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France PMI Manufacturing dropped from 58.0 to 57.3 in July, matched expectations. PMI Services dropped from 56.8 to 56.4, below expectation of 57.0. PMI Composite dropped from 56.6 to 55.9.

Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit said: "Another strong month of growth across France was signalled by the flash PMI figure for August. Despite some of the challenges businesses are facing on the supply side, it's encouraging to see PMI data consistently signalling robust expansion. Furthermore, given we're now midway through the third quarter, the survey data up to this point suggest we could see another decent out turn in the corresponding GDP figure."

Full release here.

EURUSD is pushing for a rebound after its latest downfall snapped the March trough of 1.1703 to mark a new lower low at 1.1663, the lowest since November 2020.

Despite the bullish appetite in the price, the technical indicators cannot guarantee any sustainable recovery in the market yet. The RSI has bottomed twice near its 30 oversold mark, but it continues to fluctuate within the bearish area, while the Stochastics haven’t officially abandoned the oversold region yet. Likewise, the MACD, although somewhat stronger, remains below its red signal line, while the Ichimoku indicators show no effort in correcting their recent bearish intersection.

Hence, the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the tentative descending trendline drawn from the 1.2265 peak currently both around 1.1774 will remain a major challenge for the bulls in the short term. Slightly higher, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2265 – 1.1663 downleg at 1.1800, where the 50-day SMA is converging, could cement this wall, blocking any move towards the 1.1880 resistance territory and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.1893.

In the case the price drifts southwards, breaking the 1.1663 low, all eyes will turn to the crucial 1.1600 support area, which prompted the sharp rally to the top of 1.2348 last Autumn. Failure to hold above this floor could trigger a more aggressive sell-off towards the 1.1500 – 1.1455 zone.

Summarizing, bearish risks persist in EURUSD despite the latest attempts for a rebound and they are expected to strengthen if the price closes clearly below 1.1663. In the event of an upside reversal, all eyes will turn to the 1.1780 – 1.1800 area.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1714

The support at 1.1670 managed once again to resist the bearish pressure and the expectations for today's trading session are for the pair to remain within the range between 1.1670 - 1.1766. Only a breach of the support at 1.1670 would lead to a sell-off, targeting the levels at around 1.1600. At the time of writing, a move towards the resistance at 1.1760 is a possible scenario before the downtrend is to continue. If the mentioned resistance is breached, the EUR/USD will most likely head towards the resistance at 1.1800.

USD/JPY

Current level - 109.80

After the successful breach of the resistance at 109.73, the expectations for today's trading session are for a test of the resistance at 110.18. However, it is very likely that trading will remain locked in the range between 109.50-110.20. The stronger support, in case the pair starts to decline, is the level of 109.50 which, if breached, should lead to a move towards the support zone at 108.74.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.3646

The currency pair is testing the psychological level at 1.3600 and, at the time of writing the analysis, there is a corrective movement which will most likely lead to a move towards the resistance at 1.3720. During today's trading session, the more important economic news that could lead to an increase in volatility is the preliminary manufacturing PMI and the preliminary services PMI at 08:30 GMT.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.14; (P) 150.18; (R1) 150.72; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. But further decline is expected as long as 151.38 resistance holds. Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implication and target 143.78 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 151.38 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 153.42 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 149.03 support holds, such rise would still resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 149.03 support will indicate rejection by 156.59. Fall from 156.05 would be at least correcting the whole rise from 123.94. Deeper fall would be seen back 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 156.05 at 143.78 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.09; (P) 128.31; (R1) 128.67; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 127.91 temporary low. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 130.54 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 127.91 will target 127.07 resistance turned support. That is close to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 126.58.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

The US Dollar fell by 116 pips or 0.90% against the Canadian Dollar on Friday. The currency pair breached a support level formed by the 50– hour simple moving average at 1.2814 during Friday's trading session.

By and large, the exchange rate could continue to decline in an ascending channel pattern. Sellers may target the lower line of the channel pattern at 1.2700 within this session.

However, the weekly pivot point at 1.2760 could provide support for the currency exchange rate in the shorter term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8569; (P) 0.8579; (R1) 0.8599; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 0.8448 would target 0.9668 resistance. Firm break there will be a strong sign of near term bullish reversal at least. On the downside, break of 0.8534 resistance turned support will mix up the near term outlook again and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8668 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. However, firm break of 0.8668 resistance would argue that a medium term bottom was already formed. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.8861 support turned resistance to confirm completion of the corrective pattern.

Since Friday's trading session, the British Pound has surged by 84 pips or 0.56% against the Japanese Yen. The currency pair breached the 50– hour simple moving average on Monday morning.

Everything being equal, bullish traders are likely to continue to drive the exchange rate higher during the following trading session. A breakout through the upper boundary of a descending channel pattern could occur.

However, if the channel pattern holds, the currency exchange rate would make a brief retracement towards the 149.23 within this session.

The AUD/USD currency pair bounced off a support level at 0.7109 on Friday. As a result, the Australian Dollar edged higher by 41 pips or 0.58% against the US Dollar during Friday's trading session.

Given that the exchange rate has breached the resistance level of the 50– hour simple moving average at 0.7147, buyers could continue to drive the price higher during the following trading session.

However, bullish traders could find resistance formed by the weekly pivot point at 0.7204 within this session.

On Friday, the Eurozone single currency surged by 56 pips or 0.44% against the Japanese Yen. The currency pair breached the 50– hour simple moving average during Friday's trading session.

All things being equal, the exchange rate is likely to continue to trend bullish during the following trading session. The potential target for buyers will be near the 129.40 area.

However, the 200– hour simple moving average at 128.90 could provide resistance for the EUR/USD currency exchange rate within this session.