New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to -36.7, a temporary reprieve

    New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rose from -47.8 to -36.7 in September. Own Activity Outlook rose from -4.0 to -1.8. investment intentions rose from -2.0 to 1.8. Employment intentions rose from 3.4 to 5.9. Pricing intentions rose from 68.0 to 70.1. Cost expectations dropped from 90.9 to 89.8. inflation expectations eased from 6.13 % to 5.98%.

    ANZ said: “It’s fair to say that demand has not yet rolled over as feared as the Reserve Bank has raised interest rates. But insofar as the RBNZ can just keep on going until they see the cooling in demand they need to tame inflation, that’s likely to be a temporary reprieve, if not an outright double-edged sword for firms that have considerable debt.”

    “Inflation pressures are easing, but painfully slowly. It’s not enough for the RBNZ to see inflation pressures top out and ever so gradually fall. They will be concerned about the chance that wage and price-setting behaviour will change in structural ways that make bringing inflation down more difficult. We expect that the RBNZ will need to deliver a policy rate closer to 5% than 4% to get on top of inflation pressures.”

    Full release here.

    Australia monthly CPI slowed to 6.8% yoy in Aug on fuel costs

      In its first monthly release, Australia CPI rose 6.8% yoy in June, accelerated to 7.0% yoy in July, and slowed to 6.8% yoy in August

      Monthly CPI excluding fruit, vegetables and fuel rose 5.5% yoy in June, accelerated to 6.1% yoy in July, then 6.2% yoy in August.

      David Gruen, Australian Statistician, said: ” The slight fall in the annual inflation rate from July to August was mainly due to a decrease in prices for Automotive fuel. This saw the annual movement for Automotive fuel fall from 43.3 per cent in June to 15.0 per cent in August.”

      Full release here.

      Fed Evans: Current interest rate not nearly restrictive enough

        Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said while interest at 3-3.25% is restrictive, ” with inflation as high as it is, and getting inflation under control being job one, it’s not nearly restrictive enough.”

        “The risks continue to be high about more persistent inflation, and we just really need to get inflation in check,” Evans said.

        Evans added that he expects interest rate to reach top by March.

        Fed Bostic wants rate at 4.25% to 4.5% by year end

          Atlanta President Fed Raphael Bostic said yesterday, “the lack of progress thus far has me thinking much more now that we have to get to a moderately restrictive stance. And for me, that is in the 4.25% to 4.5% range for our policy. My preference is that we get there by year end.”

          Bostic said that his expects another 75bps rate hike in November, followed by 50bps in December. But he added that “I don’t think it’ll be appropriate for us to continue to tighten and increase your rates until inflation gets to 2%. That will be guaranteeing that we’ve gone too far and we’ll take the economy into a negative space.”

          “I’m still in the place of not really thinking that a recession is a foregone conclusion as we battle this,” he said. “So we can have some weakening, but I don’t think it, at this point, will take us to the historical recessionary experience.”

           

          US goods exports dropped -0.9% mom in Aug, imports dropped -1.7% mom

            US goods exports dropped -0.9% mom to USD 179.8B in August. Goods imports dropped -1.7% mom to USD 267.1B. Trade deficit came in at US D-87.3B, comparing with July’s USD -90.2B.

            Wholesale inventories rose 1.3% mom to USD 913.1B. Retail sales rose 1.4% mom to USD 741B.0B.

            Full release here.

            ECB Holzmann: 50 minimum, 75 a good guess, 100 too fast, for Oct meeting

              ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said “50 may be the minimum” rate hike at next meeting in October. He added, “could it be 100? It could but I don’t see the necessity now to go as fast. I think 75 would be a good guess.”

              Holzmann also noted that ECB is still “some way” from neutral interest rate. He said lifting deposit rate from current 0.75% to 2.50% would definitely take it beyond neutral.

              Regarding quantitative tightening, he said it’s part of the normalization process, and will be discussed at a non-monetary-policy meeting next week in Cyprus.

              BoE announces gilt operation to restore orderly market conditions

                BoE announced today to carry out temporary purchases of long-dated UK government bonds, to “restore orderly market conditions”. It warned that the significant repricing of UK and global financial assets “has become more significant in the past day”, particularly affecting long-dated government debt. Continuing or worsening dysfunction would be a “material risk” to financial stability.

