield spiked past the 4.30%. The expectation of a May rate cut fell to around 35% from almost certain before the inflation data.

In summary, the week starts with good news from China, bad news for the Fed doves, and mounting worries that even if the impact of rising energy and shipping costs due to the Red Sea tensions remain limited on inflation, a powerful Chinese comeback may not. The People’s Bank of China kept its MLF rate unchanged yesterday to avoid putting more pressure on the yuan – and to see the impact of an avalanche of measures announced earlier this year. The path to correction will be bumpy given that the past years’ $7 trillion erased from the Chinese equity markets costed 66 Chinee companies their place in the MSCI’s global indices. The MSCI removed 66 Chinese companies from its MSCI China and MSCI world index in its latest quarterly review. Therefore, betting on Chinese market recovery is still swimming against the tide, until the winds turn. But resurfacing risk of a China boost on inflation is brought back on the table, with one major implication: delaying the first rate cuts from the major central banks.

Interestingly, despite last week’s inflation disappointment and tumbling Fed cut expectations, the US dollar index’s failure to gather positive momentum is weighing on the bullish sentiment this morning, the index is testing the 100-DMA to the downside. The EURUSD tests its own 100-DMA resistance to the upside, as the USDJPY trades near 150 at the start of the week. Japan entering recession in the second half of the year doesn’t help keeping the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hawks motivated. On the contrary, the BoJ has no interest in exiting the negative rates if inflation doesn’t press and if the economy gives signs that it needs support. The yen’s weakness is a major appetite booster when it comes to the Japanese stocks. The chances are that the Japanese policymakers will try to hold on to their negative rates as long as they could while keeping the yen depreciation under control. The potential of a further yen selloff remains limited due to the risk of intervention, but the dream of seeing the yen shine this year is gently sailing away.

It will be a slow Monday as US and Canada are closed for holiday. But things will spice up starting from Tuesday. Walmart and Home Depot are due to announce their last quarter earnings on Tuesday and Nvidia will be revealing its much-expected Q4 earnings on Wednesday.

Because the S&P500 is shouldered by a handful of technology stocks that are surfing on the AI wave, Nvidia earnings are perceived as a potential make-or-break moment for the US stock rally. Strong earnings should back the continuation of the S&P500’s rise above 5000, while any misstep should bring investors to take profit at the actual levels and trigger a downside correction. Nvidia is expected to announce $20bn sales in Q4, up from $18bn the company announced a quarter earlier. That represents a more than 200% sales growth compared to the same period a year ago. But the stock performance is also mind-blowing. Nvidia’s stock price was almost multiplied by 7 since the beginning of last year. Nvidia surpassed Google and Amazon last week in terms of market capitalization and became the S&P500’s third biggest company. The rally could hardly extend exponentially if the sales growth takes a sit on a more reasonable ground – the basecase scerio for the coming quarters. If that’s the, if Nvidia can’t throw another layer of surprise and amazement in the party, we should also see the US stock markets go into a take profit / correction mode. But investors will continue to look for AI opportunities in every corner of the market. Last Friday, Applied Materials – a semiconductor equipment maker – saw its stock price jump more than 6% following a bullish sales forecast for the year. AI is and will remain the major theme of the year.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3461; (P) 1.3484; (R1) 1.3509; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen below 1.3585 resistance. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3357 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.3585 will resume the rebound from 1.3176 for 1.3897 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6503; (P) 0.6524; (R1) 0.6552; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen above 0.6442 first. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. Break of 0.6642 will resume the decline from 0.6870 towards 0.6269 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0744; (P) 1.0766; (R1) 1.0800; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.0694. . Further decline is in favor with 1.0804 resistance intact. On the downside, below 1.0694 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to retest 1.0447 support. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, above 1.0804 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0722 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2560; (P) 1.2592; (R1) 1.2634; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.2691 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.2826 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.2826. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.2499 will argue that whole rise from 1.2036 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, which could be still in progress. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2499 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.81; (P) 150.23; (R1) 150.63; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and more consolidations would be seen below 150.78. Downside of retreat should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next. However, firm break of 148.79 will turn bias to the downside for 145.88 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption, and next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.