Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.00; (P) 107.51; (R1) 107.81; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook, corrective recovery from 106.78 should have completed at 108.99, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Further fall would be seen to 106.78 first. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 112.40 and target 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 108.37 will extend the correction from 106.78 with another rise, possibly through 108.99 resistance.

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In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

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