                The purchases will be carried out on “whatever scale is necessary” to effect this outcome. However, they will be “strictly time limited” with auctions taking place from today until October 14.

                BoE also reiterated that a full assessment of the government’s mini budget will be done at its “next scheduled meeting”. BoE “will not hesitate to change interest rates by as much as needed to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in line with its remit.”

                Full statement here.

                GBP/USD was lifted briefly after the announcement, and turned south quickly.

                ECB Lagarde: First destination is neutral rate

                  ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a conference today, “we have to return inflation to 2% in the medium term, and we will do what we have to do, which is to continue hiking interest rates in the next several meetings.”

                  “Our primary goal is not to create a recession. Our primary objective is price stability and we have to deliver on that. If we were not delivering, it would hurt the economy far more,” she said, adding that the “first destination” of rate hikes will be to reach neutral rate.

                  Separately, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir indicated that ECB may need to hike again by 75bps next month as inflation remains unacceptably high.

                  Germany Gfk Consumer Sentiment dropped to -42.5, new record low

                    Germany Gfk Consumer Sentiment for October dropped from -36.5 to -42.5, below expectation of -38.8. That’s also a new record low. In September, economic expectations dropped from -47.6 to -21.9, lowest since 2009. Income expectations dropped from -45.3 to -67.7, a record low since 1991. Propensity to buy dropped from -15.7 to -19.5, lowest since 2008.

                    “The current very high inflation rates of almost eight percent are leading to large real income losses among consumers and thus to significantly reduced purchasing power,” explains Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert.

                    “Many households are currently forced to spend significantly more money on energy or to set money aside for significantly higher heating bills. Accordingly, they need to cut back on other expenses, such as new purchases. This is sending consumer sentiment plummeting to a new record low.”

                    Full release here.

                    Australia retail sales rose 0.6% mom in Aug

                      Australia retail sales turnover rose 0.6% mom to AUD 34.88B in August, slightly above expectation of 0.5% mom. That’s the eighth consecutive monthly increase.

                      Ben Dorber, head of retail statistics at the ABS, said: “This month’s rise was driven by the combined increase in food related industries, with cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services up 1.3 per cent and food retailing up 1.1 per cent.”

                      “While households continue to spend, non-food industry results were mixed and only contributed a small amount to the total rise in retail turnover.”

                      Full release here.

                      UK BRC shop price reported another record increase

                        UK BRC shop price index accelerated from 5.1% yoy to 5.7% yoy in August, another record increase since the index began in 2005. Food inflation surged from 9.3% yoy to 10.6% yoy. Non-food inflation also rose from 2.9% yoy to 3.3% yoy.

                        Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium: “Retailers are battling huge cost pressures from the weak pound, rising energy bills and global commodity prices, high transport costs, a tight labour market and the cumulative burden of government-imposed costs.”

                        Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight, NielsenIQ: “NielsenIQ data shows that 76% of consumers are saying they expect to be moderately or severely affected by the cost-of-living crisis over the next 3 months, up from 57% in the summer. ”

                        Full release here.

                        Fed Harker: Shelter inflation and food particularly alarming

                          Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said in an article, “inflation is far too high across most goods and services in our economy. But I find shelter inflation, along with food inflation, particularly alarming…. We must do everything we can to get shelter inflation under control.”

                          “Monetary policy has a role to play here, and the Federal Reserve is working to stabilize inflation and put the economy on a firmer footing for the long haul,” he said. “But getting shelter inflation under control will require action not just by the Fed, but also by federal, state, and local governments.”

                          Full article here.

                          Fed Kashkari: We are moving at an appropriately aggressive pace

                            Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said yesterday, “We are moving very aggressively. There’s a lot of tightening in the pipeline. We are committed to restoring price stability but we also recognize given these lags there is a risk of overdoing it.”

                            “We are committed to restoring price stability, but we also recognize, given these lags, there is the risk of overdoing it on the front end, and so I think we are moving at an appropriately aggressive pace,” he said.

                            “The economy is sending us a lot of mixed signals right now,” Kashkari said. “We need to keep tightening policy until we see some compelling evidence that core inflation is actually having peaked and is on its way down,”

                            “And then I think we need to sit there and we need to pause and wait and let the tightening work its way through the economy to see at that point, have we done enough?”

                            US consumer confidence rose to 108.0, second month of improvement

                              US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose from 103.2 to 108.0 in September, above expectation of 104.5. Present Situation index rose from 145.3 to 149.6. Expectations Index also rose from 75.8 to 90.3.

