Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 61.4 in Aug, another month of buoyant production

    Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 61.4 in August, down from July’s 62.8. Markit said output and new orders sub-indices fell further from survey highs in March. Inflationary pressures eased, but remained substantial.

    Looking at the member states, readings remained generally strong: Netherlands (65.8), Ireland (62.8), Germany (62.6), Austria (61.8), Italy (60.9), Spain (59.5), Greece (59.3), France (57.5).

    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Eurozone manufacturers reported another month of buoyant production in August, continuing the growth spurt into its fourteenth successive month. The overriding issue was again a lack of components, however, with suppliers either unable to produce enough parts or are facing a lack of shipping capacity to meet logistics demand.

    “These supply issues were the primary cause of a shortfall of manufacturing production relative to orders of a magnitude not previously recorded by the survey, surpassing the 24-year record deficit seen in July.”

    Full release here.

    BoC’s Macklem: Path to 2% inflation slow and risks remain

      In a speech, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem underscored the importance of allowing “more time” for monetary policy to take full effect in mitigating inflationary pressures within the Canadian economy. The path to 2% target is “likely to be slow” and “risks remain.

      Macklem acknowledged the successes of recent rate hikes in aligning supply with demand, pointing to a discernible decrease in inflation across both goods and services. Shelter inflation, however, continues to pose a significant challenge. He attributed this trend not only to monetary tightening but also to deeper issues in the “structural shortage of housing” that monetary policy alone cannot resolve.

      Further complicating the inflation landscape are the volatile oil and transportation costs linked to international conflicts and disruptions. While these factors are beyond the control of BoC, Macklem emphasized the central bank’s focus on mitigating any broader inflationary impacts these cost increases might “feed through” to inflation in other goods and services.

      Macklem’s outlook projects a gradual return to the 2% inflation target, with expectations set for inflation to remain near 3% in the first half of the year, decreasing to about 2.5% by the end of the year, and finally achieving 2% target in 2025.

      “Putting this all together, the resulting push and pull on inflation means the path back to 2% inflation is likely to be slow and risks remain,” he noted.

      Full speech of BoC Macklem here.

      Fed Mester: No reason to have a smaller hike than 75bps

        Cleveland President Loretta Mester told Bloomberg TV yesterday, the June inflation report was “uniformly bad”. “There was no good news in that report at all,” she said. “We at the Fed have to be very deliberate and intentional about continuing on this path of raising our interest rate until we get and see convincing evidence that inflation has turned a corner.”

        “Certainly the inflation report suggests that there’s no reason to say that a smaller rate increase than we did last time, right, because nothing moved in that direction,” she added.

        Asked if a 100bps hike is appropriate this month, Mester said, “We’re going to have the meeting and we’re going to talk about what the appropriate path of policy is. We don’t have to make a decision today.”

        Fed Mester: No compelling case to start with 50bps hike

          Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester “each meeting is going to be in play” regarding interest rate decisions. She added, “we’re going to assess conditions, we’re going to assess how the economy’s evolving, we’re going to be looking at the risks, and we’re going to be removing accommodation.”

          On the idea of a 50bps rate hike in March, Mester said “I don’t like taking anything off the table.” However, “I don’t think there’s any compelling case to start with a 50 basis point”.

          “Again, we’ve got to be a little bit careful. Even though you can well telegraph what’s coming, when you take that first action, there’s going to be a reaction,” she added.

          On the topic of balance sheet runoff, Mester said, “I would support selling some of our mortgage-backed securities at some point during the reduction period to speed the conversion of our portfolio’s composition to primarily Treasuries.”

          USTR on track to impose new 15% tariffs on China on Sept 1

            US Trade Representative office affirmed that the administration is carrying on with the plan to impose new tariffs on China. In Federal Register notice, it’s noted that 15% tariffs will take effect on part of the USD 300B in Chinese goods, starting September 1.

            The second batch of products include cell phones and laptop computers. 15% tariffs on this second batch will take effect of December 15.

            Fed Kaplan wants tapering soon, but not aggressive on rate

              Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told Reuters that, “as long as we continue to make progress in July numbers and in August jobs numbers, I think we’d be better off to start adjusting these purchases soon,” referring to the QE program.

              He added that tapering over a time frame of “plus or minus” about eight months would help give the Fed ” as much flexibility as possible to be patient and be flexible on the Fed funds rate.”

              He emphasized it’s “important to divorce discussion of the Fed funds rate from discussion of our purchases.” His comments on purchases are not intended to suggest I want to take more aggressive action on the Fed funds rate.”

              Forecasters downgrade Eurozone inflation and growth projections in ECB survey

                In the Q4 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Eurozone inflation expectations were revised down on average across all horizons. Real GDP growth expectations was also revised down, particularly for 2020. Meanwhile, unemployment rate expectations were also revised up.

