BoC Macklem: We’re getting closer on rates, but not there yet

    BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told a parliamentary committee yesterday that the central bank is “still far from its goal” of ensuring “low, stable, predictable” inflation.

    “Inflation has come down in recent months, but we have yet to see a generalized decline in price pressures,” Macklem said. “This tightening phase will draw to a close. We are getting closer, but we are not there yet.”

    “We anticipate that (inflation) will stay quite high for the rest of this year. It will start to decline next year,” he noted.

    BoJ’s asset holdings reached 1.3 times of nominal GDP in fiscal 2020

      According to BoJ’s data, total assets held surged to JPY 715T in fiscal 2020, on the central bank’s massive purchases. It was 1.3 times the nominal GDP of Japan, at JPY 536T in the same fiscal year.

      Of the assets, JGBs totaled JPY 532T, up 9.5% from a year earlier. Loans to financial institutions jumped 2.3 times to JPY 126T. ETS rose 20.7% to JPY 36T.

      Separately, it’s reported that BoJ would extend the pandemic relief program by another six months, at its June 17-18 meeting.

      Released from Japan, unemployment rate edged higher to 2.8% in April, up from 2.5%, above expectation of 2.7%. Tokyo CPI core dropped -2.0% yoy in May, unchanged from April’s reading.

      Fed Brainard: Monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time

        Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said yesterday that “monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time to provide confidence that inflation is moving down” to 2% target. She added Fed will need “several months of low monthly inflation readings to be confident that inflation is moving back down to 2%.”

        “Our resolve is firm,” Brainard said. “If history is any guide, it is important to avoid the risk of pulling back too soon,” and easing interest rates before inflation is under control.

        Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, “It’s really premature right now to be too specific about exactly what the right policy move will be in September… I will reiterate that we need to do more, we’ve not yet seen significant declines in prices, and that’s what we’re going to be looking for.”

        Sterling extends rebound as Johnson’s defeat at Commons

          UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered heavy defeat in the Commons overnight.. Sterling extended recent rebound as it’s now much less likely for no-deal Brexit to happen on October 31.

          The backbench launched bill on blocking no-deal Brexit has passed all stages and will head to the Lords on Thursday. Johnson then reacted to the defeat by calling a vote on general election on October 15, via the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. Support from two-thirds or more of MPs is required to pass the motion. But Labour and other oppositions mainly abstained. The motion won by 298 to 44 , way short of the 430-plus threshold.

          Labour has indicated that they might still back an election once the bill to stop a no-deal Brexit had become law. Even, Labour might only push for a election after October 31 Brexit date.

          Fed to keep rate unchanged at 1.50-1.75%, some previews

            FOMC rate decision is a major focus today. Fed is widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 1.50-1.75%. The accompanying statement will, at most, contain only minor changes from December’s. There will be no update on economic projections and median dot plot at the meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell would reiterate that monetary policy is at the right place. Overall, the decision and press conference is more likely a non-event than not.

            Currently, fed fund futures are indeed pricing in 87.3% chance of no change for today, and 12.7% chance of a hike to 1.75-2.00%. For June meeting, markets are pricing in 74.1% chance of federal funds rate being at 1.50-1.7% or above.

            Here are some suggested previews:

            EUR/CHF breaks 1.0790 minor support, GBP/CHF following down

              EUR/CHF is back under some selling pressing in European session as fall from 1.0871 is trying to resume. With 1.0790 support broken, the development suggests that rebound from 1.0661 might be completed after failing 1.0887 resistance. The corrective pattern from 1.0915 is extending with another falling leg. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.0777) could prompt downside acceleration back towards 1.0661.

              At the same time, GBP/CHF’s recovery also lost momentum quickly and could be heading back to 1.1797 support. Firm break there will pave the way to 1.1598 support, as part of the consolidation pattern from 1.2259. Both developments, if happen together, would double confirm near term rally in Swiss Franc, which could see USD/CHF drops through 0.8875 temporary low too.

              ECB dissenter Wunsch not comfortable taking a commitment for five or six years

                ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch confirmed to CNBC that he voted against the central bank’s new forward guidance. But he urged that “my dissent shouldn’t be dramatized,” as “we all agree we want to be supportive in this phase of the recovery, we all actually want to go to 2%”.

