US initial jobless claims fall to 216k vs exp 226k

    US initial jobless claims fell -6k to 216k in the week ending November 22, below expectation of 226k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -1k to 224k.

    Continuing claims rose 7k to 1960k in the week ending November 15. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 750 to 1956k.

    Full US jobless claims release here.

    US durable goods rise 0.5% mom in September, ex-transport strength stands out

      US durable goods orders rose 0.5% mom to USD 313.7B in September, matching expectations. The headline increase was driven primarily by transportation equipment, which climbed 0.4% mom to USD 110.7B, extending gains for a second month.

      Ex-defense orders also inched 0.1% higher to USD 290.6B, reflecting still-modest momentum across broader manufacturing categories.

      The stronger signal came from core orders, with ex-transportation rising 0.6% mom — well above the 0.2% consensus — to USD 202.9B. The data suggest business investment remains resilient, offering a mild counterweight to recent signs of cooling elsewhere in the economy.

      Full US durable goods orders release here.

      AUD/NZD drops as hawkish RBNZ cut overpowers hot Australia CPI

        AUD/NZD tumbled sharply today as markets digested two major releases: RBNZ’s widely expected 25bps cut and Australia’s stronger-than-forecast CPI print. Despite the upside surprise on inflation, AUD buying was no match for the hawkish tone embedded in RBNZ’s announcement, which effectively signaled that the easing cycle is now complete.

        That distinction proved decisive. With RBNZ projecting the OCR to bottom near current levels and rise gradually into 2027, the case for deeper easing has evaporated. Although the RBA is also expected to stay on hold through early 2026, the interest-rate differential is now set to remain stable rather than widening. Investors who previously bet on wider divergence, a trend accelerated by New Zealand’s sharp Q2 economic contraction, are now unwinding positions.

        Technically, AUD/NZD’s break of 1.1452 support confirms resumption of the decline from 1.1634 short term top. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 1.1634 is likely correcting rise from 1.0724. Deeper fall should be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1367) and possibly below.

        But strong support is expected from 1.1275 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.0724 to 1.1634 at 1.1286) to bring rebound and set the range for sideway trading.

        Rise from 1.0649 is still expected to have another rising leg through 1.1634 to complete a five-wave impulsive pattern. But that’s unlikely to happen soon. The move may only come when the markets start to bet that RBA would hike interest rate earlier than RBNZ, which won’t be in the near future.

        That next leg, however, would require a significant shift in rate expectations—specifically, a scenario where markets begin to see the RBA tightening earlier than RBNZ, which is not on the horizon at present.


        Australia CPI surges to 3.8% in October, goods and services prices accelerate

          Australia’s CPI accelerated more than expected in October, rising from 3.5% yoy to 3.8%, beating expectations of 3.6%. Underlying pressure also firmed, with trimmed mean CPI moving up from 3.2% to 3.3%.

          Both goods and services inflation picked up, with annual goods inflation at 3.8% (up from 3.7%) and services inflation at 3.9% (up from 3.5), signaling renewed price momentum. The combination will keep the RBA wary of easing again too soon.

          The details showed broad-based increases. Housing costs was the largest contributor at 5.9%, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages at 3.2%, and recreation and culture at 3.2%.

          The release is also notable as the first in which Monthly CPI replaces the quarterly gauge as Australia’s primary headline measure.

          Full Australia CPI release here.

          RBNZ delivers 25bps cut but signals little room for further easing

            RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25% as widely expected, but the tone of the announcement was more hawkish than markets had anticipated.

            Policymakers revealed they had debated holding rates at 2.50% versus cutting to 2.25%, and the final decision was reached by a 5–1 vote. The lone dissenter in favour of holding highlights pockets of concern about easing too deeply and reflects a more cautious internal balance than many had assumed.

            More importantly for markets, RBNZ’s updated forward guidance showed a notably firmer policy path. The Bank now expects the OCR to bottom at just 2.2% through 2026 before gradually rising to 2.7% by the end of 2027. That trajectory implies minimal scope for further cuts next year if the economic outlook holds, effectively signaling that today’s move may mark the end of the easing cycle.

            The accompanying statement reinforced that message. RBNZ said economic activity was weak through mid-2025 but is now improving, with lower interest rates supporting household spending and the labor market stabilizing. The fall in the exchange rate is also lifting exporters’ incomes, reducing the need for more aggressive stimulus from here. Risks to the inflation outlook are now viewed as “balanced”.

            Full RBNZ statement and MPS.

