Fri, Sep 20, 2019 @ 22:47 GMT
Canadian recovers notably today following the strong rally in oil prices, after attack on Saudi Arabia's oil production. Yen follows as the second strongest on mild risk aversion, as sentiments are also weighed down by poor Chinese data. On...
Yen traders broadly lower today as risk appetite extends from Asia markets to Europe and then US. Dollar is following as the second weakest and then Swiss Franc. Meanwhile, New Zealand, Australian and Canadian Dollars are the strongest one....
Dollar attempted for recovery overnight but momentum has been very weak. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren's hawkish comments provided brief lift to the greenback. But weakness in stocks and yield limited Dollar's gain. European majors are trading broadly lower for the week. Sterling was sold off as UK finally submitted formal request for Brexit yesterday. Euro was weighed down as traders pared expectations of stimulus exit from ECB any time soon. Commodity currencies are trading higher for the week but is bounded in established range. In other markets, DJIA closed down -0.2% at 20659.32 after failing to take out 20757.89 near term resistance. 10 year yield's recovery failed below 55 day EMA and closed at 2.386, down -0.023. Gold engages in sideway consolidation around 1250. WTI crude oil rebounded strongly and is heading back towards 50 handle.
Australian Dollar trading broadly lower today after RBA kept interest rate unchanged. While there was no clear dovish shift, the statement suggests that RBA is starting to get ready for a move. Weakness in Aussie takes New Zealand Dollar...
Sterling was the star winner last week as boosted by renewed hope of a Brexit deal between the government and opposition. Poor results for both Conservatives and Labours are piling pressure on both parties to end the Brexit standoff...
Dollar is trying to recover some of the steep losses triggered by much more dovish than expected FOMC economic projections. The greenback is now trading mixed for the day, and it's indeed up against Sterling and Canadian for the...
Aussie dropped after the weaker than expected inflation report, as traders took profit after the currency rallied to 2-year against USD and last week. Headline CPI moderated to +1.9% y/y in 2Q17 from +2.1% a quarter ago. The market had anticipated an increase to +2.2%. Key contributors to the weakness were lower automotive fuel prices as global oil prices plunged and the usual seasonal drop in domestic holiday, travel and accommodation prices. RBA's trimmed mean slipped 0.1 percentage point to +1.8%, in line with expectation, while the weighted median CPI climbed +0.1 percentage point to +1.8% in the second quarter. Consumer price levels are an important gauge of central banks' monetary outlook. The dilemma currently facing major central banks worldwide is the continuing economic growth and employment market improvement, alongside subdued inflation. At the July meeting minutes, RBA acknowledged that weak inflation is a global phenomenon with core inflation remaining low while headline inflation turning down..
Dollar recovered overnight as Fed delivered the widely expected rate hike. The overall announcement, including new economic projections, was not as bad as some anticipated. Fed maintained the projection of a total of three rate hike this year. Downward revision in 2017 inflation forecast was somewhat offset by the upward revision in GDP forecast and downward revision in unemployment rate forecast. On other hand, both growth and inflation forecasts for 2018 and 2019 were held unchanged. While the greenback was lifted, it's clearly not out of the woods yet as markets seem not fully convinced by what Fed said.
As widely anticipated, RBA left its cash rate unchanged at1.5% in February, its first meeting in 2017. Policymakers acknowledged improvement in the global economic outlook. They also retained the view that the domestic economy would growth above-trend. The overall monetary stance is neutral, signaling the central bank is in no hurry to adjust the policy. The market is closely awaiting Governor Philip Lowe's speech on Thursday and RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) on Friday. The SoMP would reveal policymakers' updated economic forecasts. We expect downgrades of both growth and inflation outlooks.
Yen and Dollar are the strongest ones today as global stock markets are back in selloff mode. Sentiments turned sour after weaker than expected Chinese sales and production data. Adding to that, Eurozone came showed further decline in growth...
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks surged +12.73  mmb to 1257.33 mmb in the week ended April 26. Crude oil inventory soared +9.93 mmb to...
