Canada CPI slowed to 6.8% yoy, but accelerated excluding food and energy

    Canada CPI slowed from 6.9% yoy to 6.8% yoy in November. Excluding food and energy, CPI accelerated from 5.3% yoy to 5.4% yoy. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.1% mom, much slower than October’s 0.7% mom.

    CPI median accelerated from 4.9% yoy to 5.0% yoy. CPI trimmed was unchanged at 5.3% yoy. CPI common, accelerated sharply from 6.3% yoy to 6.7% yoy.

    Full release here.

    Japan’s Kanda flags “high urgency” as Dollar bears 148 Yen

      Japan’s Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, Masato Kanda, issued a strong warning as Dollar approaches 148 yen, marking a high for this year.

      Kanda stated, “We are closely monitoring the situation, with a high sense of urgency. If such moves continue, the government will take appropriate measures, and all options are on the table.”

      These remarks are the first significant warning since the Ten dropped below the 145-per-dollar mark in mid-August. Since then, Japanese authorities had been relatively silent.

      With the declared “high sense of urgency”, Japan has effectively put currency traders on alert for potential intervention or other policy moves. The “all options are on the table” comment raises the possibility of multiple policy actions, ranging from more verbal warnings to more market interventions to curb yen’s fall.

      Canada GDP grew 0.7% mom in Jun, to contract -0.4% mom in Jul

        Canada GDP grew 0.7% mom in June, matched expectations. Total economic activity was -1.5% below February 2020’s pre-pandemic level. Overall, 15 of 20 industrial sectors were up. Services-producing industries rose 0.7% mom while goods-producing industries rose 0.9% mom.

        Statistics Canada said preliminary information indicates an approximate -0.4% decline in real GDP for July. The main decreases were in manufacturing, construction and retail trade.

        Full release here.

        US ADP private sector employment rose 204k , little sign of slowdown

          US ADP private sector employment rose 204k in April, slightly above expectation of 200k.

          Quotes from the release:

          Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute-

          • “The labor market continues to maintain a steady pace of strong job growth with little sign of a slowdown
          • “However, as the labor pool tightens it will become increasingly difficult for employers to find skilled talent.
          • Job gains in the high-skilled professional and business services industry accounted for more than half of all jobs added this month.
          • The construction industry, which also relies on skilled labor, continued its six month trend of steady job gains as well.”

          Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics-

          • “Despite rising trade tensions, more volatile financial markets, and poor weather, businesses are adding a robust more than 200,000 jobs per month.
          • At this pace, unemployment will soon be in the threes, which is rarified and risky territory, as the economy threatens to overheat.”

          Full release here.

          US ISM manufacturing dropped to 41.8, lowest since 2009

            US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 41.8 in April, down from 52.5, above expectation of 37.5. A 122-month period of growth has formally ended. Also, it’s that lowest reading since March 2009. Looking at some details, business activity dropped from 48.0 to 26.0, lowest on record since 1997. New orders dropped from 52.9 to 32.9. Employment dropped from 47.0 to 30. Supplier deliveries hit all time high of 78.3, up 16.2, as a result of supply problems due to coronavirus pandemic.

            Full release here.

            Fed Daly: Time to start removing policy accommodation

              San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said inflation is “uncomfortably high” in the US. And, it’s time to “start removing some of the accommodation we’ve been giving to the economy,”

              “I definitely see rate increases coming, as early as March even,” she noted. But she didn’t want to predict the number of rate hikes needed for this year.

              ECJ advocate general said UK can withdraw Brexit unilaterally

                European Court of Justice’s advocate general said today that UK has the right to withdraw Brexit notice unilaterally, up to the point of formal conclusion of the deal. ECJ usually follow the advocate general’s opinions in its final rulings even though they’re not binding.

                To be more exact, ECJ said “Advocate General (Manuel) Campos Sanchez-Bordona proposes that the Court of Justice should declare that Article 50 … allows the unilateral revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU”. And, “That possibility continues to exist until such time as the withdrawal agreement is formally concluded.”

                NASDAQ set for deeper selloff as key support shattered

                  US stocks underwent a marked decline overnight, with NASDAQ at the forefront, shedding -1.76% of its value. This follows closely on the heels of Wednesday’s downturn, where the tech-driven index recorded its most significant single-day loss in eight months, plummeting by -2.5%. Notably, several pivotal technical support have been violated, hinting that we might be witnessing the onset of a medium-term downtrend in NASDAQ.

                  Interestingly, the strong US Q3 GDP figures released overnight did little to lift investor spirits. Paradoxically, these robust economic indicators are fueling concerns about Fed maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period, rather than providing reassurance to the markets.