            US consumer confidence falls too 88.7 in November, expectations deep in recession zone

              US Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell sharply in November, dropping from 95.5 to 88.7 and undershooting expectations of 93.4. Both major components weakened: Present Situation Index slipped -4.3 points to 126.9, while Expectations Index fell -8.6 points to 63.2. Crucially, the Expectations Index has now remained below the recession-signaling threshold of 80 for ten straight months.

              The Conference Board warned that the deterioration was broad-based. Chief Economist Dana Peterson noted that confidence “tumbled… to its second lowest level since April” after months of sideways movement. All five components of the index either weakened or remained at depressed levels, suggesting that consumers are increasingly concerned about future economic conditions.

              Full US consumer confidence release here.

               

              US PPI rises 0.3% mom in September, core pressure eases

                US PPI rose 0.3% mom and 2.7% yoy in September, matching expectations. The entire monthly advance came from goods, where prices jumped 0.9%, while services were flat.

                PPI final demand less food, energy, and trade—edged up just 0.1% mom after a firmer 0.3% mom reading in August. On a 12-month basis, core rose 2.9%.

                Full US PPI release here.

                US retail sales miss at 0.2% mom growth in September

                  US retail sales rose 0.2% mom to USD 733.3B in September, falling short of the 0.4% forecast. Ex-auto sales performed slightly better at 0.3% mom, in line with expectations. Ex-gasoline sales were flat.

                  On a longer view, sales for the July–September period were still up 4.5% yoy, indicating that overall demand remains broadly supported.

                  Full US retail sales release here.

                  UK retail sentiment hits 17-year low ahead of Autumn Budget

                    UK retail sentiment deteriorated sharply in November, with the CBI’s quarterly Distributive Trades Survey showing confidence plunging to its worst level in 17 years. Firms expect their business situation to worsen over the coming quarter, with the index sliding to -35% from -10% in August.

                    Sales volumes also contracted at a faster pace, with the year-to-November balance dropping to -32% from -27% in October. Retailers expect the decline to moderate slightly next month, but the outlook remains bleak, pointing to another weak patch heading into the key holiday period. Even modest stabilization would leave activity at depressed levels by historical standards.

                    CBI Deputy Chief Economist Alpesh Paleja said retailers are still grappling with “a long spell of weak demand”. He added that uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming Autumn Budget is causing businesses to delay investment and hiring decisions.

                    Full CBI Distributive Trades Survey release here.

                    Two-way risks for AUD/NZD as RBNZ cut meets rising Australia CPI

                      AUD/NZD is shaping up for an active week, with two major catalysts—RBNZ’s rate announcement and Australia’s monthly CPI—set to hit on Wednesday.

                      RBNZ is widely expected to cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%. The NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board also endorsed a quarter-point reduction, arguing that although the economy is beginning to recover from a low base, excess capacity remains and a small additional cut is justified. Some members, however, warned against pushing stimulus too far, citing the risk of reigniting inflation—highlighting a cautious undercurrent within the broader policy debate.

                      On the medium-term path, the Shadow Board’s views clustered around an OCR of 2.25%–2.50% in a year, implying broad consensus that only limited easing will be required beyond November. While a minority still consider the risk of a larger, front-loaded cut—particularly given the long three-month gap until the next meeting—the Board’s recommendations may help stabilize expectations at a standard 25bps move.

                      In Australia, CPI is expected to rise again, from 3.5% to 3.6% for October, the fourth consecutive acceleration from June’s trough of 1.9%. A trend like this keeps the RBA firmly on hold for the remainder of the year, with any upside surprise diminishing the likelihood of a February rate cut. Sticky inflation would strengthen AUD by reinforcing Australia’s higher-for-longer stance relative to New Zealand’s easing cycle.

                      Technically, AUD/NZD carved out a short-term top at 1.1634 earlier this month and has since turned sideway. For now, it’s seen as in a brief near term correction. Break of 1.1570 minor resistance will solidify this case and bring retest of 11634 high.

                      However, on the downside, break of 1.1452 support will indicate that deeper decline is underway, as fall from 1.1634 could be correcting whole rise from 1.0724. But even so, downside should be contained by 1.1275 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0724 to 1.1634 at 1.1286) or even higher at 55 D EMA (now at 1.1362).

                      There should be one more up leg through 1.1634 before the whole five-wave up trend from 1.0649 (April low) completes.


                      Gold rises towards 4244 as dovish Fed signals drive yields lower

                        Gold pushed higher this week as markets continued to recalibrate toward a December Fed rate cut. The move come in tandem with notable falling 10-year yield, which provide some tailwinds to the precious metal too. More upside is expected in Gold in the near term, even though a new record is still expected next year, rather than this.

