BOE Preview – Awaiting Signals to Exit
The focus of this week's BOE is whether the result of the policy review would be revealed. In particular, whether there will be guideline on BOE's exit sequence of QE and record low policy rate. Meanwhile, economic projections in reflection of the economic developments since the June would also...
Kiwi Jumps after Strong Employment Data, Dollar Weakness Continues
Following strong closes in US stocks, Asian markets ex-Japan are trading generally higher. The development helps lift commodity currencies generally higher. In particular, New Zealand Dollar is additionally lifted by much stronger than expected job data. Yen is paring some gains but weak treasury yields is keeping it afloat....
Dollar Back Under Pressure as Swiss Franc Surges Again
Dollar is under some pressure as falling treasury yield is weighing down the greenback. Canadian Dollar is even weaker as WTI oil price breaches 70 handle again. New Zealand and Australian Dollars are the stronger ones but gains are limited. The post RBA lift on Aussie is so far...
RBA Sticks with Tapering in September, Shrugging Off Short-term Impacts of Lockdown
Surprisingly, the RBA remained optimistic about the economic outlook despite the lockdown in various states over the past weeks. At today’s meeting, the members decided to go ahead with QE tapering from September and upgraded economic forecasts.
The central bank maintained a upbeat view over Australia’s economy. As governor Philip...
Aussie Rebounds as RBA Sticks to Tapering Plan, Yen Firm on Falling Yields
Australia Dollar rebounds notably after RBA surprised markets by sticking to its tapering plan. Kiwi appears to be a touch stronger, but Aussie is not far away. Yen is also firm on falling treasury yields. On the other hand, Canadian Dollar is trading generally lower as oil price retreated....
Sterling Weakens in Mixed Trading, Euro Recovers
Sterling is notably lower today in otherwise mixed markets. Euro is also firm, with help from recovery against the Pound. Aussie is the stronger one, mainly because it's paring last week's losses. Upside is so far limited ahead of tomorrow's RBA monetary policy decision. On the other hand, Swiss...
RBA Preview – Delaying Taper and Downgrading Near-Term Growth Forecasts
We expect the RBA to postpone the tapering policy announced last month. It will also downgrade GDP growth forecast for this year and revise the unemployment rate higher. All the above changes are driven by the unexpected lockdown in New South Wales, Australia's largest state economy accounting for around...
Dollar Recovers Mildly But Key Events Lie Ahead
The market opened the month with mildly positive sentiment, with major Asian indexes trading higher. But there is little reaction in the currency markets. Commodity currencies are generally soft for now, with slight losses in particular in Kiwi and Loonie. On the other hand, Dollar, Yen and Euro are...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Short of GBP Futures will Likely Trim Next Week
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 27, NET SHORT of USD index futures rose +4 353 contracts to 16 541. Speculative long positions added +2 976 contracts while shorts decreased -1 377 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Crude Oil’s Net Long Increased Only Slightly Despite Price Rise
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 27. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +1 024 contracts to 449 764 for the week. Speculative long position gained +8 365 contracts, while shorts increased +7 341 contracts. Bets on higher and lower crude...
More Downside for Dollar and Aussie, Swiss Franc Outperforms
Dollar's selloff caught much attention last week, but slowed towards the end. Traders are holding their bets for now, awaiting the coming batch of July data. Indeed, Australian Dollar was the worst performer, mainly on RBA QE expectations, and partly on risk aversion in China and Hong Kong. New...
Dollar Recovers after Personal Income and Spending, But Still the Worst Performer
Dollar recovers mildly in early US session, following slight weakness in risk sentiments. Additionally, stronger than expected personal income and spending are providing some support too. Still, the greenback remains the worst performing one for the week. There is prospect of Yen, Aussie or Kiwi overtaking Dollar as biggest...
Dollar Soft after Selloff, Euro Awaits GDP
Dollar suffered another round of selloff overnight and stays soft. Mild risk aversion in Asia is not helping the greenback much. But commodity currencies are following closely, in particular Aussie and Kiwi, as the next worst performers for the week. European majors look set to be the winners of...
Dollar Drops Further after GDP and Job Misses, Gold Surges
Dollar's decline continues and accelerates a little in early US session after weak economic data. Gold is also accelerating upwards, in tandem with the greenback's movements. Yen is following as second worst for now, following recovery in European stocks and US futures. Commodity currencies and Sterling are currently the...
Dollar Falls Broadly after Fed, Q2 GDP Next
Dollar drops broadly overnight and stays weak, even though Fed acknowledged that progress has already been made in the economy. Uncertainty in the risk markets is keeping Aussie soft too. But Canadian Dollar is apparently rebounding with resilience in oil prices. Sterling is also strong with Swiss Franc while...
FOMC Review: Economy Moving Toward Inflation and Employment Goals. FOMC Minutes and Jackson Holes in Focus
The Fed sounded cautiously optimistic at the July meeting. The members acknowledged continued improvements in economic activities and that “the economy has made progress toward" the "maximum employment and price stability goals". While leaving all monetary policy measures unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell affirmed the the ongoing discussions over tapering....
Dollar Trying to Recover ahead of FOMC, Market Sentiments Steady
Dollar is trying to recover in early US session but upside is limited so far. Overall market sentiments stabilized as US stocks might have regained footing for another take on new records. Also, traders are turning a little bit more cautious ahead of FOMC statement and press conference. Overall...
Aussie to Stay Weak in Near-term as Lockdown Measures to Weigh On Third Quarter Growth. RBA could Delay Tapering
AUDUSD is prone to be the weakest performer among majors in July. The selloff accelerated 2 weeks ago as the resurgence of coronavirus has triggered lockdown in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. In the near-term, sentiment over the currency pair could remain weak as state governments would...
Sterling Firm, Dollar Mixed, as Focus Turns to FOMC
Asian markets continue to trade in risk averse mode today but selling has somewhat decelerated. Commodity currencies remain the weakest ones for the weak on risk-off sentiment, while Aussie is ignoring stronger than expected inflation reading. Yen and Swiss Franc are both strong, but they were outshone by Sterling....
Yen Jumps Again as Markets Turned Risk-Off
Overall markets are in risk-off mode today, started with steep selloff in Hong Kong and China stocks. Nevertheless, losses in Europe are limited, while DOW future is just slightly lower. In the currency markets, commodity currencies are the worst performing ones, as led by New Zealand Dollar. Yen is...