Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0558; (P) 1.0611 (R1) 1.0642; More….
EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0905 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Corrective rise from 1.0339 is likely finished after being rejected by 55 week EMA. And, the larger down trend is ready to resume. Further fall should be seen to 1.0494 support first. Decisive break of 1.0494 support will confirm this bearish case and target 1.0339 low. Break of 1.0339 will confirm down trend resumption and target 100% projection of 1.1298 to 1.0339 from 1.0905 at 0.9946. On the upside, however, break of 1.0688 resistance will delay the bearish case and turn focus back to 1.0905 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.