                        The Fed’s internal balance has moved noticeably toward the dovish camp. Mary Daly, in her WSJ interview, argued that labor-market fragility now poses a greater risk than inflation and said she supports easing next month. While not a vote, her comments—combined with John Williams’ earlier pivot—validates that the center of the Fed’s spectrum has shifted meaningfully towards easing. That has driven expectations for a December cut to around 80%.

                        Technically, 10-year yield’s break of 4.056 support suggests that corrective rebound from 3.947 has completed at 4.162, after hitting falling channel resistance that started at 4.629 (May high). Further decline would now be seen towards 3.947 low.

                        Gold’s breakout above 4,132.77 indicates that pullback from 4,244.86 bottomed at 3,997.73. The rally from 3,886.41, as the second leg of the broader corrective pattern from 4,381.22, remains in progress. Further rise is expected to 4,244.86 and higher, as support by weakness in yield. But strong resistance should emerge from 4,381.22 high to cap upside to bring the third leg of the pattern.

                         

                        Fed’s Daly backs December cut, warns job market risks outweigh inflation

                          San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly signaled clear support for a rate cut at next month’s FOMC meeting, telling the Wall Street Journal that the Fed now faces greater risk from a sudden deterioration in the labor market than from another inflation flare-up.

                          She said the job market is “vulnerable enough now” that the risk of a sharp, “nonlinear” weakening is rising, leaving policymakers with less room to react if they wait too long. Daly emphasized that she no longer feels confident the Fed can “get ahead of” labor-market weakening, arguing that the damage from a sudden drop in hiring would be harder to manage than moderating inflation.

                          On inflation, Daly said the chance of a meaningful reacceleration appears limited, pointing to softer-than-expected tariff-related cost increases this year.

                           

                          Fed’s Waller backs December cut, says January depends on data flood

                            Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled clear support for a December rate cut, saying most private-sector and anecdotal data since the last FOMC meeting show little improvement in economic conditions. He noted that the labor market “is soft” and “continuing to weaken,” with inflation expected to ease, creating an environment where another cut next month is appropriate.

                            Waller said the January meeting presents more uncertainty, as the Fed will receive a “flood of data” that had been delayed by the government shutdown. If those releases align with recent trends—softening labor conditions and moderating inflation—then a case for another cut could be made. “But if it suddenly shows a rebound in inflation or jobs or the ⁠economy’s taking off, then it might give concern,”‌” he added.

                            Beyond policy, Waller confirmed he met recently with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss his potential nomination as the next Fed Chair, as the Trump administration moves to select a successor to Jerome Powell. Waller said the meeting went “great,” and argued that the administration is seeking someone with “merit, experience, and knows what they are doing,” adding, “I think I fit that.”

                            Powell’s term ends in May, leaving a narrow window for the White House to finalize its choice.

                            German Ifo falls to 88.1, firms see little prospect of near-term rebound

                              Germany’s business mood softened in November as the Ifo Business Climate Index edged down to 88.1 from 88.4, missing expectations of 88.5. The decline was driven mainly by weaker expectations, which dropped from 91.6 to 90.6. Assessment of current conditions improved slightly from 85.3 to 85.6.

                              Sector details remained broadly negative. Manufacturing slipped further from -12.1 to -12.5, reflecting sustained weakness in global demand and the lingering impact of U.S. tariff. Services eased from 2.9 to 2.6, hinting at a moderation in domestic resilience. Trade deteriorated from -20.4 to -21.4 and construction fell from -14.4 to -15.7. Together, these readings signal a still-fragile backdrop with limited catalysts for improvement heading into year-end.

                              Ifo noted that sentiment among German firms has deteriorated as companies grow more pessimistic about the medium-term outlook. While current conditions improved slightly, businesses “have little faith that a recovery is coming anytime soon.”

                              Full Germany’s Ifo release here.

                              SNB’s Schlegel says negative rates possible but bar remains high

                                SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel signaled over the weekend that the central bank remains willing to reintroduce negative interest rates if mid-term price stability were threatened. However, he emphasized that “the bar is high”.

                                Schlegel also addressed the recent deal to cut U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods to 15% from 39%, describing it as helpful but far from being a “game changer”. The duties only affected roughly 4% of Swiss exports.

                                He said U.S. trade policy remains the biggest source of uncertainty for Swiss companies, noting that exporters will likely pause U.S.-bound shipments until the lower tariff rate is fully implemented.

