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France PMI Manufacturing dropped to 53.3 in October, down from September's 55.0, below expectation of 54.3. That's also a 9-month low. PMI Services rose to 56.6, up from 56.2, above expectation of 55.3. PMI Composite dropped slightly to 54.7, down from 55.3, a 6-month low.

Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit said: "Responsibility for France's economic recovery was placed firmly on the shoulders of the service sector in October, as latest PMI data showed manufacturing output falling for the first time since January. The overall rate of expansion slowed to a six-month low as the supply-side issues hurting manufacturers the most offset a faster expansion in services activity. Of the medley of letters that an economic recovery can look like, France's growth profile is currently akin to a "K".

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UK retail sales dropped -0.2% mom, -1.3% yoy in September, below expectation of 0.7% mom, -0.4% yoy. Ex-fuel sales dropped -0.6% mom, -2.6% yoy, below expectation of 0.2% mom, -1.7% yoy.

ONS also noted: "Despite relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in summer 2021, in-store retail sales remain subdued; the proportion of retail sales online rose to 28.1% in September 2021 from 27.9% in August, substantially higher than the 19.7% in February 2020 before the pandemic."

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1606; (P) 1.1637; (R1) 1.1653; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and further is in favor with 1.1571 minor support intact. On the upside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1707) will be a sign that larger correction from 1.2348 has completed. Stronger rally would be seen to 1.1908 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, break of 1.1571 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1523 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2348 should at least be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low). As long as 1.1908 resistance holds, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Nevertheless break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3770; (P) 1.3801; (R1) 1.3826; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3833 temporary top is extending. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3646 support holds. Above 1.3833 will resume the rebound from 1.3410 to 1.3912 key structural resistance. Firm break there will indicate that the correction from 1.4248 is complete with three waves down to 1.3410. Further rally would then be seen to retest 1.4248 high. However, break of 1.3646 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.3410 low.

In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it's a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9168; (P) 0.9187; (R1) 0.9203; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside as fall from 0.9367 is in progress. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.9162 support will argue that whole rise from 0.8925 has completed. Deeper decline would be seen to 0.9017 support next. On the upside, break of 0.9251 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9367 instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not completed yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum of assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.64; (P) 114.03; (R1) 114.41; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is mildly on the downside for pull back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 113.65) and below. But downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 114.71 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 100% projection 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7434; (P) 0.7491; (R1) 0.7522; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen first, but downside should be contained by 0.7377 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 0.7545 will resume the rally from 0.7105 and target 161.8% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7771.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2311; (P) 1.2348; (R1) 1.2406; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current recovery. Some consolidations would be seen but upside should be limited by 1.2497 resistance to bring another fall. Break of 1.22896 will extend larger decline from 1.2947 to 161.8% projection of 1.2947 to 1.2492 from 1.2894 at 1.2158 next.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 argues that rebound from 1.2005 is merely a corrective rise, which is complete. More importantly, the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high). is not over yet. Sustained break of 1.2005 will extend the down trend to next long term fibonacci level at 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. In any case, outlook will not turn bullish as long as 1.2947 resistance holds.

Technical analysis

The RSI(14) and the RSI(3) both suggest an upwards movement.

The price is above EMA(120) and EMA(24) which is advantageous for bulls.

Most likely scenario – BUY

Target prices: 1,788.27 1,790.37 1,793.05

Alternative scenario – SELL

Target prices: 1,785.14 1,781.39 1,778.16

Key levels

Support 1,785.14 1,781.39 1,778.16

Resistance 1,788.27 1,790.37 1,793.05

The EURUSD pair was little changed in the overnight session even after strong economic data from the United States. Data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that initial jobless claims declined sharply last week. Initial claims declined to a pandemic low of 290k while continuing claims fell to a low of 2.4 million. These numbers, coupled with the latest initial jobless claims numbers mean that the labour market is tightening. Further data showed that existing home sales jumped to more than 6 million in October. Later today, the pair will react to the flash manufacturing and services PMI data from the US and the Eurozone.

The GBPUSD pair declined slightly as investors waited for the upcoming UK retail sales numbers that will come out in the morning session. The data is expected to show that the headline retail sales rose by 0.5% in September after falling by 0.9% in the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, the sales numbers are expected to drop by 0.4%. Meanwhile, core retail sales are expected to fall by 1.7% as supply shortages declined and prices rose. The pair will also react to the flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers and a speech by Jerome Powell.

The USDCAD pair tilted higher in the overnight session as the price of crude oil declined sharply. Brent, the global benchmark, declined by 2% to $84.17 while WTI fell by 1.7% to $82. This decline happened as investors worried about demand as the number of Covid cases rose in some countries. As we move to winter, there is a likelihood that the number of cases will keep rising. The pair also declined as investors anticipate strong Canadian retail sales numbers. Analysts expect the data to show that the headline retail sales rose by 2.0% while core sales rose by 2.8%.

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair has stagnated in the past few days. The pair is trading at 1.1625, which is slightly below this week’s high of 1.1667. On the four-hour chart, the pair has moved below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. It has also formed what looks like a double-top pattern while the price is slightly above the 25-day moving average. The MACD has also formed a bearish divergence pattern. Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling today.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair found major resistance at 1.3832. On the hourly chart, the pair also crossed the 25-day moving average. It is also slightly above the chin of the double-top pattern at 1.3832 while the signal line of the MACD has moved below the neutral level. It is also below the dots of the Parabolic SAR. Therefore, the pair will likely keep dropping after the UK retail sales numbers.

USDCAD

The USDCAD pair staged a major recovery as the price of crude oil declined. The pair moved from a low of 1.2287 to the current level of 1.2380. On the 30-minute chart, it has moved to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. At the same time, the MACD and the RSI have rallied while the price is above the 25-day moving average. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the key resistance at 1.2450.