Australia GDP grew 0.7% qoq in Q2 better than expectation

    Australia GDP grew 0.7% qoq in Q2, above expectation of 0.5% qoq. Over 2020-21, the economy grew 1.4%. Head of National Accounts at the ABS, Michael Smedes said: “Domestic demand drove growth of 0.7 per cent this quarter which saw continued growth across household spending, private investment and public sector expenditure. Lockdowns had minimal impact on domestic demand, with fewer lockdown days and the prolonged stay at home orders in NSW only commencing later in the quarter”.

    Full release here.

    ECB Knot: Decision next week would imply a reduction in PEPP purchase pace

      ECB Governing Council member Klass Knot said he’d expects a decision in next week’s meeting that “should not be incompatible” with ending the PEPP in March. And, “that would imply a reduction in the purchase pace.”

      Knot explained that “PEPP has a clearly delineated objective — repairing the damage that the coronavirus has inflicted on the inflation outlook.” And, “the stars are much better aligned than they have been for a long time for the return of inflation back to 2%.”

      Though, he added, “I can understand that next week we may want to maintain some optionality, also to see how the delta variant will play out.”

      US consumer confidence dropped to 113.8 in Aug, lowest since Feb

        US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped from 125.1 to 113.8 in August, missed expectation of 123.3. Present Situation Index dropped from 157.2 to 147.3. Expectations Index dropped from 103.8 to 91.4.

        “Consumer confidence retreated in August to its lowest level since February 2021 (95.2),” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

        “Concerns about the Delta variant—and, to a lesser degree, rising gas and food prices—resulted in a less favorable view of current economic conditions and short-term growth prospects. Spending intentions for homes, autos, and major appliances all cooled somewhat; however, the percentage of consumers intending to take a vacation in the next six months continued to climb. While the resurgence of COVID-19 and inflation concerns have dampened confidence, it is too soon to conclude this decline will result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.”

        Full release here.

        Canada GDP grew 0.7% mom in Jun, to contract -0.4% mom in Jul

          Canada GDP grew 0.7% mom in June, matched expectations. Total economic activity was -1.5% below February 2020’s pre-pandemic level. Overall, 15 of 20 industrial sectors were up. Services-producing industries rose 0.7% mom while goods-producing industries rose 0.9% mom.

          Statistics Canada said preliminary information indicates an approximate -0.4% decline in real GDP for July. The main decreases were in manufacturing, construction and retail trade.

          Full release here.

          ECB Holzmann will advise to slow down asset purchases in Q4, more so in Q1

            ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said in an interview, “we are now in a situation where we can think about how to reduce the pandemic special programs — I think that’s an assessment we share.””We have the opportunity to discuss how do we close the pandemic part and focus on the inflation part,” he added.

            “If enough people share my opinion, we will certainly advise the Executive Board to slow down purchases in the fourth quarter and more so in the first,” Holzmann said. “We will spend as much as needed.”

            Eurozone CPI jumped to 3.0% yoy in Aug, core CPI rose to 1.6% yoy

              Eurozone CPI accelerated to 3.0% in August, up sharply from 2.2% yoy, above expectation of 2.8% yoy. CPI core rose to 1.6% yoy, up from 0.7% yoy, above expectation of 0.5% yoy.

              Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in August (15.4%, compared with 14.3% in July), followed by non-energy industrial goods (2.7%, compared with 0.7% in July), food, alcohol & tobacco (2.0%, compared with 1.6% in July) and services (1.1%, compared with 0.9% in July).

              Full release here.

              France consumer spending dropped -2.2% mom in Jul, GDP rose 1.1% qoq in Q2

                France consumer spending dropped -2.2% mom in July, below expectation of 0.7% mom rise. This decrease came from the fallback in purchases of manufactured goods (–2.7%) and the sharp drop in food consumption (–2.9%). Energy expenditure, meanwhile, increased moderately (+1.0%).

                GDP grew 1.1% qoq in Q2 in volume term better than expectation of 0.9% qoq. GDP closed one quarter of the gap to is pre-crisis level at the end of 2020. It stood -3.2% below its level in Q4 2019.

                Japan industrial production dropped -1.5% mom in Jul, but expected to bounce back ahead

                  Japan industrial production dropped -1.5% mom in July, better than expectation of -2.5% mom. The overall output was back below pre-pandemic levels already. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expects, however, a bounce back of 3.4% in production in August, and 1.0% in September.

                  Unemployment rate ticked down to 2.8%, better than expectation of 2.9%.

                  China PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.1, services tumbled to 47.5

                    China’s official PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly from 50.4 to 50.1 in August, below missed expectation of 50.2. PMI Non-Manufacturing dropped sharply from 53.3 to 47.5, well below expectation of 52.8, back in contraction for the first time since Q1 last year.

                    “This epidemic in multiple provinces and locations was a fairly big shock to the services industry, which is still in recovery,” said Zhao Qinghe, of China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

                    New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -14.2 on Delta lockdown

                      New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped sharply from -3.8 to -14.2 in August. Own Activity Outlook dropped from 26.3 to 19.2. Looking at some more details, export intentions ticked down from 7.6 to 7.4. Investment intentions dropped from 17.4 to 14.4. Employment intentions dropped from 21.4 to 17.0. Profit expectations dropped from 0.0 to -5.5. Inflation expectations, however, rose further from 2.70 to 3.05, above RBNZ’s target band. ANZ said that the “initial responses after level 4 lockdown look encouragingly robust”.

                      ANZ also noted while Delta is a “formidable opponent”, there are some reasons to the “glass-half-full about the situation”. The economy had “significant momentum” going into the lockdown. People will be a lot more confidence than last time regarding their job. Also evidence there and overseas suggests that the bounce out of lockdowns tends to be vigorous. But it’s still too soon to be sure when the level 4 restrictions will stamp out Delta.