                “The most important conclusion of the retreat actually, and our new strategy, is what I would call a ‘no regret’ conclusion, in that we all agree that what we have been doing in the last few years was necessary and proportional,” Wunsch said.

                “The question is whether this proportionality test that we are going to have to make in the future — whether we can remain proportional in what we do and take commitments over a long period of time, like five or six years in the future.”

                “We might be faced with issues of fiscal dominance, issues of financial dominance, and I just, at the end of the day, did not feel comfortable taking a commitment for five or six years.”

                 

                ECB de Cos to eliminate policy accommodation in very gradual manner

                  ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said he expects the end of net asset purchases at the beginning of July, followed by a first rate hike. Then there will be “another one in September, (to get us) out of the negative territory. What next would be decided “according to the circumstances.”

                  “What we can do is to eliminate progressively in a very gradual manner, all the accommodation of our monetary policy (…) we will be deciding some steps in the following weeks, and this will be enough,” de Cos said.

                  Another governing council member Ignazio Visco emphasized, “given the uncertainty of the economic outlook, the rates will have to be raised gradually.”

                  RBA kept cash rate at 0.25%, very large economic contraction expected in Q2

                    RBA left cash rate unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected. It also reaffirmed the 0.25% target for 3-year government bond yield with asset purchases. The central bank also said that it “will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band.”

                    RBA also said noted there is “considerable uncertainty” about the near-term outlook of the economy. Much depends on the successful of coronavirus containment and the length of social distancing. Nevertheless, “a very large economic contraction” is expected in Q2 and unemployment is expected to rise to its “highest level for many years”.

                    Full statement here.

                    Schnabel: ECB will continue to conduct PSPP and PEPP

                      In an interview published today, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel talked down German Constitutional Court ruling that the public sector purchase programme (PSPP) is partly unconstitutional. She noted that European Court of Just has “exclusive jurisdiction” over ECB and its actions. The PSPP was already ruled legal in 2018.

                      Hence, “we will continue to conduct the PSPP and the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), as well as our other monetary policy measures, in line with our mandate.” She also emphasized that “the primacy of EU law is key for the functioning of the European Union.

                      Turning to the economy, Schnabel said Eurozone is “indeed facing a very deep economic crisis, on top of a humanitarian crisis”. A “broad set of measures” was adopted by ECB including the new PEPP. “we stand ready to adjust the size and duration of the programme if needed”.

                      RBA Debelle: 2% is the focal point for wage outcomes now

                        RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle delivered a speech titled “The Outlook for the Australian Economy” at the CFO Forum in Sydney today, where he talked about wages.

                        He noted that “the experience of other countries with labour markets closer to full capacity than Australia’s is that wages growth may remain lower than historical experience would suggest.”

                        Currently in Australia “2% seems to have become the focal point for wage outcomes, compared with 3–4% in the past.” Even so, “”there is a risk that it may take a lower unemployment rate than we currently expect to generate a sustained move higher than the 2% focal point evident in many wage outcomes today”.

                        ECB Praet: Headwinds becoming increasingly noticeable

                          ECB chief economist Peter Praet said in a speech today that “factors related to protectionism, financial market volatility and vulnerabilities in emerging markets are creating headwinds that are becoming increasingly noticeable”.

                          He added that “surveys of euro area business activity and sentiment indicators have softened perceptibly relative to their earlier highs, although they remain in expansionary territory and are still above long-term averages for most sectors and countries.”

                          Here is his full speech. It’s actually identical to the one delivered on November 13.

                          UK economy stalls in Feb as GDP growth misses expectations

                            UK economy experienced a slowdown in February, with no monthly growth (0.0% mom) in GDP, falling short of the 0.1% mom growth expected by analysts. The disappointing result follows a 0.4% mom growth in January. The data reveals that services contracted by -0.1% mom after a 0.7% mom growth in January, while production fell by -0.2% mom following a -0.5% mom contraction in January. In contrast, construction sector saw growth of 2.4% mom, rebounding from a -1.7% mom contraction in January.

