How to benefit when BTC price goes down?

    Intro

    It is no secret that Bitcoin is volatile, as all cryptocurrencies are! The trick is, knowing when prices will move and what to do when the inevitable movement comes. Sounds simple, right?

    There are many investors out there that have heavily backed Bitcoin and expect the price to keep rising. But what if the value of a coin was not reaching the heights you expected to? Is this something to be overly concerned about?

    Since Bitcoin’s arrival on the global stage, it has experienced many highs and lows. Massive swings which happen regularly which can last days, span a few hours or move big, without warning, in the space of a few minutes.

    This article will explore why Bitcoin moves in the way it does and we will also look at how we can benefit from a downward price movement on the original, world-famous, digital asset.

    At CryptoRocket (www.cryptorocket.com) you can trade over 30 digital assets including the following Bitcoin pairs:

    BTC/USD, BCH/BTC, ETH/BTC, LTC/BTC, NEO/BTC, XMR/BTC, ZEC/BTC

    Volatility

    Volatility can be described as something liable to change drastically, quickly and without warning. This description is accurate when we are putting the definition next to Bitcoin.

    Traditional stock volatility is measured by the volatility index which was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange in 1993. Also known as the VIX, what it does is represents a real-time market index showing the expected next 30 day movements with a focus on how volatile a stock might be. A useful tool for stock traders….

    Bitcoin does not have such a tool for Crypto investors to make use of. What we do know however is that Bitcoin is volatile and can move up to ten times as much as USD in a single trading day.

    So why is Bitcoin so volatile and what are the reasons behind it?

    One of the key reasons is that, although, in its 10th year, it is still relatively new technology. With new technology, new consumers need to get to grips with it and understand what the product is and how it functions. There are people out there, dare I say the older generation who can be more resistant to change when it comes to technology. This is evident when you look at statistics in supermarkets and which age groups are more willing to use self-checkout technology when purchasing their goods.

    People need time to adjust and adapt to change. Some people take longer than others, but in terms of how long currency and cold hard cash has been around, Bitcoin is still a new product and some people will need a little more encouragement to use technology as opposed to cash and banks.

    Bitcoin price is heavily affected by the news and media, especially when it comes to geopolitical events. In times of crisis within a country, new Bitcoin investors can surge within that country. This is especially true when examining the Cypriot banking crisis in 2013. The EU bailed out Cypriot banks but this came with terms and conditions. The cost of bailout was around the $20Billion mark yet the EU would only give Cyprus $13Billion. This meant that Cyprus would have to raise the further $7Billion themselves and they realized this by levying a tax on deposits.

    The tax was 6.75 percent from insured deposits of €100,000 or less, and 9.9 percent from uninsured amounts above €100,000. What this tax achieved was massive distrust in the banks from Cypriots and many Russians who live in Cyprus. The distrust in banks made trust in decentralized currency flourish. Bitcoin prices spiked thanks to this bailout.

    Many celebrities who have spoken out against Bitcoin and as influential people, this can truly have a knock-on effect on the value of a coin. Also, major incidents such as the closure of Silk Road harmed the price of Bitcoin. The FBI and Interpol shut down Silk Road in 2013 resulting in a life sentence for creator Ross Ulbricht. Many Bitcoin users lost trust in Bitcoin at this time and looked to sell as governments use rhetoric to suggest making Bitcoin follow some sort of compliance and regulation.

    Strategies to capitalize in downward movements and how to benefit

    As prices can rise, they can also crash and as investors, it is important to understand why and how we can manage this effectively. In 2018, the price of Bitcoin collapsed 61% – from an $8,300 high to $3,200 low in just six months showing just how much price can swing in a short period.

    There are a few things that can be done to capitalize on Bitcoin value taking a downward turn.

    For a start, a holder could straight up sell their Bitcoin and then buy again when the price reaches a severe low. Or low enough in the consumers’ opinion to make it worth buying before making an upturn.

    Traders can take advantage of a Bitcoin downturn by ‘going short’ or selling Bitcoin, staking money that Bitcoin will have a downward price movement – often referred to as profitable shorting.

    Users can also use margin trading or trading with leverage to further inflate profits. Leverage allows the ‘average trader’ to get involved in potentially high-profit trades without having to invest vast swathes of capital.

    In today’s modern trading world, thanks to high leveraged trading, more people than ever can speculate on markets with relatively low capital with the potential for high returns.

