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New Zealand CPI up 2.2% qoq in Q3, annual rate at 7.7% yoy

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    ActionForex.com
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    New Zealand CPI rose 2.2% qoq in Q3, well above expectation of 1.6% qoq. Annual inflation slowed from 7.3% yoy to 7.2% yoy, but beat expectation of 6.6% yoy.

    The quarterly rise in prices was mainly influenced by the food group and the housing and household utilities group. Vegetable prices rose 24% during the quarter, largest since the the series began in 1999.

    The main driver for annual inflation was housing and household utilities due to rising prices for construction, rentals for housing, and local authority rates.

    Full release here.

    Japan Suzuki: We cannot tolerate excessive currency moves driven by speculators

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      ActionForex.com
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      Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters today, “We cannot tolerate excessive currency moves driven by speculators. We are closely watching currency moves with a sense of urgency.”

      Suzuki later told the parliament that the government is ready to take actions “decisively” and “we have intervened in the currency markets (last month)”.

      “Generally speaking, there are times when we intervene by making announcements and some other times when we do without it,” Suzuki said.

      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament, “Recent sharp yen fall, coupled with raw material price rise, driving up Japan’s prices”. ”Consumer inflation likely to accelerate toward year-end before sliding below 2% next fiscal year,” he added.

      US Empire State manufacturing dropped to -9.1 in Oct

        By
        ActionForex.com
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        US Empire State Manufacturing index dropped sharply from 1.5 to -9.1 in October. 23% of respondents reported that conditions had improved while 32% said worsened. After falling significantly over the prior three months, the prices paid index rose nine points to 48.6. The prices received index held steady at 22.9.

        Index for future conditions dropped from 8.2 to -1.8. indicating that firms do not expect conditions to improve over the next six months.

        Full release here.

        NZ BNZ services dropped to 55.8 in Sep

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          ActionForex.com
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          New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index dropped from 58.6 to 55.8 in September. Looking at some details, activity/sales dropped from 67.5 to 59.2. Employment ticked down from 50.7 to 50.5. New orders/business dropped from 66.6 to 62.9. Stocks/inventories dropped from 59.6 to 54.9. Supplier deliveries was unchanged at 49.7.

          BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that “the composite PCI held together at 54.4 in free-weighted terms, while the GDP weighted composite came in at 55.4, from 58.2 in August. These marry with our view that Q3 GDP increased about 1.0%”.

          Full release here.

          Japan Suzuki: Will take decisive action on excessive volatility

            By
            ActionForex.com
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            There is no clear sign of intervention by Japan so far, as USD/JPY is trading in tight range close to 32-yr high. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki just said, “if we see excessive volatility caused by speculative moves, we will take decisive action. There is no change in this view at all.”

            Separately, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in a parliamentary session, Japan’s economy is in the midst of recovery from COVID-19. Higher commodity prices, on the back of the situation in Ukraine, have been leading to an outflow of income from Japan to overseas, adding downward pressure on the economy.”

            “For now, we think it appropriate to continue with monetary easing because it’s necessary to support the economy and achieve our inflation target in a sustainable and stable fashion accompanied by wage growth,” he added.

            BoE Bailey: Inflationary pressures will require a stronger response

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              ActionForex.com
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              BoE Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that a larger rate hike could be delivered at the upcoming meeting in November. He said, “we will not hesitate to raise interest rates to meet the inflation target… And, as things stand today, my best guess is that inflationary pressures will require a stronger response than we perhaps thought in August.”

              Regarding new Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, he said, “I can tell you that there was a very clear and immediate meeting of minds between us about the importance of fiscal sustainability and the importance of taking measures to do that.”

              US retail sales growth flat in Sep, ex-auto sales up 0.1% mom

                By
                ActionForex.com
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                US retail sales growth was flat at 0.0% mom in September, at USD 684.0B. Ex-auto sales rose 0.1% mom, better than expectation of -0.1% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.1% mom. Ex-auto and gasoline sales rose 0.3% mom.

                Total sales for July through September period were up 9.2% from the same period a year ago.

                Full release here.

                ECB Lagarde: Valuations vulnerable to a range of possible negative surprises

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                  ActionForex.com
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                  ECB President Christine Lagarde said the financial markets may be overly optimistic about the economic outlook. “This makes valuations vulnerable to a range of possible negative surprises, whether from growth, inflation, monetary policy or corporate profitability,” she said.

                  Vice President Luis de Guindos said, “what we considered as our downside scenario in September, is coming closer to the baseline scenario… I think we are going to face a very difficult combination of low economic growth, including the possibility of a technical recession, and high inflation,”

                  Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle said, “We won’t stop at the neutral rate, we need to keep powering through… I’m of the opinion that we will have to go above the neutral level in order to calm inflation pressures, which are currently in the pipeline.

                  Eurozone exports rose 24.0% yoy in Aug, imports rose 53.6% yoy

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
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                    Eurozone exports of goods rose 24.0% yoy to EUR 231.1B in August. Imports rose 53.6% yoy to EUR 282.1B. Trade deficit came in at EUR -50.9B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 34.8% yoy to EUR 210.5B.

                    In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 3.5% mom to EUR 245.5B. Imports rose 5.5% mom to EUR 292.8B. Trade deficit widened from EUR -40.5B to EUR -47.3B, much larger than expectation of EUR -40.0B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose from EUR 230.9B to EUR 239.2B.

                    Full release here.

                    NZ BNZ manufacturing dropped to 52.0, positive trend with ongoing volatility

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
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                      New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped back from 54.8 to 52.0 in September, comparing to July’s 53.5 and June’s 50.2. Looking at some details, production dropped from 54.5 to 52.0. Employment dropped from 53.6 to 51.9. New orders tumbled sharply from 59.7 to 48.4. Finished stocks rose from 52.0 to 55.0. Deliveries edged down from 55.0 to 54.5.

                      BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel stated “the overall trend remains positive, but with ongoing volatility around it. On the positive side, the PMI’s 3-month moving average has continued to edge higher this month but, not so good, the 52.0 monthly reading is now back below the PMI’s longer-term norm”.

                      Full release here.

                      Japan didn’t confirm intervention after unusually USD/JPY volatility

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        There was some unusual volatility in USD/JPY overnight at it approached 1998 high at 147.68. The pair was knocked down but there was no sustained selling. Japan Ministry of Finance declined to confirm whether that was caused by intervention.

                        Meanwhile, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki just reiterated that government’s readiness to take “appropriate action” against “excessive volatility” in the markets. He said, “we cannot tolerate excessive volatility driven by speculative moves. We’re watching market developments with a strong sense of urgency.”

                        Separately, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintained that “raising rates now is inappropriate in light of Japan’s economic, price conditions.” He added that “pace of Japan’s economic recovery still slow so BoJ must continue supporting economy.”

                        No reversal yet after DOW’s 1500 historic U-turn

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          US stocks staged a historic U-turn overnight, after initial post-CPI selloff. DOW had a jaw-dropping swing of more than 1500 pts, falling to as low as 28660.94, then rebounded to close at 30038.72, after hitting intraday high at 30168.54. There is no convincing explanation to the reversal. Some said investors saw the set of data as a “last gasp” for rising inflation. But after all, Fed is set to continue with aggressive tightening and there is no clear sign on where interest rate would really peak.

                          Anyways, immediate focus is now on 30454.46 resistance in DOW. Firm break there will complete a double bottom pattern, and bring stronger rebound through 55 day EMA (now at 30914.85) in the near term. Rejection by 30454.46 should set the stage for resuming the down trend through 28660.94 later in the month.

                          In either case, there is no clear sign of trend reversal for now, and the whole pattern from 36965.83 should still extend to 100% projection of 36965.83 to 29653.29 from 34281.36 at 26982.00 before completion.

                          US initial jobless claims rose to 228k, slightly above expectations

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            US initial jobless claims rose 9k to 228k in the week ending October 8, slightly above expectation of 225k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 5k to 212k.

                            Continuing claims rose 3k to 1368k in the week ending October 1. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -8k to 1364k.

                            Full release here.

                            US CPI slowed to 8.2% yoy in Sep, but core CPI rose to 6.6% yoy

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              US CPI rose 0.4% mom in September, above expectation of 0.2% mom. Core CPI (all item less food and energy) rose 0.6% mom, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Energy index dropped -2.1% mom, with gasoline down 4.9%. Food index rose 0.8% mom.

                              For the 12 months ending September, CPI slowed from 8.3% yoy to 8.2% yoy, above expectation of 8.1% yoy. Core CPI, on the other hand, accelerated from 6.3% yoy to 6.6% yoy, above expectation of 6.5% yoy. Energy index slowed from 23.8% yoy to 19.8% yoy. Food index was up 11.2% yoy.

                              Full release here.

                              Fed Bowman: Sizable hike on the table if inflation not moving down

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said a speech, “if we do not see signs that inflation is moving down, my view continues to be that sizable increases in the target range for the federal funds rate should remain on the table.”

                                Nevertheless, “if inflation starts to decline, I believe a slower pace of rate increases would be appropriate.” Even so, “to bring inflation down in a consistent and lasting way, the federal funds rate will need to move up to a restrictive level and remain there for some time.”

                                “However, it is not yet clear how high we will need to raise the federal funds rate and how much time will pass before we begin to see inflation moving back down in a consistent and lasting way,” she added.

                                Full speech here.

                                FOMC minutes: Many emphasized cost of doing too little

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  In the minutes of September 20-21 FOMC meeting, it’s noted that with “broad-based and unacceptably high level of inflation” and the “upside risks”, participants remarked that “purposefully moving to a restrictive policy stance in the near term was consistent with risk-management considerations”.

                                  Further than that, “many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action.”

                                  Also, “several participants underlined the need to maintain a restrictive stance for as long as necessary”.

                                  Full minutes here.

                                  ECB Knot: Inflation problem won’t go away with a little of slowdown in economy

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    ECB Governing Council member Klass Knot said, “we need at least two more significant hikes before we enter the range of plausible estimates for neutral… That’ll take us into next year.”

                                    “This problem will not go away with a little of slowdown in the economy — it will require continued effort from our side, and the Council is unanimous on that,” he said.

                                    “The way the Fed is dealing with QT — that’s clearly also going to be an example for us, they managed to move it into the background very quickly,” Knot said. “A process like QT — it should be predictable, it should be gradual, it should be even a little bit boring.”

                                    BoJ Kuroda: Yen depreciation may have good impact on economy, but speculation is bad

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “yen depreciation may have a good impact on macro-economy as a whole, but there are some sectors which are suffering from weak yen.” He added that “we have to carefully watch, and analyze the impact of currency movements on the economy.”

                                      Kuroda also qualified that “if currency movement is so fast and uni-direction, probably caused by speculation, that would be bad for the economy.”

                                      Meanwhile, he reiterated, “we will continue our monetary easing to achieve the 2% inflation target in a stable and sustainable manner.”

                                      BoE Pill: A significant monetary policy response required in Nov

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said in a speech, “Given the uncertain world and volatile markets we face, November can seem a long time away. At present, I am still inclined to believe that a significant monetary policy response will be required to the significant macro and market news of the past few weeks.”

                                        “But I will see when we get to November how events have evolved in the meantime. As always, my policy choices will be driven by the data and guided by pursuit of the inflation target,” he added.

                                        Full speech here.

                                        UK NIESR: Energy price guarantees to drive GDP growth higher in Q4

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          NIESR said the -0.3% contraction in UK GDP in August “possibly signalling the beginning of an economic recession”. Given that September PMI pointed to further decrease in the manufacturing sector, it’s likely to continue to drag on the economy in Q3.

                                          However, it expects “the energy price guarantees for households and firms announced in September’s fiscal event to drive GDP growth higher in the fourth quarter. The extent to which the measures in the mini-budget will counter the dampening effects of plummeting confidence and increased interest rates will become clearer over the coming months.”

                                          Full release here.

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