Sat, Feb 29, 2020 @ 12:51 GMT
The major theme in the forex markets isn't too clear today. Sterling dips initially after retail sales missed expectation, but quickly recovered. Canadian dollar also pare back some of the post BoC decline, as lifted by strength in oil...
Euro tumbles sharply today as poor PMI data solidifies the case for ECB easing ahead. The central bank is not expected to act tomorrow yet, but some form of indications would likely be provided by President Mario Draghi, on...
In early US session, Dollar is still trading as one of the strongest major currencies for the week, together with Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc. However, it's clearly losing some steam today and it's in red against all others...
We expect RBNZ, at next week’s meeting, to leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75% and downgrade its economic growth forecasts. We believe the tone would be tilted to the dovish side as both global and domestic environment deteriorated since...
Sterling surged broadly last week after as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson struck a new deal with EU on Brexit. It appeared that UK was on track to leave EU on October 31 in an orderly way. The development...
Euro dropped notably against Dollar overnight after news of terrorist attack in Paris, just ahead of presidential election this Sunday. A shooting occurred on the famous Champs-Elysees shopping boulevard, resulting in death of one police and injuries of two others. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the shooting. The incident disrupts the election campaign as conservative candidate Francois Fillon cancelled his trip to the Alps to "first show our solidarity with the police". Far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon said urged people to "attend to our duties as citizens: no panic, we shouldn't interrupt our democratic process". Far-right Marine Le Pen said she was "deeply angry" on the shooting and sad for the victims. Centrist Emmanuel Macron said that "this threat, this imponderable problem, is part of our daily lives for the years to come."
Sterling drops broadly today as the new government is starting step up their hard line rhetorics on Brexit. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are also weak as markets await US-China trade negotiations that start tomorrow. Expectations for the talks...
The FOMC minutes for the October meeting revealed that most members judged that the monetary easing was enough to support growth. However, they continued to see downside to the economic outlook. In October, the members voted to cut the Fed...
Risk aversion continues to dominate the global financial markets. DOW dropped -204.69 pts, or -0.93% overnight to close at 21844.01, comparing to intra-week high at 22179.11. S&P 500 also lost -35.81 pts, or -1.45% to close at 2438.21. Selloff in equities extends in Asian session. While Japan is on holiday, but Hong Kong HSI is trading down -1.8%, Korean KOSPI down -1.7% and Australia ASX 200 down -1.3%. In the currency markets, Japanese yen remains the strongest currency, followed by Swiss Franc and commodity currencies are all under pressure. Gold is staying firm above 1290 and is still on course for 1300 handle. WTI crude oil, however, is heading back to 48 after breaching 50 briefly.
Risk appetite stages a come back in Asian session today as China pledged to "strive for a good start" in 2019. With Asian markets having broad based gains, New Zealand Dollar is leading commodity currencies higher. On the other...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 29 NET LENGTH in USD Index slid -1 701 contracts to 39 509. Speculative long positions fell -3 650 contracts and short positions dropped -1...
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined -3.36 mmb to 1258.98 mmb in the week ended February 1. Crude oil inventory added +1.26 mmb to...
As expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.75%. Governor Wheeler reiterated that the monetary policy would remain accommodative for some time. The staff projection continued to forecast the first rate hike to come in 2H19. They also revised lower the short term inflation outlook and intensified the warning that a lower currency is needed for growth. NZDUSD jumped to a 3-day high of 0.7371 after the announcement, but gains were erased afterwards.
Dollar strengthens further in early US session after strong employment data. Initial jobless claims dropped -19k to 223k in the week ended February 25, below expectation of 245k. More importantly, that is the lowest level since March 1973 and indicates persistent healthiness in the job market. The four-week moving average dropped to 234.25k, down from 240.50k, hitting lowest since April 1973. Continuing claims rose 2k to 2.07m in the week ended February 18. The greenback is boosted by increasing speculations of a rate hike by Fed this month. Technically, the greenback took out near term resistance level against Sterling and Canadian Dollar earlier this week. While it's still limited below corresponding resistance against Euro and Yen, AUD/USD is following and broke a near term support level today.
The Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage emerges as the biggest party in the European Parliament, with 29 seats and 31.6% (up +31.6% from previously) of the votes across the 12 regions in the UK. Surge in votes was...
Sterling is sold off broadly today as Brexit optimism quickly turned into political turmoil. UK Prime Minister Theresa May appeared to have secured Cabinet support on her Brexit agreement with EU. But in less than 24 hours, four ministers...
Much volatility was seen in the markets last week with a lot of themes developed. Canadian Dollar ended as the strongest one as strong data boosted chance of August BoC hike. Swiss Franc followed as the second strongest on...
The financial markets are generally holding their breath as speeches of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi at the Jackson Hole Symposiums are awaited. The occasion is seen in recent years as a platform to launch monetary policy shifts. But this time, neither Yellen nor Draghi is expected to deliver anything drastic regarding monetary policy in near term. At the same time, this could also be Yellen's last address at Jackson Hole since it's uncertain whether she will be granted another term by US President Donald Trump, after the current one expires in February. Yellen might make use of the speech on financial stability to lay down from ground work for the future and leave some legacy.
Yen and Swiss Franc extends last week's strong rally as risk aversion dominates Asian markets. A key trigger is the free fall in the Chinese Yuan, which dives through psychologically important 7 level against Dollar, in response to trade...
Dollar is trading as the strongest one as partly helped by the post ECB selloff in Euro. In part, there were delayed reactions to the hawkish Fed announcement too, which indicates it will hike two more times this year....
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