    It is advised that before trading with high leverage to investigate further and develop a trading strategy. Where can you do this you might ask? Many brokers in the marketplace offer a free to use ‘demo account’ for traders to perfect a strategy, get used to the available instruments and become accustomed to the MT4 trading platform.

    Start trading with CryptoRocket (www.cryptorocket.com) and benefit from a downward movement by using a max leverage of 1:100 for your favorite Cryptocurrency pairs with over 30 on offer including BTC/USD.

    Review the performance of other Cryptocurrencies to give yourself an idea of how the market is behaving and where Crypto investors are putting their money.

    Use a range of analysis to help form an overview of what is happening in the market. Draw on various types of media including social media, follow influencers in the Bitcoin world such as the Winklevoss twins. However, be wary when sourcing your information. John McAfee recently claimed that Bitcoin HAS to reach the million-dollar mark by the end of 2020. Recently he claimed this was a PR stunt – proving it is vital to collect your information from a range of sources. Bitcoin price today is at $8,745.56 a long way to go to a million in 11 months!

    Conclusion

    We have learned that Bitcoin is undoubtedly volatile and prices can and do take downturns. But it is not all doom and gloom. If you are holding onto Bitcoin, don’t stress too much about a negative price movement, instead, harness that energy and trade short to protect your investment!

    Bill Gates once said that if he could find an easy way to short Bitcoin, he would do. This was highlighted by one of the Winklevoss twins on Twitter. Guess what, Bill? You can short Bitcoin at CryptoRocket (www.cryptorocket.com). What’s more, they will be there for you 24/7 to assist you with all your account set up to get you started on your shorting adventure!

    Good luck!

    CAD dives after BoC, but outlook not overwhelmingly bearish

      Canadian Dollar turned from being one of the strongest after CPI, to the weakest after dovish BoC. In short, BoC left the option of rate cut open. It noted in the statement “Governing Council will be watching closely to see if the recent slowdown in growth is more persistent than forecast.”

      However, outlook in Canadian dollar is not overwhelmingly bearish, except probably against Dollar only, despite today’s sharp fall.

      USD/CAD’s development now argues that correction from 1.3664 might have completed as a triangle at 1.2951, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA will solidify this case and target 1.3327 resistance for confirmation.

      The case is building up for CAD/JPY that rise from 78.50 has completed with three waves up to 84.56, after hitting 61.8% retracement of 78.50 to 83.55 from 81.28 at 84.40. But 82.80 support is needed to trigger near term bearishness first. Otherwise, further rise could still be seen.

      Despite the today’s rebound EUR/CAD is held below 1.4581 near term resistance so far. There is no indication of short term bottoming yet. And, even if 1.4581 is taken out, that could mean EUR/CAD is in the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.4415. That is, larger down trend will remain in tact in that case.

      AUD/CAD is also staying below 0.9038 resistance. Fall from 0.9150 is in favor to extend to retest 0.8835 low. For now, even in case of another fall, break of 0.8835 is not anticipated. Overall, consolidation form 0.8835 will likely extend further.

      BoC stands pat, left rate cut option open, revised down 2020 GDP forecast

        BoC left overnight rate target unchanged at 1.75% as widely expected. The central bank said the Canadian economy has been “resilient” but indicators since October have been “mixed”. Globally, the economy is showing “signs of stabilization” with “positive” trade developments. But “there remains a high degree of uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have re-emerged, with tragic consequences.”

        BoC left the option of rate cut open, and said the “Governing Council will be watching closely to see if the recent slowdown in growth is more persistent than forecast.” Special attention will be paid to consumer spending, housing and business investment.

        In the Monetary Policy Report, 2020 GDP forecast was revised down from 1.7% to 1.6%. But 2021 GDP growth is revised up from 1.8% to 2.0%. 2020 CPI projection was revised up form 1.8% to 1.9%. 2021 CPI projection was left unchanged.

        Full Monetary Policy Report here.

        Canada CPI unchanged at 2.2%, matched expectations

          Canada CPI was unchanged at 2.2% yoy in December, matched expectations. CPI common accelerated to 2.0% yoy, up from 1.9% yoy, beat expectation of 1.9% yoy. CPI median slowed to 2.2% yoy, down from 2.3% yoy, missed expectation of 2.4% yoy. CPI trimmed slowed to 2.1% yoy, down from 2.2% yoy, missed expectation of 2.2% yoy.

          Full release here.

          UK business optimism at highest since 2014, largest positive swing on record

            According to CBI survey, UK business optimism jumped sharply to 23% in the three months to January, up from -4% in October. That’s the strongest level since April 2014. the 67% quarterly swing was also the largest on record since 1958.

