AUD/USD – 0.7602
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Bought at 0.7645, stopped at 0.7605
Position: – Long at 0.7645
Stop: – 0.7605
New strategy :
As aussie met renewed selling interest at 0.7680 last week and has slipped again, dampening our bullishness and test of support at 0.7585 cannot be ruled out, break there would signal top has indeed been formed at 0.7750 last month, bring further fall to 0.7530-40 but indicated support at 0.7491 should remain intact due to near term oversold condition, risk from there is seen for a rebound later.
In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above 0.7650 would bring another bounce to 0.7680-85 resistance but break there is needed to revive bullishness and signal low is formed there and bring further gain to 0.7720-25, then retest of said resistance at 0.7750. Looking ahead, above this resistance would extend gain to 0.7778 (last year’s high), however, only break there would extend headway to 0.7840-50.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.