RBNZ released a paper outlining the economic impacts of coronavirus containment measures. At alert level 4 with lockdown of non-essential activity, GDP would be reduced by -37% during the period. that’s slightly lower than treasury’s estimate of -40%. At alert level 3 with restrictions on trading activity, GDP will only be -19% lower during the period.
The paper also noted that the “ongoing impacts” are not included in the analysis. And, “even with significant support from fiscal and monetary policy, these would add to the overall economic costs.” Though, ” estimates of the direct impacts may be overstated because the decline in global economic activity and international travel would have reduced economic activity in New Zealand even without any containment measures.”