            Anna Leach, CBI Deputy Chief Economist, said: “With business optimism improving at its fastest pace since 2014 and some of the squeeze on investment plans lifting, it’s clear manufacturers are entering the new year with a spring in their step. Firms are now planning to invest more in plants and machinery, which will ultimately help increase capacity and output.

            “However, this boost to sentiment belies poor trading conditions over the past quarter, with output and orders still declining. If we are to build on this rebound in optimism among UK manufacturers, it is crucial for the UK and EU to establish a trade deal that supports growth in this sector.”

            Full release here.

            Mnuchin: No deadline to phase 2 trade talks with China

              US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said there is “no deadline” to phase 2 trade negotiation with China. “The first issue that we’re very focused on in the next 30 days is implementing phase 1, then we’ll start on phase 2. “If we get that done before the election, great, if it takes longer, that’s fine,” he said.

              Mnuchin also added, “we could easily have phase two A, two B, two C, it doesn’t need to be a big bang, and we’ll take tariffs off along the way, so there is a big incentive for the Chinese to continue to negotiate and conclude various additional parts of the agreement.”

              Trump to announce very big middle class tax cut over the next 90 days

                US President Donald Trump told Fox Business that the administration is planning a “very big” middle-class tax cut. He said, “we are going to be doing a middle-class tax cut, a very big one. We’ll be doing that. We’ll be announcing that over the next 90 days.”

                On trade deals, “the China deal is amazing, we’ll be starting phase two very soon. The tariffs were left on Chinese goods because its good to negotiate for phase two.”

                At the same time, “the European Union is tougher to deal with than anybody. They’ve taken advantage of our country for many years,” said Trump. “Ultimately it will be very easy because if we can’t make a deal, we’ll have to put 25 percent tariffs on their cars.”

                UK to introduce digital tax in April, US threaten retaliation with auto tariffs

                  UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid insisted that UK will go ahead with the induction of digital tax in April. He said, at panel discussion at the Davos forum, “It is a proportionate tax, and a tax that is deliberately designed as a temporary tax. It will fall away when there is an international agreement.”

                  At the same discussion, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned “We think the digital tax is discriminatory in nature… if people want to just arbitrarily put taxes on our digital companies we will consider arbitrarily putting taxes on car companies”. “We’re going to have some private conversations about that… and I’m sure the President and Boris will be speaking on it as well”.

                  BoC to stand pat, CAD/JPY in consolidations

                    BoC rate decision is a major focus today, together with Canadian CPI. BoC is widely expected to keep policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. The central bank appeared to have downplayed some downside surprises in recent economic data. Risks of receded with US-China trade deal phase one and ratification of USMCA in US Congress. The test for resilience of the Canadian economy could be over for now, and need of insurance rate cut largely vanished. The next move would be very much data dependent.

                    Suggested previews on BoC:

                    CAD/JPY turned into consolidation after forming a short term top at 84.56 last week. At this point, further rally is still in favor as rise from 78.50 could extend to 85.23 resistance and above. However, structure of such rise is no clearly impulsive. 61.8% retracement of 78.50 to 83.55 from 81.28 was met without follow through buying. Upside momentum has been diminishing too as seen in daily MACD. Break of 82.80 support will suggest that such rise is completed, and turn outlook bearish for 81.28 support and below.

                    Canada Trudeau: Passing the new NAFTA is our priority

                      Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he will unveil the legislation on January 29 to ratify the USMCA. He noted, “we are going to make sure we move forward in the right way and that means ratifying this new NAFTA as quickly as possible”. “Passing the new NAFTA is our priority,” said Trudeau. “There are too many businesses relying on access to the U.S. market … it’s extremely important that we move forward with ratification and it’s our intention to move forward with this.”

                      However, the move by Trudeau’s minority Liberal government could be slowed down by main opposition. The Conservative Party spokesman Randy Hoback, “we definitely want to give it the proper due diligence to shine a light on some of the unique.” “I don’t think anybody has any intention of dragging anything out. We just want to make sure we do our job … there are some things in this deal that I think the business community isn’t aware of that we need to shine a light on.”

                      S&P 500 retreated on China’s Coroanvirus, but up trend not threatened

                        US stocks closed broadly lower overnight on the arrival of China’s coronavirus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first case in the US. In China, a physician physician who investigated the outbreak said he has himself been infected. China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention also warned that the new virus which killed nine people is adapting and mutating.