                            In the three months to February, GDP grew by a mere 0.1% when compared to the three months to November. During this period, services grew by 0.1%, production declined by -0.2%, and construction experienced growth of 0.9%. The lackluster performance raises concerns about the overall health of the UK economy.

                            Full UK GDP release here.

                            Also published, industrial production came in at -0.2% mom, -3.1% yoy, versus expectation o f0.3% mom, -3.7% yoy. Manufacturing production was at 0.0%mom, -2.4% yoy, versus expectation of 0.3% mom, -4.7% yoy. Goods trade deficit narrowed slightly to GBP -17.5B, versus expectation of GBP -17.0B.

                            SNB keeps rate at -0.75%, upgrade inflation forecasts

                              SNB keeps sight deposit rate unchanged at -0.75% as widely expected. It reiterated that is is “willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, in order to counter upward pressure on the Swiss franc”. The Swiss franc remains “highly valued”.

                              SNB said, “the war in Ukraine has had an effect on the Swiss economy above all via the strong increase in commodity prices”, and are likely to “weigh on consumption and increase companies’ production costs”. Trade is likely to be affected by “albeit not severely given Switzerland’s limited direct economic ties to Ukraine and Russia”. Supply bottlenecks “could deteriorate further” and uncertainty could have an “adverse impact on investment activity.”. 2022 growth forecasts was revised lower to around 2.5%.

                              The inflation forecast, conditioned on policy rate at -0.75%, was raised in general. But inflation is projected to peak at 2.2% in Q2 2022, then slow gradually to 0.7% in Q2 2023, then climb back to 1.1% in Q1. For the year as a whole, inflation is projected to be 2.1% in 2022 (upgraded from 1.0%), 0.9% in 2023 (up graded from 0.6%), and then 0.9% in 2024 (new).

                              Full statement here.

                              New Zealand terms of trade dropped -3%, largest fall since 2015

                                New Zealand terms of trade index dropped -3.0% qoq in Q4, much worse than expectation of -1.0% qoq. It’s also the largest decline since September 2015 quarter. Also ,falling global prices for milk powder and butter meant overall export prices dropped -1.7%. However, Stats NZ noted that “despite the latest fall, the terms of trade remained near the historic high in the December 2017 quarter.”

                                Full release here.

                                Also from New Zealand, building permits rose 16.5% mom in January.

                                60% trade will come into UK tariff free with new UKGT regime

                                  UK announced a new post-Brexit MFN tariff regime today, called the UK Global Tariff (UKGT). This will replace the EU’s Common External Tariff starting on January 1, 2021, at the end of the Brexit Transition Period.

                                  Under the new regime, tariffs on a wide range of products will be eliminated. 60% of trade will come into UK tariff free on WTO terms, of through existing preferential access. Successful FTS negotiations will increase the total. Tariffs will be maintained on agricultural products such as lamb, beef and poultry. Car tariffs will be maintained at 10%.

                                  “Our new Global Tariff will benefit UK consumers and households by cutting red tape and reducing the cost of thousands of everyday products,” International Trade Secretary Liz Truss said.

                                  Full release here.

                                  UK Leadsom: No-deal Brexit is on the table, it’s the legal default position

                                    UK government’s leader in the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom said the government does not want no-deal Brexit. But it’s there because that is the “legal default position”. And “essentially that is what will happen if we don’t vote for a deal.” She also noted that “What the government is seeking to do is to sort out the arrangements on the backstop so that parliament can vote for the deal. That is the government’s sole focus.”

                                    Meanwhile, Leadsom also urged EU to compromise on the Irish border backstop. She said “If the EU were to bring on the one thing that they have said they are determined to avoid, that is the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of March and thereby having to have some kind of hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. So it simply would not make sense to precipitate such a conundrum when the option of a negotiated arrangement, where the UK could put in place alternative arrangements for the backstop, would be far preferable from everybody’s point of view including from the perspective of the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.”

