CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies Got Dumped on Hopes of Fed’s Tapering and Resurgence of Pandemic
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 17, NET SHORT of USD index futures dropped -115 contracts to 19 211. Speculative long positions slipped -515 contracts while shorts decreased -400 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures jumped +23 783...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Aversion Trumped Oil, Lifted Precious Metals
Trader trimmed bets on crude oil futures as the outlook has become more uncertain amidst rising coronavirus cases and Fed's tapering in the near future. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 17. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +3 910 contracts...
Sentiments Deteriorated on Delta, China and Fed Tapering
Overall market sentiments deteriorated notably last week, with concerns over the swift spread of Delta variant and return to lockdowns, Fed's tapering and slowdown in China. A softening tone from a Fed hawk on tapering gave sentiment a late lift, but it remained to bee seen if that could...
Canadian Dollar Stays Weak after Retail Sales
Canadian Dollar is trading as the worst performing one today and slightly weaker than expected retail sales data provide little help. Persistent weakness in oil price is weighing down the loonie, together with overall negative sentiment. Overnight development is unchanged that Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are the strongest...
PBOC Left Policy Rate Unchanged. Further Easing Inevitable as Economy Prone to Weaken in Second Half
PBOC left the loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85% in July. The inaction does not suggest that the current monetary policy is appropriate. Weakness in economic activities is expected to exacerbate in the second half of the year, thanks to the resurgence of the pandemic and the lingering...
USD, JPY and CHF in Range Against Each Other, AUD and CAD Heavy
Dollar, Swiss Franc and Yen are taking turns to be the strongest, with the greenback having a little upper hand. But they're kept in range against each other. Commodity currencies remain the weakest, with Aussie additionally pressured by strict lockdowns, while Loonie is dragged down by falling oil prices....
Dollar, Yen and Franc in Three-Horse Race as Risk Aversion Intensifies
Selloff in commodity currencies intensifies today as risk sentiment turn sour again. Major European indexes are all in deep red while US futures point to lower open. Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar are taking turns to be the strongest one in a three-horse race. Aussie is so far the...
Dollar Rises Again on Risk Aversion, Aussie Weak after Job Report
Dollar rises broadly again risk sentiment turned sour again. While Yen and Swiss Franc are still firm elsewhere, the greenback has overtaken their top position for the week. Meanwhile, commodity currencies remain the worst performing ones, as led by New Zealand Dollar, closely followed by Australian Dollar. Euro and...
Dollar Digests Gains, Canadian Dollar Recovers Mildly after CPI
Canadian Dollar rises mildly in early US session after stronger than expected consumer inflation reading. But strength of the Loonie is related limited. It remains one of the worst performing for the week, just next to Australian and New Zealand Dollar. Aussie continues to be weighed down by lockdowns...
RBNZ Left OCR Unchanged Amidst Latest Lockdown. Hawkishness Maintained
To everyone’s surprise, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 0.25% in August. The decision was made in light of the renewed New Zealand’s lockdown after a report of one coronavirus case. Policymakers, however, maintained a hawkish stance, suggesting that the next policy decision would be tightening. Meanwhile, the...
Kiwi Jitters after RBNZ Stands Pat, Euro Weakening
Commodity currencies recover mildly in Asian session but remain the worst performing ones for the week. Markets seemed to have priced in RBNZ standing pat well already. New Zealand Dollar recovered very quickly after initial spike following the announcement. On the other hand, Swiss Franc, Yen and to a...
Risk-Off Sentiment Supports Swiss Franc, Yen and Dollar
Souring risk sentiment continues to support Swiss Franc and Yen today, while Dollar is also trying to catch up. Commodity currencies are still the weakest ones. In particular, New Zealand Dollar tumbles on talks that RBNZ could refrain from delivering the highly anticipated rate hike tomorrow, as the country...
Aussie Stays Weak after RBA Minutes, Same as Other Commodity Currencies
Commodity currencies remained generally pressured in Asian session today. While DOW and S&P 500 managed to reverse initial losses to close at new record highs, there is no follow through risk-on sentiment in Asia. Canadian Dollar is additionally weighed down with WTI crude oil dipping below 68 handle. Aussie...
Swiss Franc and Yen Rise as Markets Turn to Risk-Off Mode
Risk aversion is a main theme today, on situation in Afghanistan, poor China data, and spread of Delta virus. Yen and Swiss Franc rise broadly, and to a lesser extent followed by Dollar. Commodity currencies are all in red, in particular with Aussie pressured by increasing pandemic restrictions. On...
RBNZ Preview – Raising Rate as Least Regrets Option
The market has priced in a 25 bps hike, bringing the OCR to 0.5%, at this week’s RBNZ meeting. Much stronger-than-expected economic recovery since the last meeting, the rapidly rising inflation and inflation expectations, and a better job market are the key reasons for the rate increase. Signs of...
Yen Rises on Weak China Data, Strong Delta Spread
Yen rises broadly in Asian session on a couple of risk off factor, all linked to the pandemic. The set of weaker than expected data from China suggested that recovery is losing much momentum as the coronavirus is back. Japan reported surge in infections while Australia is also back...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Aussie to Go Lower as Resurgence of Pandemic Triggers Lockdown Extension
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 10, NET SHORT of USD index futures added +445 contracts to 19 326. Speculative long positions rose +2 514 contracts while shorts increased +2 069 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures fell...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Crude Oil Price Shrank as Widespread Coronavirus could Again Hurt Chinese Demand
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 10. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -30 114 contracts to 400 413 for the week. Speculative long position sank -27 408 contracts, while shorts increased +2 706 contracts. As we had anticipated, the sharp...
Slowing Core Inflation, Deteriorating Consumer Sentiment, and Split Fed
It's all about the consumers. After slowing core inflation and sharp deterioration in sentiment, Dollar took a steep dive towards the end of the week. Markets are suddenly less sure about a tapering announcement by Fed in September, not to mention anything concrete from Jackson Hole symposium later in...
EUR/USD Rebounds ahead of Weekend, Confirming Short Term Bottoming?
Euro and Swiss Franc rise broadly as the markets are approaching the weekly close. On the other hand, Canadian Dollar is reversing some of this week's gains, while Dollar is following as second weakest for the day. As for the week, the Loonie is still the strongest, followed by...