                        S&P 500 closed down -0.27% at 3320.79. Despite the pull back, there is no threat to the uptrend for now. As long as 3214.63 support holds, current up long term up trend is expected to extend to 100% projection of 1810.10 to 2940.91 from 2346. 58 at 3477.39 next.

                         

                        US Mnuchin to Italy and UK: Delay digital taxes or face tariffs

                          US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin urged Italy and UK to suspend their plans to impose digital taxes. Or “if not they’ll find themselves faced with President Trump’s tariffs.” The warning came after France agreed to delay digital tax imposition through the end of the year, as US and France would work out a permanent resolution.

                          Mnuchin also said that the phase two trade deal may not be a “big bang” with all existing tariffs removed. Instead, “we may do 2A and some of the tariffs come off. We can do this sequentially along the way.”

                          EU to lose USD 10.8B exports due to US-China trade deal, Germany hardest hit

                            The Kiel Institute for World Economy warned that US-China trade agreement is “significantly damaging” to the EU. Germany is “particularly affected”, and among the sectors, especially “aircraft and vehicle manufacturing.”  Gabriel Felbermayr, Kiel President, said, “the additional imports of US goods promised by China will divert imports from other countries.”

                            As calculated by Felbermayr and trade expert Sonali Chowdhry, EU exports to China will probably be USD 10.8B lower in 2021 compared with a scenario in which the agreement and the tariff war between China and the USA would not have existed. The EU would then have to bear about a sixth of the overall trade diversion caused by the agreement.

                            In absolute terms, the biggest losers in the EU are the manufacturers of aircraft (USD -3.7B), vehicles (USD -2.4B), and industrial machinery (USD – 1.4B). In terms of relative changes, the largest relative losses would again be in the aircraft sector (-28%), vehicles (-7%), and pharmaceutical products (-5%). “The affected industries are mainly located in Germany, but France has also been hit considerably”, says Felbermayr.

                            Full release here.

                            German ZEW jumped to 26.7, highest since July 2015

                              German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose sharply to 26.7 in January, up from 10.7, beat expectation of 15.2. That’s also the highest reading since July 2015. Current Situation Index rose to -9.5, up from -19.9, beat expectation of -12.4. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 25.6, up from 11.2, beat expectation of 16.3. Current Situation Index rose 4.8 pts to -9.9.

                              “The continued strong increase of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is mainly due to the recent settlement of the trade dispute between the USA and China. This gives rise to the hope that the trade dispute’s negative effects on the German economy will be less pronounced than previously thought. In addition, the German economy developed slightly better than expected in the previous year. Although the outlook has improved, growth is still expected to remain below average.,” comments ZEW President Achim Wambach.

                              Full release here.

                              UK unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8%, employment rate hit record high

                                UK unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8% in the three months to November, matched expectations. An estimated 1.31m people were unemployed. Employment rate increased jumped 0.5% on the quarter to 76.3%, a record high. Average earnings excluding bonus slowed to 3.4% 3moy, matched expectations. Average earnings including bonus was unchanged at 3.2% 3moy, missed expectations.

                                Full release here.

                                BoJ Kuroda: Benefits of our policy still exceed the costs

                                  In the regular post-meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said for now “the benefits of our policy still exceed the costs”. And the central bank will “continue to pursue powerful monetary easing to achieve 2% inflation.” Though, he added, “BOJ must be mindful of the impact prolonged ultra-low rates could have on financial intermediation.”

                                  Kuroda also noted that “progress in US-China trade talks and Brexit have led to an improvement in risk sentiment”. But “uncertainty remains on the “fate” of the US-China trade talks”. Plus, “there are also geopolitical risks in the Middle East”.

                                  “If the economy accelerates dramatically, there could be some debate. But for now, it’s appropriate to maintain our current policy stance. Various overseas risks remain, so the current monetary policy with an easy bias will be sustained for some time,” he said.

                                  BoJ stands pat, raises growth forecasts, lower inflation projections

                                    BoJ left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Under the yield curve control framework, short-term policy interest rate is held at -0.1%. Annual pace of monetary base expansion is held at around JPY 80T, to keep 10-year JGB yields at around zero percent. Harada Yutaka and Kataoka Goushi dissented again in 7-2 vote.

                                    In the new economic projections, fiscal 2020 growth forecast was raised from 0.7% to 0.9%. CPI core forecast (ex-sales tax hike) was lowered from 1.0% to 0.9%. For fiscal 2021, growth forecast was raised from 1.0% to 1.1%. CPI core forecast was lowered form 1.5% to 1.4%. BoJ added that risks to economic activity and prices are both “skewed to the downside”. Momentum toward achieving 2% inflation target is “maintained by is not yet sufficiently firm”.

