Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.56; (P) 129.97; (R1) 130.59; More…

EUR/JPY recovers after hitting 129.36 and with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 131.69 high is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective price action in near term, with risk of deeper fall. Below 129.36 will target 127.55 support first. Firm break there will indicate near term reversal and deeper fall would be seen back to 122.39/125.80 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds. However, firm break of 124.08 will argue that rise from 109.03 is completed and turn outlook bearish.

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EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart

EUR/JPY Daily Chart


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