                  On the technical front, NASDAQ has taken out both 38.2% retracement of 10088.82 to 14446.55 at 12781.89 and 55 W EMA (now at 12826.98). These developments lend notion to the hypothesis that the entire rally from 10088.82 has concluded. Additionally, the break of channel support suggests that the index may be entering a phase of downside acceleration. For the near term, outlook will stay bearish as long as 13170.39 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 11753.47.

                  In a broader context, rise from 10088.82 (2022 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 16212.22 (2021 high). In a less bearish scenario, the fall from 14446.55 could merely be a correction to rise from 10088.82. In this case, significant support might emerge around the 55 M EMA (now at 11704.04), close to the aforementioned fibonacci level, triggering a substantial bounce.

                  However, in a gloomier perspective, the decline from 14446.55 might represent the third leg of the corrective pattern from 16212.22. This would suggest a more significant and persistent decline, plummeting below 10088.82. While it’s premature to definitively conclude, market’s reaction around 11700 level should provide valuable insights into future trends.

                  Bundesbank: Economic activity could decline slightly in the current quarter

                    Germany’s Bundesbank noted in its monthly report that “economic output fell slightly” in Q2, referring to the -0.1% qoq GDP contraction. And, “economic activity could also decline slightly in the current quarter”. The downturn in industry “is not yet apparent” and this may also “gradually affect some service sectors.”

                    But President Jens Weidmann still noted that “domestic economy is still doing well”. And, “the weakness has so far been concentrated on industry and exports”. He added that important reasons for the slowdown are the “international trade conflicts and the Brexit ”

                    The reported also noted that falling demand abroad has increased the downturn. In particular, exports to the UK were weak in spring, due to original Brexit date of March. The large purchases from UK in winter months resulted in counter-movement in spring. Additionally, with exports “slumping sharply”, and “given the declining capacity utilization and subdued manufacturing outlook, companies are likely to hold back on investment in new equipment and facilities.”

                    Further, construction investment had also declined. Private consumption should have been only slightly above the level of the strong previous quarter. Only public consumption could have supported the economy significantly.

                    Eurozone GDP grew 12.7% qoq in Q3, well above expectations

                      Eurozone GDP grew 12.7% qoq in Q3, well above expectation of 9.0% yoy. That’s also more than enough to cover the -11.8% qoq contraction in Q2. Besides, it’s the sharpest increase on record since 1995.

                      EU GDP grew 12.1% qoq. Among the Member States, for which data are available for the third quarter 2020, France (+18.2%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Spain (+16.7%) and Italy (+16.1%). Lithuania (+3.7%), Cheeky (+6.2%) and Latvia (+6.6%) recorded the lowest increases. While a rebound was observed for all publishing countries compared to the second quarter, the year on year growth rates were still negative.

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone CPI was unchanged at -0.3% yoy in October, matched expectations CPI core was also unchanged at 0.2% yoy. Unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 8.3% in September, matched expectations.

                      New Zealand terms of trade dropped -0.7% in Q1 as coronavirus hit

                        New Zealand terms of trade index dropped -0.7% qoq in Q1, worse than expectation of 1.3% rise. Export volume rose 1.8% qoq while import volumes fell -3.9% qoq. Export prices dropped -0.2% qoq while import prices rose 0.5% qoq. Overall export values for goods rose 3.6% qoq to NZD 15.1B while import values dropped -1.9% qoq to NZD 15.1B.

                        “The fall in export prices coincided with the COVID-19 outbreak, which was declared a global pandemic in March 2020,” business prices delivery manager Geoff Wong said. “The COVID-19 outbreak affected demand in export markets and disrupted supply chains, such as sea and air freight.”

                        Also released, building permits dropped -6.5% mom in April, comparing with March’s -21.7% mom decline.

                        US initial jobless claims rose 10k to 227k, Q1 GDP finalized at 3.1% annualized

                          US initial jobless claims rose 10k to 227k in the week ending June 22, above expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.25k to 221.25k. Continuing claims rose 22k to 1.688m in the week ending June 15. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 6.5k to 1.687m.

                          Q1 GDP growth was finalized at 3.1% annualized, unrevised. .Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment were offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and inventory investment and an upward revision to imports.

                          ECB and SNB to stand pat today, some previews

                            ECB and SNB rate decisions are the major focuses for today. SNB is widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged at -0.75%. The central bank would continue to note that Swiss Franc is overvalued. Negative interest rate remains necessary, as well as the readiness to intervene.

                            Christine Lagarde will hold her first meeting as ECB President. New round of monetary easing was already announced back in September while forward guidance was firmly set too. There is no expectation on any policy change for today, and possible for the near future. Instead, focuses will be on new Eurosystem staff macro economic projections, as well as information regarding the upcoming strategic reviews.

                            Here are some suggested readings:

                            Japan’s PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.5, sector remains in contraction

                              Japan’s PMI Manufacturing for April was finalized at 49.5, marginally above March’s 49.2, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction in the sector. Jibun Bank noted that new order volumes displayed further signs of stabilization, while output charges experienced their strongest rise in five months. Additionally, input delivery times only lengthened slightly.