                                Fed’s Collins signals hesitation on December rate cut

                                  Boston Fed President Susan Collins signaled a clear preference for caution ahead of the December 9–10 FOMC meeting, saying she sees “reasons to be hesitant” about lowering borrowing costs again. After the 50bps of easing delivered in September and October, Collins argued on Saturday that policy is now “mildly restrictive” and appropriately calibrated to current conditions.

                                  Collins stressed that the Fed faces a difficult balance: inflation remains above target while the job market shows visible signs of softening. She said risks exist “on both sides of the mandate,” and emphasized that more persistent weakness in employment could change her stance. “If I saw more evidence of softening and weakness, I would take that seriously,” she noted.

                                  She also highlighted the unusually wide set of views emerging inside the Committee. “We’re in a complex period” for setting policy, Collins said, adding that a range of perspectives is healthy at a time when the economic outlook is highly uncertain.

                                  US PMI composite rises to 54.8, solid Q4 momentum but inflation pressures re-emerge

                                    US business activity held firm in November, with the PMI Composite edging up from 54.6 to 54.8. The manufacturing index slipped from 52.5 to 51.9, while services climbed from 54.8 to 55.0. According to S&P Global’s Chris Williamson, the readings point to a “relatively buoyant” economy tracking around 2.5% annualized GDP growth so far in Q4, with the upturn “encouragingly broad-based”.

                                    Business confidence has also improved meaningfully, helped by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and relief following the reopening of the federal government. Williamson noted that optimism for the year ahead has strengthened as uncertainty surrounding policy and political risks recedes. Hiring continued in November, though firms remained cautious as tariffs and higher operating costs restrained labor demand.

                                    Still, the PMI report highlighted pockets of concern. Manufacturers saw slower new orders growth while reporting a record rise in finished goods inventories. Price pressures also re-accelerated: both input costs and selling prices rose at faster rates, keeping the inflation debate alive within the Fed.

                                    Full US PMI flash release here.

                                    Canada’s retail sales fall -0.7% mom in September, flat in October

                                      Canada’s retail sector weakened in September, with headline sales falling -0.7% mom to CAD 69.8B, in line with expectations. The decline was broad-based, with six of nine subsectors posting decreases, led primarily by motor vehicle and parts dealers. When excluding autos and gasoline, core retail sales were essentially flat. In volume terms, retail sales slid 0.8% mom, marking a clear step down in real consumption.

                                      On a quarterly basis, nominal retail sales eked out a 0.2% gain in Q3, but volumes declined -0.3%, showing that inflation-adjusted spending continues to stagnate.

                                      The advance estimate for October suggests no meaningful improvement, with retail sales expected to be broadly unchanged.

                                      Full Canada’s retail sales release here.

                                      Fed’s Williams sees room for another rate cut in the near term

                                        New York Fed President John Williams maintained a cautiously dovish tone today, saying he continues to view U.S. monetary policy as “modestly restrictive.” With that in mind, he sees room for “a further adjustment in the near term” to bring the federal funds rate closer to neutral.

                                        Williams reiterated his confidence that inflation will moderate as tariff effects filter through the economy without generating lasting price pressures. At the same time, he emphasized that the labor market appears to be cooling in a controlled manner.

                                        The unemployment rate reached 4.4% in September, a level he noted was comparable to pre-pandemic norms—when the job market was healthy but “not overheated.”

                                        UK PMI drops to 50.5; Sluggish growth and softer prices bolster December BoE cuts

                                          UK flash PMIs for November delivered a broadly downbeat signal on the economic outlook. Manufacturing managed to edge back into expansion territory, rising from 49.7 to 50.2 — its highest level in 14 months. But that improvement was overshadowed by a sharp drop in services activity, with PMI Services sliding from 52.3 to 50.5, a seven-month low. As a result, Composite PMI fell notably from 52.2 to 50.5.

                                          According to Chris Williamson of S&P Global Market Intelligence, the latest readings point to an economy that has “stalled,” with job losses accelerating and business confidence deteriorating sharply. The PMI readings are broadly consistent with zero GDP growth for November and only around 0.1% growth so far in Q4.

                                          While part of the slowdown is being blamed on paused spending decisions ahead of the Autumn Budget, weakening confidence suggests the hesitation may “turn into a downturn” if households and firms brace for new “demand-dampening measures” .

                                          The inflation outlook also softened meaningfully. Selling price inflation dropped to its lowest in almost five years, with goods prices falling at the fastest rate since 2016 and service-sector pricing power weakening.

                                          Taken together, the PMI data reinforce expectations that the BoE would cut rates in December, especially if next week’s Budget reinforces the pessimistic tone.

                                          Full UK PMI flash release here.