                • HICP inflation is projected to be at 1.2% in 2019 (vs Q3 projection of 1.3%), 1.2% in 2020 (vs 1.4%) and 1.4% in 2021 (vs 1.5%).
                • Core HICP is projected to be at 1.1% in 2019 (vs 1.1%) 1.2% in 2020 (vs 1.3%), and 1.4% in 2021 (vs 1.5%).
                • Real GDP growth is projected to be at 1.1% in 2019 (vs 1.2%), 1.0% in 2020 (vs 1.3%) and 1.3% in 2021 (vs 1.4%).
                • Unemployment rate is projected to be at 7.6% in 2019 (vs 7.6%), 7.5% in 2020 (vs 7.4%) and 7.4% in 2021 (vs 7.3%.

                Full report here.

                China PPI slowed to 14-mth low, CPI unchanged

                  China PPI slowed notably from 8.0% yoy to 6.4% yoy in May, below expectation of 6.5% yoy. That’s also the lowest level in 14 months since March 2021. CPI was unchanged at 2.1% yoy, below expectation of 2.5% yoy. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was unchanged at 0.9% yoy.

                  “In May, the pandemic control continued to improve, with overall sufficient supplies in the consumer market, CPI has decreased compared to last month, and the year-on-year increase remained stable,” said senior NBS statistician Dong Lijuan. “As a great amount of fresh vegetables entered the market and logistics gradually smooth, prices of fresh vegetables fell by 15 per cent”.

                  Fed softened hawkish tone, but not dovish

                    In light of the Fed announcement and press conference overnight, it appears that another 25bps rate hike is likely in May, followed by a prolonged pause with no rate cut expected until next year. The overall picture remains hawkish, albeit not as much as after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s earlier testimony this month.

                    As anticipated, Fed raised interest rates by 25bps to 4.75-5.00%. While the tightening bias was maintained, the statement softened its tone, stating, “some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Despite recent market turmoil, median projections still indicated an interest rate peak of 5.1% this year, suggesting one more 25bps hike before pausing until next year. The median projection for 2024 interest rate increased from 4.1% to 4.3%, signaling a slower path of rate cuts.

                    During the post-meeting press conference, Powell acknowledged that “financial conditions seem to have tightened” recently, adding that if the situation persists, it could “easily have a significant macroeconomic effect, and we would factor that into our policy decisions.” While he admitted that a pause was considered during the meeting, he emphasized that a rate cut this year was “not our baseline expectation,” stating, “the key is we have to have policies tight enough to bring inflation down to 2%.”

                    Suggested readings on Fed:

                    Gold ready to resume up trend through 1557, to target 1625 projection level

                      Gold surges sharply in the past two days after getting rid of 55 day EMA decisively, breaking 1500 handle. The development now suggests that corrective fall from 1557.04 has completed at 1445.59 already, supported by 38.2% retracement of 1266.26 to 1557.04 at 1445.95.

                      Further rise should now be seen to retest 1557.04 first. Break will resume whole up trend form 1160.17, as well as that from 1046.37. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1266.26 to 1557.04 from 1445.59 at 1625.29. As rise from 1445.59 could be the fifth leg of the five-wave sequence from 1160.17, we’d expect strong resistance from 1625.29 to limit upside to bring medium term correction.

                      Mnuchin: There were “very good conversations” with China

                        US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, now in Beijing on the second day of trade talk with China, said there were “very good conversations”. But he didn’t made any further comments.

                        Meanwhile, Mark Calabria, chief economist to U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, commented on the US-China trade negotiations in Washington. He said that the “full day of negotiations” has been “fairly positive”. There were “pretty positive things” from China. But “the question question is whether they will actually do them”.

                        The official China Daily newspaper said in an editorial that “acceptable agreements can be reached if both sides have realistic expectations of their give and take.” The usually hawkish Global Times said that “since both sides have their bottom lines to keep, it may be hard to reach a deal, but it is good to start somewhere.”

                        US ADP employment missed expectation, but job markets remains incredibly dynamic

                          ADP report showed 163k growth in private sector jobs in August, below expectation of 188k. Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute said in the relesaed that “although we saw a small slowdown in job growth the market remains incredibly dynamic”. And, “midsized businesses continue to be the engine of growth, adding nearly 70 percent of all jobs this month, and remain resiliant in the current economic climate.”

                          Also, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is hot. Employers are aggressively competing to hold onto their existing workers and to find new ones. Small businesses are struggling the most in this competition, as they increasingly can’t fill open positions.”

                          Full release here.

                          RBA considered hike and hold, Dec minutes show

                            Minutes of RBA’s December 5 meeting revealed that both a 25bps hike and maintaining the status quo were considered. Ultimately, they opted to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.35%. The rationale behind this decision was the perceived value in “waiting for further data to assess how the balance of risks was evolving and how best to balance these risks when setting policy.”

