EUR/USD – 1.0952

EUR/USD:   Wave (c) of 2 ended at 1.3993 and wave 3 of III has commenced for weakness to 1.0411 (1.236 of wave 1), then 1.0000.

As the single currency retreated after meeting resistance at 1.1025 last week, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.0820-25 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to previous resistance at 1.0778 and bring another rise later, above said resistance at would extend the erratic rise from 1.0340 (tentatively wave v of larger defer wave 3) low to 1.1050 but reckon upside would be limited to 1.1125-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1616-1.0340) and price should falter well below strong resistance at 1.1300, bring retreat later. 

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Our preferred count on the daily chart remains that a wave (II) from 1.2329 ended at 1.5145 with A-leg ended at 1.4720, followed by wave B at 1.2457, the wave C from there was also a 3 legged move and is labeled as (a): 1.3739, (b): 1.2885, the wave iii of the 5-waver (c) from 1.2885 has ended at 1.4339 and wave iv is a triangle ended at 1.3878 and wave v formed a top at 1.5145. The decline from there is a 5-waver (C) with minor wave (i) of I of (C) ended at 1.4218 with wave (ii) ended at 1.4580, wave (iii) ended at 1.3267 and wave (iv) ended at 1.3692 and wave (v) ended at 1.1876, this is also the low of wave I of (C) and wave II ended at 1.4940, hence wave III is now in progress with a diagonal wave 1 ended at 1.2042, the breach of previous support at 1.1876 (wave I trough) adds credence to our view that the wave 2 has ended at 1.3993, wave 3 has commenced for further weakness to 1.0411, then towards 1.0000.

On the downside, although initial pullback to 1.0820-25 cannot be ruled out, reckon previous resistance at 1.0778 (now support) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A daily close below previous resistance at 1.0778 would defer and risk weakness to 1.0735-40, break there would signal top is formed, bring test of support at 1.0678-82 first but downside should be limited to 1.0602 support and key level at 1.0570 should remain intact. 

Recommendation: Buy at 1.0780 for 1.0980 with stop below 1.0680. 

Euro’s long-term uptrend started from 0.8228 (26 Oct 2000) with an impulsive structure. The rise from 0.8228 to 0.9593 (5 Jan 2001) is labeled as wave I, the retreat to 0.8352 (6 Jul 2001) is wave II and the rally to 1.3670 (31 Dec 2004) is wave III. Wave IV from there ended at 1.1640 (15 Nov 2005), the subsequent upmove to 1.6040 (July 15, 2008) is treated as wave V, the major selloff from the record high of 1.6040 to 1.2329 (October 27, 2008) signals a reversal has taken place with (I) leg ended at 1.2329 and once (II) ended at 1.5145, wave (III) itself is an extended move with I: 1.1876 and complex wave II ended at 1.4902, wave III has commenced with wave 1 and 2 ended at 1.2042 and 1.3993 respectively, wave 3 of III is now unfolding for weakness towards parity.


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