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The latest UK flash PMI data offered a glimmer of optimism for the economy, with Manufacturing jumping from 46.2 to 49.6 in October — its highest level in 12 months. Services rose from 50.8 to 51.1, lifting the Composite index from 50.1 to 51.1. The survey suggests business conditions are slowly improving after a soft September, marking the first sign of renewed momentum since midyear.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the data “brings hope that September was a low point,” noting the first manufacturing growth in over a year and stronger consumer demand for services. He added that inflationary pressures are easing back toward levels “consistent with the Bank of England’s 2% target,” while job losses are moderating and business confidence is ticking up slightly.

Still, the overall pace of expansion remains modest, consistent with GDP growth of only about 0.1%. Export weakness persists due to global trade disruptions tied to U.S. tariff policy. Firms are also cautious ahead of the November 26 Budget, with many delaying hiring and investment decisions. While the PMI data point to stabilization, the recovery remains fragile and heavily dependent on fiscal clarity and external demand.

Full UK PMI flash release here.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ) advances steadily toward completing the cycle that originated at the April 7, 2025 low. The index targets a fresh all-time high. This rally develops as a textbook impulsive structure. Wave (3) culminated at 25,275. Wave (4) then corrected lower and finished at 24,166.26. The 1-hour chart captures this progression clearly.

The internal structure of wave (4) took the form of an expanded flat. Wave A ended at 24,984.75. The Index then rallied in Wave B to 25,394. Wave C completed the pattern with a decline to 24,166.26. Wave (5) now drives the index higher. From the wave (4) low, wave 1 rose to 25,179.5 and formed a leading diagonal. Wave 2 pulled back to 24,410. The advance then nested with wave ((i)) peaking at 25,368 and wave ((ii)) finding support at 24,804.75. This nesting confirms the underlying bullish trend.

Provided prices hold above 24,166.26, any near-term dip should attract buyers at the 3, 7, or 11 swing levels, aligning with structural support zones. Upside momentum remains intact. The minimum target extends from the October 21, 2025 high. An inverse Fibonacci retracement of 123.6% to 161.8% yields a range of 25,490 to 25,701, consistent with classic wave extensions.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ) Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 10.24.2025

NQ Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2waDhCJULTw

Eurozone business activity accelerated in October, with PMI Composite rising to a 17-month high of 52.2 from 51.2, signaling the strongest expansion since mid-2024. The pickup was driven by services, where PMI Services index jumped from 51.3 to 52.6, a 14-month high, while Manufacturing finally edged up to the neutral 50.0 mark after months of contraction.

However, the upturn remains uneven across major economies. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted that France has increasingly become a drag, with its rate of contraction accelerating for two straight months amid political turmoil and budget disputes under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. In contrast, Germany’s outlook "brightened significantly", helping to lift the bloc’s overall figures. Still, manufacturing has been “stagnating for practically six months,” de la Rubia said, and weak new orders leave “little hope of a turnaround.”

Inflation trends offer some comfort for policymakers. Price pressures in the services sector — a key focus for the ECB — “remain moderate,” with sales price inflation slightly higher but still near long-term averages. The PMI data are therefore unlikely to alter the ECB’s cautious stance, reinforcing expectations that officials will hold off on further rate cuts until clearer signs of sustained disinflation emerge.

Full Eurozone PMI flash release here.

Market sentiment remains dominated by escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe, which are dampening the euro's outlook and fuelling demand for traditional safe-haven assets, notably the US dollar.

The dollar's strength is further underpinned by the persistently hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve. Officials continue to signal that interest rates will need to remain at their current levels for longer than previously anticipated. This stance is reinforced by resilient US inflation data, solidifying market expectations that the Fed will maintain its current policy course.

In stark contrast, the eurozone is grappling with a marked slowdown in business activity. The latest PMI data confirms a contraction across both manufacturing and services sectors. Against this deteriorating economic backdrop, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a notably cautious tone, hinting at significant downside risks to growth. This growing monetary policy divergence with the US creates a fundamental imbalance, exacerbating the downward pressure on the single currency.