                            The board members concurred that the need for additional monetary tightening to ensure inflation returns to the target within a reasonable timeframe would be contingent on how incoming data influences the economic outlook and the assessment of risks.

                            The RBA emphasized its commitment to closely monitoring various economic indicators in its future policy decisions. This includes developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labor market.

                            Full RBA minutes here.

                            EU comments on US auto tariffs investigations full statement

                              Earlier today, Politico reported EU’s comments on US section 232 cars investigation submitted to US Department of Commerce last Friday. Below is the full statement from European Commission. Also, EU requested to participate in public hearing on July 19/20.

                              EU comments on US section 232 Cars investigation

                              The European Union has on Friday 29 June submitted written comments to the US Department of Commerce in the framework of the on-going Section 232 National Security Investigation of imports of automobiles, including cars, SUVs, vans, light trucks and automotive parts.

                              The EU has also requested to participate in the public hearing to be held by the Department of Commerce scheduled for 19 and 20 July.

                              The EU takes the view, as was the case of the section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs, that this current investigation lacks legitimacy, factual basis and violates international trade rules. The EU reiterates its firm opposition to the proliferation of measures taken on supposed national security grounds for the purposes of economic protection. This development harms trade, growth and jobs in the US and abroad, weakens the bonds with friends and allies, and shifts the attention away from the shared strategic challenges that genuinely threaten the market-based Western economic model.

                              The EU written comments relate to various areas on which input was requested by the US Department of Commerce to conduct its current investigation. The EU submits that:

                              1. Imports of European automobiles in the US are stable, in line with US production and responding to market signals. Automobile imports from the EU do not threaten or impair the health of the US industry and economy. The EU and US industry specialise in largely different market segments and over the last 5 years imports from the EU have been stable and correlated to US general GDP growth.

                              2. There is no economic threat to the US automobile industry which is healthy, having steadily expanded domestic production in the last 10 years. Imposing restrictive measures would undermine the current positive trends of the US automobile and automotive parts sector and negatively impact US GDP by up to 13-14 billion USD.

                              3. EU car companies contribute significantly to US welfare and employment. They are well integrated in the US value chain and export about 60 % of automobiles to third countries including the EU, contributing to improving the US trade balance. They provide 120,000 direct upstream jobs in manufacturing plants and 420,000 jobs with dealers. Trade restrictions are likely to lead to higher input costs for US based producers, thus in effect a tax on the American people.

                              4. EU car companies foster innovation through research and develop the local workforce. Rather than posing a threat to national security, they are a driver for securing long-term economic stability and competitiveness. Almost a fifth of research and development expenditures in the US is derived from foreign-owned subsidiaries. The EU automotive industry also actively contributes to enhancing the skillsets of the US workforce.

                              5. The impact on the US economy will be aggravated significantly by the likely countermeasures of US Trading partners, as evidenced by the reaction to the US section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. On the basis of the current section 232 investigation into automobile and automotive parts, US trade restrictive measures could result in a very significant volume of US exports affected, estimated at USD 294 billion (or around 19 % of US total exports in 2017).

                              6. Trade restrictive measures would be contrary to international trade rules. There are no exceptions under the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) that justify import restrictions by a developed country to protect a domestic industry against foreign competition, unless in the form of permitted trade remedy measures. Although the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) provides for security exceptions, the scope of these exceptions has been circumscribed carefully for specific situations and conditions, which are absent in this case.

                              7. There is no national security threat from imports of automobile and automotive parts. Without prejudice, we underline that the Department of Commerce’s analysis of national security must be narrowly tailored to focus on direct threats to national security, in particular defense applications. US needs for vehicles or vehicle parts for defence or military purposes, mainly Light Tactical Vehicles, appear to be covered by US-based specialised suppliers. These operate in a niche market that is independent and unrelated to the US automobile industry. As only products from US based manufacturers are used by the US military, any trade restrictions imposed on the passenger car, light trucks and car parts market cannot be justified on national security grounds.

                              RBA Lowe: Not unrealistic to expect more rate cut

                                In a speech on “The Labour Market and Spare Capacity” delivered today, RBA Governor Philip Lowe reaffirmed that the central bank is on track for further rate cuts again. He said that would be “unrealistic to expect that lowering interest rates by ¼ of a percentage point will materially shift the path we look to be on.” And, “the most recent data – including the GDP and labour market data – do not suggest we are making any inroads into the economy’s spare capacity.”

                                Therefore, “it is not unrealistic to expect a further reduction in the cash rate as the Board seeks to wind back spare capacity in the economy and deliver inflation outcomes in line with the medium-term target.” Though, he also emphasized that Australia should also look into other options to get closer to full employment, including fiscal policy and structural policies.

