EUR/JPY’s decline from 165.19 extended lower last week and the break of 161.57 support argues that rise from 154.77 might have completed. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for 158.27 support next. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 163.35 resistance will revive near term bullishness, and bring retest of 165.19 instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 149.91).