Consequently, the overall fundamental picture continues to favour the US dollar, suggesting further downside potential for the EUR/USD pair.

 Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a tight consolidation range around the 1.1600 level, following a clear impulsive decline. This price action suggests the development of a third wave down. A decisive break below this consolidation range would signal the resumption of the bearish impulse, with an initial target at 1.1488. This bearish technical outlook is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing downward, indicating sustained selling momentum.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the completion of a downward wave to 1.1576, followed by a corrective move to 1.1620, effectively outlining the current consolidation zone. A break above this range could trigger a short-lived correction towards 1.1655 before the broader downtrend resumes, targeting 1.1500. Conversely, a break below the range would directly activate the bearish wave towards 1.1488, which is projected to complete the first leg of the larger third wave down. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line turning down from the 80 level and heading towards 20, reflecting building bearish momentum in the short term.

Conclusion

The combination of a supportive fundamental backdrop for the dollar and a deteriorating outlook for the eurozone maintains a bearish bias for EUR/USD. Technically, the pair appears to be pausing within a broader downtrend, with a breakdown below 1.1600 likely to trigger the next leg lower towards 1.1488.

Finding support at 6-month lows of around $56.40 per barrel, WTI has rallied just shy of 8.6% in the last three sessions alone.

Currently trading at $62.04, up 4.10% in yesterday’s session, recent performance marks the best three-day stint since late July.

As ever, let’s take a look at some of the macro themes at play, followed by some technical analysis as we attempt to answer the immortal question: what’s next for WTI?

WTI (West Texas Intermediate): Key takeaways 24/10/2025

• Gapping up 1.1% at Thursday’s open, WTI crude has found renewed buying support on new sanction announcements from the United States on leading Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil
• Constrained previously by logistical problems of safe storage, and of course, funding issues, the US Department of Energy confirmed on Tuesday its intentions to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to replenish reserves, bolstering crude gains
• Otherwise, and in the bigger picture, a cloud of oversupply fears lingers over crude oil markets, especially considering record output from non-OPEC+ members

WTI (West Texas Intermediate): Where were we?

It’s high time I returned to my commentary roots and wrote some more coverage on crude oil markets.

Although it would be fair to say that oil has played second fiddle to precious metals in recent months, both in terms of market interest and, indeed, performance.

With that said, this appears to be changing, with recent geopolitical developments offering some welcome upside and, crucially, boosting WTI pricing above $60 for the first time since earlier this month.

WTI Crude Oil (WTICOUSD), D1 year-to-date, OANDA, TradingView, 23/10/2025

Without further ado, let’s break down some major macroeconomic themes and conclude with some market technicals, including some price targets.

WTI (WTICOUSD): Fundamental Analysis 24/10/2025

New US sanctions on Russian oil: Reported Wednesday, the United States announced new sanctions on Russian oil exports, following an apparent breakdown in ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Press Releases, 22/10/2025

Read the full press release here

Coming only one day after Trump shelved a planned meeting in Budapest with Putin, it would seem that frustrations are running high after the demands of an immediate ceasefire have fallen on deaf ears.

"I don’t want to have a wasted meeting. I don’t want to have a waste of time, so I’ll see what happens. We did all of these great deals, great peace deals, they’re all peace deals. Agreements, solid agreements every one of them"

President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, 21/10/2025

Clearly, the sanctions are intended as a bargaining tool to help encourage a peace deal, but at least so far, words from the Kremlin suggest that the Russian domestic oil industry will remain largely unaffected, boasting of its level of immunity from Western sanctions.

While Trump hopes the economic impact of new sanctions will encourage Putin to return to the negotiating table, only time will tell how effective these measures will be.

As for oil pricing, the associated fallout raises questions about supply, which is a positive development for pricing. This holds even more true when considering that the market narrative has been almost exclusively one of oversupply - the most recent geopolitical developments question this assumption somewhat, especially if tensions escalate.

