Fed Officials Shrugged by Markets, Focus Turns to BoE and US Data
The chorus of Fedspeaks overnight provided little inspirations to the markets. Some policy makers expected tapering in the coming months, followed by rate hike next year. Some remained more cautious on the outlook. That's what we already know from the Fed's dot plot already. Major US indexes closed mixed...
Sharp Fall in US Inventory Gives Further Boost to Crude Oil Price
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined -5.81 mmb to 1282.86 mmb in the week ended June 18. Crude oil inventory slumped -7.61 mmb (consensus: -3.94 mmb) to 459.06 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...
Yen Selloff Continues With Dollar, Commodity Currencies Strong
The forex markets continue to stay in sort of risk-on mode today, with weakness in Dollar and Yen, and strength in commodity currencies as led by New Zealand Dollar. Though, traders in other markets are not too committed yet. European indexes are just mixed while US futures point to...
China to Continue Curbing Excess Strength in Renminbi
Losing -1.8% month-to-date, CNY has erased much of the gain made against USD since the beginning of the year. While the broadly based USD rally after the June FOMC meeting is the major driver, PBOC’s intervention has also prevented the renminbi from having meaningful gains. In April and May,...
Yen Extends Decline on Risk-On Markets, Completed Corrective Rebound
Yen dropped notably overnight and stays pressured in Asian session with markets back in risk-on mode. NASDAQ closed at new record high while DOW and S&P 500 also gained. Major Asian indexes follow with solid gains in Hong Kong. Dollar also extended this week's retreat but losses are so...
Dollar Awaits Fed Powell, Sterling Bulls Not Giving Up
Trading in the forex markets is rather subdued today, as in other financial markets. Dollar continues to consolidate recent rise while European stocks and US futures are treading water. Focus turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony for fresh inspirations. . Sterling bulls hesitated in early part of European...
BOE Preview: Not Yet Time for Tapering as Virus Resurgence Raises Economic Uncertainty
The BOE would maintain an upbeat tone at this week's meeting. However, the uncertainty, in particular a third wave of the pandemic which has caused a delay in restriction easing, suggests that it would be too early to hint about tapering of monetary policy or pushing forward the first...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Expect USD Net Short to Drop Next Week on Greenback’s Rebound
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 15, USD index futures drifted to NET SHORT of 2 303 contracts. Speculative long positions dropped -6 273 contracts while shorts decreased -2 219 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures soared +10...
Sterling Firms Up While Dollar and Yen Consolidate
The forex markets are generally staying in consolidative mode today. Dollar and Yen pulled back slightly overnight, together with the notable rebound in stocks. But both are regaining some grounds while commodity currencies soften. Traders would likely be holding their bets on the next move first, waiting for some...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Crude Oil Price Increased Further as $70/bbl Level Breached
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 15, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +13 457 contracts to 523 956 for the week. Speculative long position gained +7 013 contracts, while shorts fell -6 444 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dollar and Yen in Brief Retreat as Stocks and Yields Rebound
Dollar and Yen retreat as markets enter into US session. Stock markets are staging a mild rebound in Europe, while US futures also point to higher open. Treasury yields also recovered from earlier decline, with US 10-year yield back above 1.4 handle at the time of writing. New Zealand...
Yen Surges on Falling Stocks and Yields, Dollar Takes a Breather
Yen rises broadly today as risk aversion is dominating the overall financial markets. In particular, US 10-year yield dives through 1.4 handle in Asia, and we'd see if the weakness would persist. Though, selling focus is turning from Aussie and Kiwi to Canadian. Dollar is consolidating last week's strong...
Dollar Solidified Strong Near Term Rally, But Not in Long Term Reversal Yet
Dollar ended last week sharply higher as boosted by the surprisingly hawkish FOMC projections. Yen followed as second strongest on steep selloff in stocks, while Euro is a distant third. Commodity currencies were the worst performers, with Aussie leading the way, followed by New Zealand Dollar. Though, Swiss Franc...
Sterling Tumbles on Poor Retail Sales and Rise in Coronavirus Cases
Sterling is among the worst performing currency for today, together with commodity currencies. Poor retail sales data from the UK is weighing on the Pound. Additionally, the resurgence in coronavirus infections, now due to the delta variant, in the UK is concerning. Daily new cases jumped above 11k, after...
Dollar Consolidating Gains, Yen Also Firm after BoJ
Dollar is consolidating some gains in Asia session today but remains overwhelmingly the strongest for the week. Yen is following closely as second best. Yet, there is no one-sided risk aversion in the markets to help Yen against Dollar. US stock indexes ended mixed overnight only, while Asian markets...
Dollar Power Continues, But Yen Trying to Overtake
Dollar's post-FOMC strength continues to overwhelm the markets today. Though, Yen is also catching up as US futures point to a weak open. Selling in commodity Yen crosses is also helping the Japanese currency. Swiss Franc is currently the worst performing, as SNB sounded it's fully in inertia despite...
Dollar Soars on Hawkish FOMC, EUR/USD Breaks 1.2
Dollar surges overnight after much hawkish than expected Fed interest rate projections. The case of near term bullish reversal continues to build up and there is prospect of further rally before weekend. Markets are relatively mixed elsewhere though. Australian Dollar is lifted by strong job data while New Zealand...
Fed Projects 2 Rate Hikes in 2023, Strongly Upgrades Growth and Inflation Outlook
The Fed has turned more hawkish at the June meeting. Besides significant upgrades in the GDP growth and inflation forecasts, the median dot plots now project two rate hikes in 2023, compared with no rate hike until 2024. At the press conference, Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that the...
Markets Await Fed, Canadian Dollar Shrugs Strong CPI
Dollar softens quite notably in early US session as markets await FOMC rate decision. Though, Swiss Franc and Euro appear to be slightly weaker. On the other hand, Kiwi and Aussie are strengthening mildly but Canadian Dollar shrugs off stronger than expected consumer inflation data. Sterling also firms up...
China’s Recovery Slowed in May amidst Resurgence of Pandemic
China’s major economic data missed expectations in May. Industrial production (IP) expanded +8.8% y/y in May, worse than consensus of +9.2% and April’s +9.8%. Retail sales growth decelerated to +12.4% y/y, from +17.7% in April. The market had anticipated a +14% growth. Fixed asset investment (FAI) gained +15.4% y/y...