Euro surges sharply today on optimistic comments from ECB President Mario Draghi, who also hints at policy tweaks ahead. EUR/USD jumps through 1.28 level and is now having key resistance at 1.1298 in sight. EUR/JPY resumes larger rise from April low at 114.84 and takes out 126.09 key resistance. EUR/GBP is also having focus back on 0.8851/65 key resistance zone and could be resuming larger rise from 0.8312. Meanwhile, Yen remains the weakest one as broad based selloff continues. Strength in Euro is now making dollar vunlerable to downside breakout against Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar.
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 10, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +44 048 contracts to 428 205 for the week. Speculative long positions soared +18 639 contracts and shorts...
Dollar recovers this week but momentum isn't too strong so far. Indeed, the greenback is overwhelmed by the strength in Canadian Dollar, which follows high oil prices and hawkish BoC comments. Dollar is still holding well below near term resistance against Euro, Pound and even Aussie, and maintains bearishness. Meanwhile, Yen also tried to recover on news of geopolitical tensions in Korea but no follow through buying is seen. US markets will be back from holiday today with major focus on FOMC minutes. Sterling will look into PMI services for inspirations.
Asian markets trade lower as the week starts on concerns of unrests and geopolitical tensions caused by US president Donald Trump's executive order regarding immigration ban. Trump signed an executive order last Friday, suspending entry of people from seven Muslim-majority countries for 90 days and suspending the refugee program for 120 days. The situation has then developed into a chaotic one as a federal judge in Brooklyn temporarily blocked part of the executive order. And there were waves of protests with ten of thousands of people rallied in US cities to voice the opposition of the order. The uncertainties over the situation weighed down on market sentiments As Nikkei lost -0.51%. In the currency markets, Dollar trades broadly lower except versus Kiwi. Yen surges on risk aversion. The uncertainties might take some time to clear.
Dollar ended as the strongest major currency last week as economic data released affirmed a December Fed hike. The surprised contraction in non-farm payroll was offset by strong wage growth. However, the greenback pared back some of its gain on resurgence on North Korea risk. On the other hand, the British Pound suffered broad based heavy selling as there were increasing calls for Prime Minister Theresa May to step down, in the crucial time of trade negotiations with the world. In spite of political uncertainties in Catalonia, Euro showed much resilience and ended the week mixed only. North Korea, Catalonia, Theresa May, Japan election, are the key things to watch ahead. Politics might overshadow economic data again.
The forex markets are having no clear direction for the moment. In particular, positive data from Europe were generally ignored by currencies even though yields and stocks are lifted. At the same time, there is no clarity regarding Brexit...
2017 is year of high uncertainty, mainly hinging on the shift of global political agendas, from the new policy direction under Trump's administration, to the beginning of negotiations between the UK and the EU on Brexit, to the leadership transition in China. On the currency outlook, we remain constructive over USD this year, anticipating Trump's pro-growth policy would drive higher economic expansion and inflation, and facilitate a tighter monetary policy stance. With the market shy of pricing in three Fed funds rate hikes (as signaled in the December dot plot) this year, there is room for USD to rally further should incoming macroeconomic data eventually convince traders that more rate hikes are possible. We are bearish on Treasuries and expect US yields to move higher, especially at the front-end. Monetary policy divergence should bold well for the greenback, especially against the euro.
Sterling trades broadly lower today on UK politics news. Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservatives was originally having over 20pts lead over Labour back when May announced the snap election back in April. But according to the latest Survation telephone poll, the lead halved to 9% only. The poll put Conservatives on 43% while Labour at 34%. The election is seen as an important step for May to gain solid mandate for Brexit negotiation. And a less than satisfactory result could weaken May's position.
Central bank comments and rate expectations continued to be the main drivers in the global financial markets last week. However, the developments reminded us that no matter how hawkish central bankers sound, monetary policies have to be supported by data. Canadian Dollar being an example that BoC Governor Stephen Poloz's hawkish comments were supported by strong employment data. And the Loonie ended as the strongest major currency as markets are generally expecting a BoC rate hike on July 12 this week. Dollar ended as the second strongest one after solid ISM indices and non-farm payroll headline number even though markets are not convinced of a September Fed hike. Meanwhile, Euro was the third strongest as markets perceived the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts as a hawkish one.
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