US to buy 1 million crude barrels to replenish reserves: I think most would agree that, especially when compared to previous presidents, Trump shares a very particular relationship with the crude oil markets. After all, who could forget this legendary catchphrase?

@realDonaldTrump, TruthSocial, 23/06/2025

If put simply, however, Trump policy surrounding crude oil centers almost exclusively revolves around two core tenets:

• To maintain America’s lead as #1 producer of crude oil worldwide, therefore establishing control over supply
• To keep oil prices low to promote economic growth

On this basis, the latest development is the intent to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which recently saw record levels of depletion under the administration of former President Joe Biden.

US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR, 23/10/2025

Being previously constrained by logistical matters and, of course, funding, the EIA will undoubtedly want to capitalise on historically low crude oil prices to increase its stockpile.

Naturally, markets have interpreted this information as positive for crude oil, helping to boost pricing.

Non-OPEC+ members report record crude output: While not as contemporaneous as the other two themes, a significant macro headwind continues to dictate the direction of crude markets: the fear of oversupply.

Most recently, this is reflected in record output from non-OPEC countries, which have contributed to the current bearish bias. Otherwise, the aforementioned EIA has also confirmed sustained high levels of production.

While there have been some attempts to stagger output increases by OPEC, which have proved limited in effectiveness, with crude oil inventories rising globally.

In a nutshell, although the previous two themes are bullish for crude oil, the longer-term bias likely remains bearish from a supply standpoint.

WTI (WTICOUSD): Technical Analysis 24/10/2025

WTI Crude Oil (WTICOUSD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 24/10/2025

While recent upside has been impressive, rallying by almost 8.6%, there is still plenty of work to be done if oil is to break the current downtrend.

While on a macro level, the narrative surrounding supply would have to change significantly to support this, technically, here’s some level to watch to the upside:
Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Price target #1 - Previous support turned resistance - $62.564
• Price target #2 - $63.564 - 61.8% Fib

What is encouraging, however, is that one of my personal favourite indicators, the SSL channel, has flipped to report a bullish bias. While this can occur during periods of market consolidation, when combined with a rising OBV volume, it may perhaps signify that a larger change is afoot.

With that said, price action remains overwhelmingly bearish, assuming crude cannot break above ~$63.564, which might shake things up somewhat.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 202.85; (P) 203.33; (R1) 203.83; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 205.30. Firm break there will resume larger rally to 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 199.96 from 197.47 at 207.11. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 200.67 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 will dampen this view and could extend the corrective pattern with another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 176.58; (P) 177.01; (R1) 177.72; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 177.91. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 172.24 at 180.15 next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 174.80 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Firm break of 172.24 support will suggests that it has turned into consolidations again. But still, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 167.43) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8692; (P) 0.8707; (R1) 0.8732; More…

Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 0.8654 will resume the fall from 0.8750 to 0.8631 support. Decisive break there will indicate bearish reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8750 at 0.8548. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 0.8750/2 will resume the rise from 0.8221 towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move. While further rally cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, firm break of 0.8631 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8549) will confirm, and bring retest of 0.8221 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7792; (P) 1.7848; (R1) 1.7897; More...

EUR/AUD breached 1.7818 support but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 1.7965 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.8160 first. Firm break there will affirm the case that larger up trend is resuming, and target 1.8554 high next. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.7818 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.7569 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern, which might have completed already. Firm break of 1.8554 will resume larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low), and target 61.8% projection of 1.5963 to 1.8554 from 1.7569 at 1.9170. Nevertheless, break of 1.7569 support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 1.8554.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9231; (P) 0.9242; (R1) 0.9250; More....

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidations above 0.9208 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9311 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.9208 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9660 to 0.9218 from 0.9452 at 0.9179. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.9010.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9390). Firm break of 0.9204 will resume the whole down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Break of 0.9452 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming.