Sterling shrugs stellar UK retail sales, awaits BoE

    UK retail sales came in stronger than expected in November. But the pound paid little attention to the data, as BoE rate decision looms. Also, Sterling is overwhelmed by strength of Euro and Swiss Franc, and selloff in Dollar.

    • Retail sales including auto and fuel rose 1.4% mom, 3.6% yoy versus expectation of 0.3% mom, 1.9% yoy.
    • Retail sales excluding auto and fuel rose 1.2% mom, 3.8% yoy versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 2.3% yoy.

    ONS noted that
    “retailers reported strong growth on the month due to Black Friday promotions in November, which continues the shifting pattern in consumer spending to sales occurring earlier in the year”.

    Full release here.

    Suggested readings on BoE:

    Japan PM Abe to raise retirement age beyond 65

      Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in a Nikkei Asian Review interview that while, BoJ hasn’t reached the 2% inflation target yet, Japan is “no longer in deflation”. And Abe emphasized “what we are really focused on is employment.” He outlined a plan to overhaul the social security system for the new three years.

      Abe intend to raise retirement age beyond 65. And he said “more labor participation would boost economic growth, raise tax revenue and generate more social security premium receipts.” The first year of his next three year term will focus on labor issues. Pension and medical care system will be tackled in the following two years.

      Additionally, Abe pledged to ease the impact of the planned sales take hikes, from 8% to 10% with “bold countermeasures”.

      He also played down the threats of US trade policy and said “the U.S. and Japan share a broader goal of expanding bilateral trade and investment for the benefit of both countries and achieving a free and open Indo-Pacific based on fair trade.”

      Abe will compete with former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba in a ruling party leadership contest on September 20.

      Fed forecasts rate cut in 2020, revised down inflation projections

        The most important part of Fed’s new projection is that policymakers are expecting possibly one 25bps rate cut in 2020, instead of one 25bps rate hike. Median federal funds rates is at 2.1% by the end of 2020, revised down from 2.6%. Nevertheless, for this year, median federal funds rates forecast is unchanged at 2.4%. Fed indeed expect interest rate to go back to 2.4% in 2021.

        Inflation appears to be main driver behind the forecasts. Core PCE inflation projections in 2019 and 2020 are both revised down. Though, it should b noted that GDP growth for 2020 was revised up, likely due to the rate cut. Unemployment rate forecasts are revised down for whole horizon.

        Overall, the economic projections are in-line with Fed’s statement that “will act as appropriate” to economic data. But the so called “insurance” rate cut may not come as early as some expected.

        Here are some details.

        GDP growth:

        • 2019 at 2.1%, unchanged
        • 2020 at 2.0%, revised up from 1.9%.
        • 2021 at 1.7%, unchanged.

        Unemployment rate:

        • 2019 at 3.6%, revised down from 3.7%.
        • 2020 at 3.7%, revised down from 3.8%.
        • 2021 at 3.8%, revised down from 3.9%.

        Core PCE inflation:

        • 2019 at 1.8%, revised down from 2.0%.
        • 2020 at 1.9%, revised down from 2.0%.
        • 2021 at 2.0%, unchanged.

        Federal funds rate:

        • 2019 at 2.4%, unchanged.
        • 2020 at 2.1%, revised down from 2.1%.
        • 2021 at 2.4%, revised down from 2.6%.
        • Longer range rate at 2.5%, revised down from 2.8%.

        RBA projections -6% GDP contraction in 2020, unemployment rate to peak at 10% in June

          In the statement of monetary policy, “the Board will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band”. Additionally, “the Board is committed to do what it can to support jobs, incomes and businesses during this difficult period and to make sure that Australia is well placed for the expected recovery.”

          In the latest projections, GDP could contract by as much as -6.00% in the year ended December 2020, then recovered by 6.00% in the year-ended December 2021. Unemployment rate would surge to 10% in June 2020, then gradually drop back to 6.50% in two year’s time, without reaching the pre-crisis level of 5.20%.

          Path of headline inflation projected is rather rocky. CPI would tumble to -1.00% in June 2020, then surge to 2.75% by June 2021, then drop back to 1.25-1.50% before June 2022. Trimmed mean inflation would remain steady, though, at between 1.25-1.50% throughout projection horizon, without hitting the 2% target.

          Full statement here.

          UK Parliament seized control over Brexit, to vote on alternatives on Wednesday

            The UK Parliament seized control over Brexit from the government after passing a cross-party amendment by 329 to 302 late Monday. The amendment was tabled by former Tory minister Oliver Letwin involving Labour’s Hilary Benn. It gives MPs a series of votes on alternatives to Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal, including a second referendum, staying the the customs union, no-deal and even revoking article 50.

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            Three Conservative ministers resigned from the government to support the amendment, including Foreign Affairs Minister Alistair Burt, Health Minister Steve Brine and Business Minister Richard Harrington. A total of 29 Conservatives rebelled to vote for the amendment.

            The Brexit department issued a quick email statement after the vote. It criticized that the results “upends the balance between our democratic institutions and sets a dangerous, unpredictable precedent for the future.” And it warned that “while it is now up to parliament to set out next steps in respect of this amendment, the government will continue to call for realism – any options considered must be deliverable in negotiations with the EU.

            Earlier in the day before the vote, May declined to commit to abide by the outcome of the indicative votes. She said: “No government could give a blank cheque to commit to an outcome without knowing what it is. So I cannot commit the government to delivering the outcome of any votes held by this house. But I do commit to engaging constructively with this process.”

            Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.8% in Jan, core at 3.3%

              Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.8% yoy in January, down from December’s 2.9% yoy. Core CPI was finalized at 3.3% yoy, down from prior month’s 3.4% yoy. The highest contribution to came from services (+1.73 percentage points, pp), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+1.13 pp), non-energy industrial goods (+0.53 pp) and energy (-0.62 pp).

              EU CPI was finalized at 3.1% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Denmark, Italy (both 0.9%), Latvia, Lithuania and Finland (all 1.1%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (7.3%), Estonia (5.0%) and Croatia (4.8%). Compared with December, annual inflation fell in fifteen Member States, remained stable in one and rose in eleven.

              Full Eurozone CPI release here.

              Eurozone PMI Composite finalized at 57.1, strong growth in Q2, even more impressive in Q3

                Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 55.2 in My, up from April’s 50.0. PMI Composite was finalized at 57.1, up from April’s 53.8. Looking at some member states Ireland PMI Composite rose to record high of 63.5. Spain rose to 174-month high at 59.2. France rose to 10-month high at 57.0. Germany rose to 2-month high at 56.2. Italy rose to 39-month high at 55.7.

                Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “The eurozone’s vast service sector sprang back into life in May, commencing a solid recovery that looks likely to be sustained throughout the summer… The service sector revival accompanies a booming manufacturing sector, meaning GDP should rise strongly in the second quarter. With a survey record build-up of work-in-hand to be followed by the further loosening of covid restrictions in the coming months, growth is likely to be even more impressive in the third quarter.”

                Full release here.

                China MOFCOM: Candid, effective, constructive and deep exchange on major trade and economic issues with US

                  Regarding the two-day face-to-face US-China trade talks in Shanghai, Chinese Ministry of Commerce said “both sides, according to the consensus reached by the two leaders in Osaka, had a candid, highly effective, constructive and deep exchange on major trade and economic issues of mutual interest”.

                  The Ministry also noted in the statement that “the two sides also discussed that China will increase its procurement of US agricultural products according to domestic needs and the US will create favorable conditions for procurement.”

                  On the Chinese side, Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan and Governor of the People’s Bank of China Yi Gang, participated with involvements from Central Finance Office, Finance Ministry, Foreign Affairs Ministry, Industry and Information Technology Ministry, Central Agricultural Office, Ministry of Agriculture, etc.

                  Next high-level trade meeting will be held in the US in September.

                  South Korean Trade Ministry warns US-China trade dispute likely to be prolonged and proliferated

                    In a policy news release, the South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy warned that the US-China trade dispute is likely to be “prolonged and proliferated”. And it urged private sector to seek analysis from the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Industry (KIEP) on the effects on imports and exports of each industry.

                    The Ministry also warned that “China’s home appliances, computers and telecommunication equipment are included in the additional tariffs, which suggests that exports of intermediate goods to China will decrease .” Meanwhile, the government would prepare a scenario for developing trade disputes with the US and prepare counter measures accordingly.