                                His full speech here.

                                Australian Dollar is the second weakest for today so far, just next to Dollar.

                                Into US session: Sterling higher as consolidation continues, global yields pressured again

                                  Entering into US session, New Zealand and Australian Dollar remain the weakest ones undoubtedly. NZD is sold off sharply after RBNZ indicated that next move is a cut. AUD follows as RBNZ’s dovish shift somewhat solidifies that case for RBA cuts too.

                                  On the other hand, Sterling is the strongest one today. But again, the Pound is stuck in recently established range against Dollar, Euro and Yen. There is no sign of breakout and current rise is nothing more than part of consolidations. The indicative votes on Brexit alternatives will be carried out in the House of Commons today. And debate is due to start by 1500GMT. We’ll see what alternative Brexit path could gain majority in the Parliament.

                                  On development to note is that global treasury yields are back under pressure. Japan 10-year JGB yield closed down -0.0018 at -0.067. German 10-year yield is down -0.0192 at -0.033. US 10-year yield hits as low as 2.379 and is now struggling to climb back above even 2.4 handle. The development might give Yen a little helping hand.

                                  In Europe:

                                  • FTSE is down -0.06%.
                                  • DAX is up 0.35%.
                                  • CAC is up 0.42%. German 10-year yield is down -0.0192 at -0.033.

                                  Earlier in Asia:

                                  • Nikkei dropped -0.23%.
                                  • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.56%.
                                  • China Shanghai SSE rose 0.85%, back above 3000 handle.
                                  • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.06%.
                                  • Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0018 at -0.067.

                                  Into US session: Sterling resilient ahead of BoE, Dollar continues to reverse

                                    Entering into US session, all eyes will be on BoE Inflation Report. The Pound remains broadly strong today, except versus Australian and New Zealand Dollar. The boost from Brexit optimism is rather solid. UK Prime Minister spokesman James Slack said that the news regarding a Brexit financial services deal with the EU are merely speculations. But markets didn’t listen. Sterling also shrugged of much weaker than expected PMI manufacturing, which Markit described as “worrying turnaround.

                                    On the other hand, Dollar suffers broad based selling pressure today. There isn’t any special fundamental news driving the decline. But rather, traders simply took profit as EUR/USD closed in 1.13 key support level. Perhaps today’s ISM manufacturing or tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report could give back some strength to Dollar. For now, Dollar bulls just refuse to commit. Yen is trading as the second weakest, followed by Canadian Dollar.

                                    In European markets, major indices are trading up so far today:

                                    • FTSE is up 0.49%
                                    • CDAXAC up 0.84%
                                    • CAC up 0.41%
                                    • German 10 year yield is up 0.0187 at 0.408, back above 0.4
                                    • Italian 10 year yield is down -0.0805 at 3.352. That is, spread with German is below 300 now.

                                    Earlier in Asia:

                                    • Nikkei dropped -1.06% to 21687.65
                                    • Singapore Strait Times rose 1.39% to 3060.85
                                    • Hong Kong HSI rose 1.75% to 25416.00
                                    • China Shanghai SSE rose only 0.13% to 2606.24. Life above 2600 is not easy.

                                    NZ goods exports rose 14% yoy in Oct, imports surged 24% yoy

                                      New Zealand goods exports rose 14% yoy to NZD 6.1B in October. Goods imports rose 24% yoy to NZD 8.3B. Trade deficit widened from NZD -1.7B to NZD -2.1B, much larger than expectation of NZD -1.7B.

                                      Annual goods expects, comparing with the year ended October 2021, rose 14% to NZD 71.1B. Annual goods imports rose 25% to NZD 84.0B. Annual trade deficit swelled to fresh record of NZD -12.9B, comparing to NZD -4.9B a year ago.

                                      Full release here.

                                      US PPI slowed to 1.9%, core PPI to 2.5%. Durable goods rose 0.4% but core dropped -0.1%

                                        US PPI rose 0.1% mom, 1.9% yoy in February, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.9% yoy. Core PPI rose 0.1% mom, 2.5% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom 2.6% yoy.

                                        Durable goods orders rose 0.4% in January, above expectation of -0.5%. Ex-transport orders dropped -0.1%, below expectation of 0.1%.

                                        Canada retail sales dropped -3.4% mom in Dec, down in 9 out of 11 subsectors

                                          Canada retail sales dropped -3.4% mom to CAD 53.4B in December, below expectation of -2.5% mom. That’s also the worst decline since last April. Ex-auto sales dropped -4.1% mom, below expectation of -2.4% mom.

                                          Sales were down in 9 out of 11 subsectors, representing 83.6% of retail sales. Also, sales were down in every province for the first time since April.

                                          Full release here.