                                    BoJ statement, outlook for economic activity and prices.

                                    Moody’s downgrades Hong Kong to Aa3 on weak government

                                      Moody’s cut Hong Kong’s credit rating by one notch to Aa3 yesterday. The ratings agency also changed the outlook to “stable” from “negative.” In a statement, Moody’s said “the absence of tangible plans to address either the political or economic and social concerns of the Hong Kong population that have come to the fore in the past nine months may reflect weaker inherent institutional capacity than Moody’s had previously assessed.”

                                      Protests in Hong Kong has now lasted for more than seven months. The first demand was met with the China extradition bill withdrawn after months of protests. Yet, there was no clear measures to address the rest of the “five demands” of the protesters. In particular, the government continuously refused to set up a commission of enquiry on policy brutality and corruption. In the meantime, there is increasing call for an independent and international inquiry into the Hong Kong police.

                                      In response to Moody’s downgrade, the HKSAR government said: “Although Hong Kong has faced the most severe social unrest since its return to the Motherland in the past seven months or so, the HKSAR Government, with the staunch support of the Central Government, has firmly upheld the ‘one country, two systems’ principle and handled the situation in accordance with the law to curb violence on its own to restore social order as soon as possible”.

                                      Asian stocks tumble on concern of coronavirus outbreak in China

                                        Asian stocks tumble broadly today on concern of an outbreak of a coronavirus in China, as well as other countries in the region. China’s National Health Commission already confirmed that the virus which causes a type of pneumonia, can pass from person-to-person. That couldn’t come at the worst time as massive number of people are expected to travel within China before Lunar New Year.

                                        According to a report by London Imperial College’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, it’s estimated that there were already over 1700 cases in Wuhan city by January 12. Such estimate was not commented by the Chinese authorities yet. But there were already cases reported by Thailand, Japan and South Korea, involving people from from Wuhan or who recently visited the city.

                                        The virus is believed to be in the same family of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed nearly 800 people during an outbreak in 2003, starting in China and spread to Hong Kong. The World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday that the primary source of the outbreak appeared to be an animal and some “limited human-to-human transmission” occurred between close contacts. WHO also called for an emergence committee on Wednesday to assess the situation.

                                        Hong Kong HSI is gaps lower today and is currently down more than -2%. Technically, a short term top is formed at 29174.92 and deeper pull back could be seen. Initial support is expected at around 55 day EMA (now at 27708). Rebound from 24899.93 could still extend higher. However, sustained break of the EMA would turn outlook bearish and HSI could head back towards 24899.93 support in that case.

                                        IMF downgrade growth forecast, sentiments boosted not yet visible in data

                                          In the update to World Economic Outlook, IMF lowered 2020 global growth forecast by -0.l% to 3.3%, and 2021 by -0.2% to 3.4%. Still, they represent pickup form 2019’s 2.9% growth. IMF also noted that the downward revision “primarily reflects negative surprises to economic activity in a few emerging market economies, notably India”.

                                          Meanwhile, market sentiment has been “boosted by “tentative signs that manufacturing activity and global trade are bottoming out, a broad-based shift toward accommodative monetary policy, intermittent favorable news on US-China trade negotiations, and diminished fears of a no-deal Brexit”. However, “few signs of turning points are yet visible in global macroeconomic data.”

                                          Here are some highlights:

                                          • World output: 2020 at 3.3% (revised down by -0.1%), 2021 at 3.4% (revised down by -0.2%).
                                          • Advanced economies: 2020 at 1.6% (-0.1%), 2021 at 1.6% (unchanged).
                                          • US: 2020 at 2.0% (-0.1%), 2021 at 1.7% (unchanged).
                                          • Eurozone: 2020 at 1.3% (-0.1%), 2021 at 1.4% (unchanged).
                                          • Germany: 2020 at 1.1% (-0.1%), 2021 at 1.4% (unchanged).
                                          • Japan: 2020 at 0.7% (+0.2%), 2021 at 0.5% (unchanged).
                                          • UK: 2020 at 1.4% (unchanged), 2021 at 1.5% (unchanged).
                                          • Canada: 2020 at 1.8% (unchanged), 2021 at 1.8% (unchanged).
                                          • China: 2020 at 6.0% (+0.2%), 2021 at 5.8% (-0.1%).
                                          • India: 2020 at 5.8% (-1.2%), 2021 at 6.5% (-0.9%).

                                          Full report here.