                    The issue regarding US 232 auto tariffs was discussed at a meeting with the motor industry representatives on July 10. Follow up actions including attending the US hearing by the government and the industry. In addition, delegation of representatives from the Ministry of Industry , Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Information and Communication , automobile industry association, Hyundai Motor , and trade association representatives, is scheduled to meet with US officials, legislators and automobile organizations.

                    Full statement here.

                    German Altmaier open to drop subsides on Airbus, if US does so with Boeing

                      German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier is set to meet US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to discussion resolution to the Boeing-Airbus dispute. He would be open to eliminating all government subsidies to Airbus, on condition that US would do the same to Boeing.

                      He said, “I could perfectly go along with … we will no longer provide any subsidies on both sides. Then it is just competition and nothing else.” He added, “it is in the interest of both sides to avoid these tit-for-tit tariffs”, referring to the tariffs between US and EU on the issue.

                      Altmaier also had a “productive and constructive” meeting with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. He noted that “We are in the middle of intensive discussions. For me, the Americans remain partners and friends despite our disagreements.”

                      ECB accounts: Main risk is tightening monetary policy too late

                        In the accounts of February ECB meeting, it was argued that monetary policy in the current environment was to “ensure that inflation expectations remained firmly anchored ” and to “avoid the risk of the prevailing high inflation becoming entrenched.”

                        “Caution was expressed about basing the Governing Council’s assessment on wage data which were only available with a lag.  In this environment, the main risk was no longer of tightening monetary policy too early but too late,” the accounts noted.

                        It’s also argued that “an earlier monetary policy normalisation would reduce the risk of abrupt tightening later on, which could potentially be associated with high economic and social costs.”

                        “In the light of the increased uncertainty and the heightened upside risks to the inflation outlook, the general view prevailed that the Governing Council should convey its increased alertness and should monitor incoming information carefully, in particular regarding second-round effects.”

                        Full accounts here.

                        UK PMI composite dropped to 53.9, but BoE has more work to do

                          UK PMI Manufacturing dropped from 47.8 to 46.9 in May, a 5-month low. PMI Services dropped from 55.9 to 55.1. PMI Composite dropped from 54.9 to 53.9.

                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                          “The UK economy enjoyed another month of strong growth in May, with the expansion continuing to be driven by surging post-pandemic demand in the service sector, notably from consumers and for financial services, with hospitality activities buoyed further by the Coronation. The surveys are consistent with GDP rising 0.4% in the second quarter after a 0.1% rise in the first quarter…

                          “The UK is therefore seeing a tale of two economies, with the divergence between manufacturing and services posing difficulties for policymakers. However, it’s the far larger service sector that will typically dictate policy, meaning these survey results are nothing but hawkish in suggesting the Bank of England has more work to do to quash stubbornly high inflationary pressures in the services economy.”

                          Full UK PMI release here.

                          New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing rose to 57.5, encouraging with new orders leading the way

                            New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing jumped a notable 9.2 pts to 57.5 in January. Looking at some details, Production rose from 52.3 to 59.1. Employment rose from 50.2 to 55.4. New Orders rose from 50.3 to 62.4. Finished stocks rose from 47.8 to 52.5. Deliveries also improved from 45.0 to 48.7.

                            BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that the January result was a welcome start to 2021, with the result clearly above the long term average of 53.0 for the Index.

                            BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said that “the 3-month average to January was 53.6, slightly above the long-term norm of 53.0.  Also, January’s improvement was encouraging in its composition, with New Orders leading the way”.

                            Full release here.

                            China confirms Liu He to go to US next week for trade deal signing

                              Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng confirmed that Vice Premier Liu He will travel to Washington next week to sign the first phase of trade agreement with US. Liu will be in US from January 13 to 15 as head of the delegation. Also, he will travel with the titles of Politburo member, vice premier and top trade negotiator.

                              There are no details regarding the 86-page trade deal yet. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer expected the document to be released after signing. One of the mostly concerned part is China’s USD 200B purchases of US goods and services. But Gao declined to comment on the amount of the purchase.

                              UK Johnson to set out Brexit negotiation approach as EU dropped call for intensification of talks

                                EU leaders concluded in the summit to give a further “two to three weeks” for negotiations with UK on post Brexit relationship. But they also demand the UK to make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible”. The final communique also asked chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, to “continue negotiations in the coming weeks”, dropping the call for “intensification” of talks as included in an earlier draft.