                                    Into European session: NZD weakest, AUD recovers

                                      Entering into European session, New Zealand Dollar is the weakest one for today. RBNZ’s proposal to raise capital requirements for top banks apparent hurt sentiments towards the Kiwi. Such a move might tighten up financial conditions which eventually force the central bank to cut interest rates again. Yen is trading as the second weakest followed by Canadian. Rally in oil prices appear to be losing some momentum. Loonie will look into retail sales data today for renewed strength.

                                      Australian is the strongest one for today, paring some of this week’s losses. Officials have been trying to talk down the importance of China Dalian port’s ban of Australian coal imports. Swiss Franc and Euro are the next strongest for now.

                                      Over the week, Sterling is still the strongest one despite the lack of concrete breakthrough in Brexit impasse. Swiss Franc is the second strongest, followed by Euro. New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and Yen are the worst performing ones.

                                      In Asia:

                                      • Nikkei closed down -0.18%.
                                      • Hong Kong HSI is up 0.17%.
                                      • China Shanghai SSE is up 1.62%.
                                      • Singapore Strait Times is down -0.26%.
                                      • Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0018 at -0.038.

                                      Overnight:

                                      • DOW dropped -0.40%.
                                      • S&P 500 dropped -0.35%.
                                      • NASDAQ dropped -0.39%.
                                      • 10-year yield rose 0.034 to 2.688

                                      Bundesbank Nagel: Further policy action needed to halt and reverse rising inflation expectations

                                        Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned in an interview, “our monthly surveys of firms and households are showing a significant increase in long-term inflation expectations.”

                                        “I firmly believe that we need to take further monetary policy action to halt and reverse this trend,” he added.

                                        Nagel also said that allowing inflation to become entrenched would be even worse. “Then we would be forced to tighten policy all the more sharply further down the line, thus placing even more of a strain on the economy.”

                                        “I am optimistic that Germany will be able to avoid a severe economic slump and we will get off lightly with a mild downturn. And I am confident that we will be able to tame the high rate of inflation over the medium term”, he noted.

                                        “There is a distinct risk of stronger second-round effects because the higher wage deals that are being reached could prolong the prevailing period of high inflation rates”

                                        Full interview here.

                                        RBA to stand pat, a look at AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD and AUD/JPY

                                          RBA rate decision is a focus in the upcoming Asian session. It’s generally expected to keep the overnight cash rate unchanged at 1.50%. There shouldn’t be any chance of any surprise in the decision. Meanwhile, the accompanying statement will likely be rather unchanged from the prior one.

                                          The more interesting event could indeed be the Monetary Policy Statement to be released on Friday. There RBA will published updated growth, inflation and unemployment forecasts. Also, the forecasts horizon will extend to December 2020, from June 2020.

                                          Currently a full 25bps rate hike is not priced in until late 2019.

                                          Let’s have a look at some Australian Dollar crosses.

                                          AUD/NZD is clearly in consolidation since 1.0991. Support was seen from the slightly rising 55 day EMA. Daily MACD an RSI also suggest building up of upside momentum. The current development favors an eventual upside break out. Fundamentally, it’s also consistent with the respective central bank’s stance. RBA maintains a tightening bias. RBNZ is neutral and the next both can be up or down.

                                          Given that RBNZ will also meet this week, the immediate focus is on 1.0991 resistance for the next few days. Decisive break of 1.0991 will resume whole rise from 1.0486 and target 100% projection of 1.0486 to 1.0960 from 1.0656 at 1.1130. And in any case, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.0832 support holds.

                                          On the other hand, AUD/CAD has been in clear down trend. It’s primarily due to expectation that BoC is possibly on track for another rate hike in October. This week’s focus will be on 0.9553 low. Break there will extend the fall from 1.0241 to 61.8% projection 1.0241 to 0.9553 from 0.9930 at 0.9505 and then 100% projection at 0.9242 in medium term. ON the upside, though, above 0.9707 resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 0.9553 with another rebound first.

                                          AUD/JPY is trading near to the mid-point of converging range from 80.48. There is no clear sign of a breakout yet. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 84.52 resistance holds. The downside from 90.29 is expected to resume eventually with a downside breakout. And break of 80.48 will target 61.8% retracement of 72.39 (2016 low) to 90.29 (2017 high) at 79.22.