                              Usamah Bhatti, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented that the Japanese manufacturing sector remained in contraction territory at the start of Q2 2023. However, the rate of deterioration eased to the softest in the current six-month sequence, primarily due to the slowest reduction in new order inflows since July of last year.

                              Bhatti further observed that firms reported supply chains continued on the path to normalization, with the softest lengthening in delivery times in the current 39-month sequence. Inflationary pressures remained historically high, but manufacturers signaled that input prices rose at the softest pace since August 2021. To protect profit margins, firms increasingly passed higher cost burdens onto customers, resulting in charge inflation accelerating to a five-month high.

                              Full Japan PMI manufacturing release here.

                              Canada GDP grew 1.2% mom in Aug, still -5% below pre-pandemic level

                                Canada GDP rose 1.2% mom in August, above expectation of 0.9% mom. That’s the fourth consecutive month of increase. Yet, overall economic activity was still about -5% below February’s pre-pandemic level.

                                Goods-producing industries grew 0.5% mom while services-producing industries rose 1.5% mom. 15 of 20 industrial sectors posed increases while two were essentially unchanged.

                                Full release here.

                                German government to revise down growth forecasts to 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019

                                  Reuters reported, according to a document they obtained, German government slashed growth forecast for both 2018 and 2019 in the update to be released tomorrow. Growth is now projected to be at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019, down from prior projections of 2.3% and 2.1% respectively. For 2020, growth is expected to be unchanged at 1.8%. Weak global trade, lowered state consumption and softer auto sector are the causes for slower than expected growth.

                                  Inflation is projected to be at 1.9% in 2018 and rise further to 2.0% in 2019. The document also noted that “in view of the strong expansion of disposable income and moderate inflation, private consumption is likely to pick up noticeably.” House hold spending is expected to grow 1.6% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019. State consumption is projected to grow 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. State investment is project to rise 5.9% in 2018 and 5.2% in 2019.

                                  According to IMF’s latest forecasts released earlier this week, German growth is projected at 1.9% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019, revised down from April forecasts of 2.5% and 2.0% respectively.

                                  Fed Bostic penciled in only six hikes this year

                                    Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said, “I penciled in six rate hikes for 2022 and two more for 2023,”

                                    “I recognize that I am toward the bottom of the distribution relative to my colleagues, but the elevated levels of uncertainty are front forward in my mind and have tempered my confidence that an extremely aggressive rate path is appropriate today,” he added.

                                    “The risks go both ways,” Bostic said. “Should demand falter in the face of economic uncertainty or removal of monetary policy accommodation, then the appropriate path may be shallower than I currently project. But there are other developments, such as shifts in supply strategies, that could mean higher costs and thus motivate a steeper policy path than I expect.”

                                    Fed Harker: Shelter inflation and food particularly alarming

                                      Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said in an article, “inflation is far too high across most goods and services in our economy. But I find shelter inflation, along with food inflation, particularly alarming…. We must do everything we can to get shelter inflation under control.”

                                      “Monetary policy has a role to play here, and the Federal Reserve is working to stabilize inflation and put the economy on a firmer footing for the long haul,” he said. “But getting shelter inflation under control will require action not just by the Fed, but also by federal, state, and local governments.”

                                      Full article here.

                                      Fed Bowman: Economy is still a long way from Fed’s goals

                                        Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warned in a speech that “financial pressures on many small businesses remain acute”. She’s concerned that “a growing number of small businesses have already been closed permanently or are on the verge of failure”.

                                        While the pandemic restrictions may have been helpful, she said, “they appear to have disproportionately impeded small firms’ ability to maintain their operations and revenue sources, leading to substantial cash-flow pressures.” The restrictions “came at a very high economic cost,” she added.

                                        “My FOMC colleagues and I expect to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until employment and inflation achieve levels consistent with our maximum employment and inflation goals,” she concluded. “At this point, the economy is still a long way from those goals. We are making progress, but I think it will take some time for us to get there.”

                                        Full speech here.

                                        Eurozone industrial production rises 0.8% mom in Feb, EU up 0.7% mom

                                          Eurozone industrial production rose 0.8% mom in February, matched expectations. Production increased by 0.5% for intermediate goods, 1.2% for capital goods, and 1.4% for durable consumer goods. On the other hand, production by -3.0% for energy, and -0.9% for non-durable consumer goods.

                                          EU industrial production rose 0.7% mom. The highest monthly increases were recorded in Ireland (+3.8%), Hungary (+3.5%) and Slovenia (+3.3%). The largest decreases were observed in Croatia (-4.6%), Lithuania (-3.0%) and Belgium (-2.7%).

                                          Full Eurozone industrial production release here.