                                “We’re available, we shall remain available until the last possible day,” Barnier said. “The negotiations aren’t over – we want to give these negotiations every chance to be successful. I shall say to David Frost we’re prepared to speed up negotiations in the next few days.”

                                UK’s chief negotiator, David Frost, tweeted: “Disappointed by the conclusions on UK/EU negotiations. Surprised EU is no longer committed to working ‘intensively’ to reach a future partnership as agreed with [the European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen] on 3 October…. Also surprised by suggestion that to get an agreement all future moves must come from UK. It’s an unusual approach to conducting a negotiation.”

                                Frost also tweeted: “Boris Johnson will set out UK reactions and approach tomorrow (Friday) in the light of his statement of 7 September.”

                                 

                                US factory orders rose 0.7%, initial jobless claims rose 1k to 218k

                                  Released from US, factory orders rose 0.7% in June, in line with expectation.

                                  US initial jobless claims rose 1k to 218k in the week ended July 28. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -3.5k to 214.5k.

                                  Continuing claims dropped -23k to 1.724m in the week ended July 21. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -4.5k to 1.74175m.

                                  U

                                  Full release here.

                                  BoJ minutes: Momentum towards 2% inflation target was being maintained

                                    In the minutes of December 19/20 BoJ monetary policy meeting, most members shared that “although it would take time to achieve the 2 percent price stability target, it was appropriate to persistently continue with the powerful easing under the current guideline for market operations as the momentum toward achieving 2 percent inflation was being maintained”.

                                    Regarding Japan’s economic outlook, members “concurred that it was likely to continue its moderate expansion”. And they “shared the recognition that domestic demand was likely to follow an uptrend”. However, one member warned that “exports, including those to China, had been weak as a whole”. Another member pointed to “increasing number of firms held cautious views, mainly against the background of the prolonged US-China trade friction”.

                                    On prices, members shared the recognition that “CPI continued to show relatively weak developments compared to the economic expansion and the labor market tightening”. But most agreed that CPI was “likely to increase gradually toward 2 percent”.

                                    Full minutes here.

                                    Japan national CPI core rose to 0.8%, but core-core slowed

                                      Japan national CPI core (all items ex-fresh food), rose to 0.8% yoy in January, up from 0.7% yoy, matched expectations. But it remains well below BoJ’s 2% target. Headline CPI slowed to 0.7% yoy, down form 0.8% yoy. CPI core-core (all items ex-fresh food, energy slowed to 0.8% yoy, down fro 0.9% yoy.

                                      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today that he saw the economy to continue with moderate recovery. The central bank won’t hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary. But he didn’t believe it’s needed now.

                                      Kuroda added that uncertainty regarding China’s coronavirus outbreak is high, because of the impact on exports, production, and tourism. He’d watching the effects with “grave concern.” Also, the coronavirus will be the “biggest topic on the agenda” at this week’s G20 meeting.

                                      Australia employment dropped -29.5k in Sep, unemployment rate rose to 6.9%

                                        Australia employment dropped -29.5k in September, better than expectation of -50k. Full-time jobs dropped -20.1k while part-time jobs decreased by -9.4k. Unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 6.9%, below expectation of 7.1%. But at the same time, participation rate dropped -0.1% to 64.8%.

                                        Full release here.

                                        China MOFCOM on US-China trade talk: Will implement specifics as soon as possible

                                          China’s Ministry of Commerce issued an extremely brief Q&A statement regarding the results of Xi-Trump summit. In short, the MOFCOM said the meeting was successful. And, the economic and trade teams from both sides will actively promote the work of negotiations within 90 days in accordance with a clear timetable and road map. Most importantly, China pledged to implement the specifics, “sooner the better”.

                                          Here is the exact Q&A translated by Google.

                                          A reporter asked: We know that the Chinese economic and trade team has returned to Beijing. What is your comment on this meeting?

                                          A: The meeting was very successful and we have confidence in the implementation.

                                          Q: How is China prepared to promote the next economic and trade consultation?

                                          A: The economic and trade teams of the two sides will actively promote the consultation work within 90 days in accordance with a clear timetable and road map.

                                          Q: What are the priorities for China?

                                          A: China will start from implementing specific issues that have reached consensus, and the sooner the better.

                                          Original in simplified Chinese.