                              “Consumer confidence improved in September for the second consecutive month supported in particular by jobs, wages, and declining gas prices,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

                              “The Present Situation Index rose again, after declining from April through July. The Expectations Index also improved from summer lows, but recession risks nonetheless persist. Concerns about inflation dissipated further in September—prompted largely by declining prices at the gas pump—and are now at their lowest level since the start of the year.”

                              Full release here.

                              BoE Pill: Recent significant fiscal news require a significant monetary policy response

                                BoE chief economist Huw Pill said at a conference, “We have all seen recent significant fiscal news in the past few days. That has had significant market consequences as well as significant implications for the macro outlook…

                                “It’s hard not to draw the conclusion that all this will require a significant monetary policy response,” he added.

                                US durable goods orders dropped -0.2% mom in Aug, ex-transport orders up 0.2% mom

                                  US durable goods orders dropped -0.2% mom to USD 272.7B in August, slightly worse than expectation of -0.1% mom. Ex-transport orders rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-defend orders dropped sharply by-0.9% mom. Transportation equipment dropped -1.1% mom to USD 92.0B.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Fed Evans agrees to get to the peak funds rate by March

                                    Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans told CNBC, “There are lags in monetary policy and we have moved expeditiously. We have done three 75 basis point increases in a row and there is a talk of more to get to that 4.25% to 4.5% by the end of the year, you’re not leaving much time to sort of look at each monthly release. ”

                                    “I still believe that our consensus, the median forecasts, are to get to the peak funds rate by March — assuming there are no further adverse shocks. And if things get better, we could perhaps do less, but I think we are headed for that peak funds rate,” Evans said.

                                    “That offers a path for employment, you know, stabilizing at something that still is not a recession, but there could be shocks, there could be other difficulties,” he added.

                                    World Bank cut China growth forecasts to 2.8% in 2022

                                      For 2022, the World Bank downgraded China’s growth forecasts sharply from 5.0% (April’s) to just 2.8%. On the other hand, ASEAN-5 growth forecasts was upgraded from 4.9% to 5.4%. East Asia & Pacific (excluding China) growth was upgraded from 4.8% to 5.3%. However, East Asia & Pacific as a whole was down graded from 5.0% to 3.2%,

                                      The World Bank said in the release: “Growth in much of East Asia and the Pacific has been driven by recovery in domestic demand, enabled by a relaxation of COVID-related restrictions, and growth in exports. China, which constitutes around 86% of the region’s output, uses targeted public health measures to contain outbreaks of the virus, inhibiting economic activity.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Selloff in Yuan is still in force, with USD/CNH approaching 2020 high at 7.1961. There is so far no clear support for the Yuan at 7 psychological level. Break of 7.1961 will mark the highest level for the pair, lowest for offshore Yuan, since 2008. Technically, USD/CNH might top only after hitting 100% projection of 6.3057 to 6.8372 from 6.7159 at 7.2474.

                                      RBNZ Orr said tightening cycle very mature, AUD/NZD topping soon?

                                        RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr today, “We believe we still have some work to do, but the good news is because we’ve done so much already, the tightening cycle is very mature, it’s well advanced.”

                                        There’s s “a little bit more to do before we can drop to our normal happy place, which is to watch, worry and wait for signs of inflation up or down,” he said.

                                        AUD/NZD’s rally picks up some momentum recently on expectations that RBA is catching up with RBNZ on tightening. However, the cross is now pressing medium term channel resistance, and in proximity to 61.8% projection of 1.0314 to 1.1168 from 1.0987 at 1.1515. Overbought condition could finally limit upside. Break of 1.1303 will argue that it has turned into a corrective phase.

                                        Nevertheless, firm break of 1.1515 could prompt further upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.1841.

                                        SNB Maechler: More signs that price increases are spreading

                                          SNB board member Andrea Maechler said yesterday, “We have tightened monetary policy and raised interest rates to send a clear signal that we will do everything to bring down inflation over time.”

                                          “There are ever more signs that price increases are spreading to goods and services which have not been affected so far,” she said. “We are acting to make sure that inflation does not become entrenched.”

                                          On the question of further rate hike, she said, “I never speak of interest rate expectations. I can only say what the market expects, and it expects the SNB and other central banks to further increase their rates.”