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone economic sentiment dropped to 117.5, employment expectation rose to 112.8

                        Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indictor dropped from record high of 119.0 to 117.5 in August, below expectation of 118.6. Employment Expectations Indictor rose 1.2 pts to 112.8, hitting the highest level since November 2018. Looking at some more details, industry confidence dropped from 14.5 to 13.7. Services confidence dropped from 18.9 to 16.8. Consumer confidence dropped from -4.4 to -5.3. Retail trade confidence rose from 4.4 to 4.6. Construction confidence rose from 4.0 to 5.5.

                        EU ESI dropped -1.5 pts from record high 118.0 to 116.5. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI fell sharply in France (-4.5) and in the Netherlands (-3.0), and to a lesser extent, in Italy (-1.9), Poland (-1.7) and Spain (-1.2). Sentiment in Germany (-0.3) was virtually unchanged. Employment Expectation Indicator rose 1.0 pts to 112.6, highest since November 2018.

                        Full release here.

                        Swiss KOF dropped to 113.5, 4th wave of pandemic fueling doubts on economy

                          Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped for the third month in a row to 113.5 in August, below expectation of 126.3. However, it’;s still well above it’s average value of 100. KOF said, “the fourth wave of the pandemic, which is now becoming increasingly clear, is apparently fueling doubts about largely unhindered economic activity in the near future.”

                          Full release here.

                          ECB Villeroy: No urgency to decide on asset purchases at Sep meeting

                            ECB Governing Council member, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau told BFM Business radio that the economies in France and the euro zone should be back to pre-COVID levels in early 2022 or maybe earlier.

                            He added there is no risk of higher inflation at this stage, and there is no risk of a sustainable surge in inflation in the Eurozone. He expected PEPP purchases to be there until at least March 2022. There is no urgency to decide on asset purchases at the September meeting.

                            AUD/NZD staying in down trend as AU and NZ lockdowns extend

                              Australia’s coronavirus deaths surpassed 1000 over the weekend, as New South Wales reported four deaths, with a new daily record of 1290 infections. As lockdown continues, Premier Gladys Berejiklian emphasized in the updated that “when we get to 70 per cent double dose, the freedoms we are expecting will be [for] those of [us who] are fully vaccinated.” Victoria also announced on Sunday that lockdown, the sixth one, would be extended.

                              Separately, New Zealand announced to extend level 4 restrictions in Auckland today, for at least another two weeks. Nevertheless, alert level for other parts of the country is lowered. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said it’s too soon to say whether the outbreak had peaked. But Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield noted the encouraging sign that the “R number” was already one.

                              AUD/NZD is still in a near term down trend even though downside momentum is diminishing, as seen in daily MACD. As long as 1.0538 resistance holds, current fall from 1.0944, as the third leg of the pattern from 1.1042, could still extend to 100% projection of 1.1042 to 1.0415 from 1.0944 at 1.0317.

                              Powell: Fed will carefully assessing incoming data and the evolving risks

                                In the highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech, Fed chair Jerome Powell said “substantial further progress test has been “met for inflation”. And there has also been “clear progress toward maximum employment”.

                                At July’s FOMC meeting, he view was that if the economy “evolved broadly as anticipated”, it could be “appropriate to start” tapering this year. However, “the intervening month has brought more progress in the form of a strong employment report for July, but also the further spread of the Delta variant.”

                                He added that Fed will be “carefully assessing incoming data and the evolving risks”, without giving any hint of the timing and pace of tapering

                                Full speech here.

                                Fed Chair Powell speech live stream

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                                  Full speech here.

                                  Fed Mester comfortable with tapering some time this year

                                    Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she’s “comfortable with tapering some time this year”. She wanted it “completed by the middle of next year”. She added that there is “no need” for the kind of accommodation as “at the height of the crisis”.

                                    Mester said she is watching “if one-off price increases become embedded in inflation expectations.” She is “very watchful” on the inflation side and she now thinks “it will be more prolonged”.

                                    Fed Harker still supportive of moving the taper along

                                      Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he’s “still supportive of moving the taper along”, because he didn’t think asset purchase is “doing a whole lot right now”. He added that Fed should finish tapering before considering raising interest rates.

                                      He said the Fed has achieved “substantial further progress on inflation” already. There is “some evidence that inflationary pressure “may not be so transitory”. Meanwhile, the job market is changing the people’s thinking about what a job is has changed too.

                                      US PCE inflation accelerated to 4.2% yoy in Jul, core PCE unchanged at 3.6% yoy

                                        US personal income rose 1.1% or USD 225.9B in July, well above expectation of 0.2%. Spending rose 0.3% or USD 42.2B, slightly below expectation of 0.4%.

                                        Headline PCE accelerated to 4.2% yoy, up from 4.0% yoy, above expectation of 3.5% yoy. Core PCE was unchanged at 3.6% yoy, matched expectations. Energy increased 23.6% yoy while food prices rose 2.4% yoy.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Fed Bostic comfortable with Oct timeline for tapering

                                          Boston Fed President Raphael Bostic he’s “comfortable with an October timeline” for starting tapering if August job growth could match the near 1m number as with the previous two months. Also, once the tapering starts, he was “definitely looking to get this done as quickly as possible”, and put a full end to the asset purchases “toward the end of Q1” of 2022.

                                          He also said that the spread of the Delta variant had not changed his economic outlook in any fundamental way. “What I have seen is some suggestion that things are slowing down, but they are still just slowing from extremely high levels. I have not seen big changes in the underlying dynamic,” Bostic added.