CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Index Futures to Return to NET SHORT Next Week as US election Results Get Clearer
The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report covered the period just before the US presidential election. During the week, bets on US futures slipped on both sides amidst the highly uncertain election outcome. With Joe Biden on the way to become the next president, risk appetite has increased significantly....
Dollar Selling Continues Despite Solid NFP, Euro Surges
Dollar's selloff continues today despite stronger than expected employment data. Though, selling focus has turned to against Euro and Swiss Franc. Australian Dollar is taking a breather, together with global stock markets. There is no doubt that Dollar will end as the worst performing one for the week, followed...
Dollar Remains the Weakest While US Stocks Could Make New Record High
Dollar's decline is slowing a little bit in Asian session but there is no sign of a turnaround. The greenback remains the worst performing one for the week, followed by Yen, on strong risk-on markets. Australian Dollar is the strongest one, followed by other commodity currencies. FOMC meeting overnight...
Fed Discussed Options to Adjust QE, More Details Probably Out Next Month
As widely anticipated, the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and asset purchases at US$120B per month. The decisions were made unanimously. The members acknowledged that economic recovery remained under way. Yet, they warned of the downside risks to growth amidst the huge uncertainty of the coronavirus...
Dollar Selling Takes Off as Stocks Extend Powerful Rally
Dollar's selloff finally takes off as market enters into US session today. While the final result of US presidential election is still unknown, investors couldn't wait to push stocks higher. At the time of writing, Canadian Dollar is trading as a distant second weakest. Sterling is also relatively weak...
BOE’s QE Expansion Exceeds Expectations as Economy Heads for Double Dip
While leaving the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%, BOE raised the size of asset purchases (QE) by +135B pound to 875 pound. Both decisions were made unanimously. The expansion came in larger than we had anticipated. The staff also revised lower GDP growth outlook, now expecting the economy to...
Stocks Surge on US Elections, Dollar and Yen Weak But No Follow Through Selling Yet
Movements in the forex markets in reaction to the US elections were relatively indecisive, comparing to the strong risk-on moves in the stocks. There is no clear follow through selling in Dollar and Yen so far, while commodity currencies are struggling to extend gains. Focuses will now turn to...
US Crude Oil Inventory Surprisingly Slumped
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -16.8 mmb to 1402.34 mmb in the week ended October 30. Crude oil inventory dived -8 mmb (consensus: +0.89 mmb) to 484.43 mmb. Stockpile increased in 4 out...
Yen and Franc Rise as US Election Has No Clear Winner Yet
Volatility continues today as US Presidential election vote counts are released. The final results are unknown at this point, narrowed down the results of just a few states. At the time of writing, Yen is the stronger one, followed by Swiss Franc. Sterling and Kiwi are the weaker ones....
Roller-Coaster Ride Started Even Before US Election Results
Much volatility was seen in the financial markets in the past 24-hours, as traders were pre-trading US elections results. At the time of writing, the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is very tight, totally different from the picture portraited by most main steam media. Overall picture in...
FOMC Preview – Fed to Discuss Asset Purchases Arrangement as Balance Sheet Surpasses US$ 7 Trillion
We do not expect any change in the monetary policy at the November meeting. That is, the Fed should leave the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset purchases program unchanged at US$120B/month. The central bank will maintain a dovish stance, warning that risks to growth are skewed...
Dollar Broadly Sold Off as Markets in Full Risk-On Mode
Global stocks surge sharply as investors seem to be very optimistic on the result out of US elections. Major European indices are currently up around 2% while DOW future is up 400 pts. Dollar is sold off sharply, together with Yen and Swiss Franc. Australian Dollar left RBA's rate...
RBA Cuts Rates and Increases QE Purchases for at Least 6 More Months
As expected, RBA announced further monetary easing at today’s meeting. RBA cut the cash rate to 0.1%, from 0.25% previously. Similarly, the target for the yield on the 3-year government bond yield and the interest rate on new drawings under the Term Funding Facility were also lowered to 0.1%....
Australian Dollar Weakens after RBA Rate Cut, Canadian Rebounds with Oil Price
Asian Markets rebound notably today, following the strong close in US overnight. Canadian Dollar staged a U-turn, following the path of oil price. Australian Dollar is trading generally lower today following RBA's easing announcement. Yet, downside is relatively limited, expect versus a few. Dollar has turned mixed, together with...
Euro and Dollar Turn Mixed as Global Stocks Rebound
Commodity currencies are taking control into US session with help from rebound in European indices. DOW future is also currently up around 450 pts. Canadian Dollar came out of the shadow of steep decline in oil prices, leading Aussie and Kiwi. At the time of writing, Sterling is the...
BOE Preview – Expanding QE Size while Keeping Rate Unchanged at Record Low
At the meeting this week, we expect BOE to increase the size of asset purchases (QE), by 100B pound, to 845B pound. The Bank rate will stay unchanged at 0.1%. Economic data released since the last meeting suggest that the members’ forecasts in August were too optimistic. A downgrade...
Dollar Firm into a Week of Election, Fed and NFP
Dollar and Yen strengthen in general in Asian session today even though risk sentiments are not bad, as seen in rally in major indices. Solid data from China was enough to offset the pessimism over lockdowns in Europe, and the steep decline in oil prices. Sterling is currently the...
RBA Preview – Expecting New Easing Package of Rate Cuts and QE Expansion
It is widely anticipated that RBA will announce more easing measures at this week’s meeting. The package of measures will likely include a rate cut to 0.1% and expansion of the yield curve control program with the focus on 5-10 year bonds.
Economic Development since October
Economic data released since the...
Key Levels to Watch as US Presidential Election Looms
Global equities tumbled notably last week, partly as coronavirus spread was hitting new record highs. Also of the same importance, US investor had lightened up their positions in preparation for the Presidential elections. Yen and Dollar surged broadly to end as the strongest one. Euro was the worst performing,...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Falling Euro Soared amidst Fresh Lockdown Measures
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 27, NET SHORT of USD Index futures slipped -412 to 1 254 contracts. Speculative long positions increased +687 contracts and short positions added +275 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures dived -10...