Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said overnight that she expects a slight pickup in the Fed’s preferred inflation measure following June’s CPI release and warned against easing policy prematurely. With the PCE inflation gauge at 2.3% in May, Logan said the latest CPI data “probably” means it will “move up a bit.” She stressed the need for a longer trend of subdued inflation before being confident in the disinflation process.
At the same time, Logan pointed to a solid labor market, near-record stock prices, and the recently passed Trump fiscal package as “tailwind” for continued economic strength.
Against that backdrop, Logan argued that the Fed can afford to “hold tight for a while longer,” maintaining modestly restrictive policy to ensure inflation returns to target sustainably.

















UK CPI rises to 3.6%, goods prices jump, services sticky
UK inflation came in hotter than expected in June. Headline CPI accelerated from 3.4% yoy to 3.6% yoy, above consensus of 3.4%. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco)also surprised to the upside, rising from 3.5% to 3.7%, versus expectation of 3.5% yoy.
Goods inflation picked up from 2.0% yoy to 2.4%, its highest since October 2023. Services inflation remained stubbornly high, unchanged at 4.7% yoy.
On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3%, adding to signs that disinflationary progress may be stalling.
Full UK CPI release here.