Gold may lose momentum above 2100 despite strong rally

    Gold accelerated sharply higher last week, propelled in part by the significant decline in US treasury yields on Friday. Technically, the key question now is whether the bounce from 1972.86 signifies the commencement of long-term uptrend resumption, or merely constitutes the second leg of the medium term corrective pattern from 2134.97.

    For now, favor is mildly on the latter case. Hence, while further rally is likely through 100% projection of 1972.86 to 2088.24 from 1984.05 at 2099.43, Gold should start to lose upside momentum above there, and top below 2134.97.

    Nevertheless, further upside acceleration above 2099.43, or around 2100 in short, would argue that Gold is already ready to resume the long term up trend.

    Asian update: Nikkei dropped to lowest since Sep 2017, Yen stays strongest for the week

      Risk aversion once again spread from US to Asian session. Nikkei closed down -1.11%, or 226.39 pts to 20166.19. That’s the lowest level since September 2017 and 20000 handle is now vulnerable. At the time of writing, China Shanghai SSE is down -1.3% at 2504. However, losses in Singapore Strait Times (-0.27%) and Hong Kong HSI (-0.03%) are relatively limited.

      Overnight, DOW lost -1.99% or -464.06pts to 22859.60. S&P 500% dropped -1.58% and NASDAQ dropped -1.63%. DOW is now pressing key support level at 38.2% retracement of 15450.56 to 26951.81 at 22558.33. There is prospect of some recovery before yearly close. But it has to overcome near term resistance at around 23500 before declaring bottoming.

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      On important development to note is that acceleration in flattening of US yield curve. Overnight, 5-year yield closed up 0.026 to 2.653. 10-year yield rose 0.011 to 2.789. More importantly, 30-year yield breached 3% handle to 2.957, then closed at 3.012, down -0.003. Meanwhile, yield curve remains inverted between 2-year (2.675) and 3-year (2.652).

      The currency markets are generally in range today. For the week, Yen remains the strongest one on risk aversion, followed by Euro. Commodity currencies are all in deep red.

      Nagel advocates gradual rate cuts as ECB nears neutral

        German ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel emphasized emphasized that ECB should avoid being on “autopilot” when determining the timing of interest rate cuts.

        Speaking at the London School of Economics, he stressed that as ECB approaches the neutral rate, a “gradual approach” becomes more appropriate. Given the current uncertainty, he argued, “there is no reason to act hastily.”

        Nagel remains confident that inflation will return to 2% target by mid-year, saying, “We are not at our target, but I’m really very convinced that we will come to our target by the midst of this year.” He also dismissed concerns of an inflation undershoot.

        Bundesbank staff estimates place the neutral interest rate within a range of 1.8% to 2.5%, slightly below ECB’s current deposit rate of 2.75%.

        However, Nagel warned against relying too heavily on neutral rate estimates, calling it “risky” to base monetary policy decisions on uncertain theoretical benchmarks. Instead, he emphasized that the ECB relies on a variety of financial, real-economic, and other indicators to guide its policy stance.

        ECB Lagarde: Progress with vaccinations should pave the way for firm rebound

          In the post meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that while Eurozone real GDP could have contracted again in Q1, data pointed to a “resumption of growth” in Q2. Progress with vaccinations, should “pave the way for a firm rebound in economic activity in the course of 2021”.

          Near-term risks on growth continue to be “on the downside, but medium-term risks remain “more balanced”. Headline inflation is “likely to increase further in the coming months”, reflecting “changing dynamics of idiosyncratic and temporary factors”. These factors can be expected to “fade out” early next year.

          Full opening remarks here.

          US ISM manufacturing dipped to 57.6, corresponds to 3.1% annualized GDP growth

            US ISM Manufacturing index dropped -1.2 pts to 57.6 in January, slightly better than expectatio nof 57.5. New orders dropped -3.1 to 57.9. Production dropped -1.6 to 57.8. Employment rose 0.6 to 54.5. Prices rose 7.9 to 76.1.

            ISM said: “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for January (57.6 percent) corresponds to a 3.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

            Full release here.

            Bundesbank said manufacturing orders literally collapsed, government said no need for stimulus for now

              In the April Monthly Report, Bundesbank said growth picked up only moderately in Q1. Also, the underlying momentum of expansion remained subdued as dragged down by manufacturing downturn. The description of the manufacturing sector are rather dramatic, as orders “literally collapsed” and mode has “significantly deteriorated”.

              Separately, German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said for now there is no need for a stimulus package to reinvigorate the economy. He emphasized Germany has a “very solid budget policy”. And, “we are coupling solid budgets with an increase in investments and this should in the coming years improve the basis for more growth.” Seibert added, “the budget stipulates investment spending that is significantly higher than in the previous legislative period and as such we see no need for a stimulus package.”

              UK PMI services finalized at 21-mth low

                UK PMI Services was finalized at 48.8 in October, down from September’s 50.0. PMI Composite was finalized at 48.2, down from prior month’s 49.1. Both readings were the lowest levels since January 2021.

                Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

                “UK service providers reported the steepest drop in business activity for 21 months in October as household spending cutbacks and shrinking business investment combined to dent new order volumes…

                “Stubbornly high inflation, increased borrowing costs and worries about the UK economic outlook all contributed to weaker business optimism in October… Aside from the slump at the start of the pandemic, the degree of confidence across the service economy is now the lowest since December 2008.”

                Full release here.

                BoJ minutes: Basic stance to continue with current monetary easing

                  BoJ has reaffirmed its commitment to continuing with its current monetary easing policy, including yield curve control, to achieve the price stability target, according to the minutes of its meeting in January 17-18.

                  One member noted that there is “still a long way to go to achieve the price stability target”, and thus the Bank should continue with the current monetary easing to firmly support the economy.

                  To encourage firms’ efforts with regard to business transformation until sustained wage increases can be expected, the Bank needs to “curb interest rate rises across the entire yield curve” while paying attention to the functioning of bond markets, according to another member.

                  Another member added that it was “inappropriate to rush to an exit” from the current monetary policy, as overseas economies were currently heading toward slowdowns.

                  However, one member recognized that “at some point in the future”, it will be necessary to examine and assess the balance between the positive effects and side effects of the current monetary easing policy.

                  The Bank’s “basic stance on its future conduct of monetary policy” is to “continue with the current monetary easing — including the conduct of yield curve control — and thereby achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner accompanied by wage increases,” the minutes read.

                  Full minutes here.

                  US initial jobless claims dropped to 217k

                    US initial jobless claims dropped -1k to 217k in the week ending October 29, slightly above expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -500 to 219k.

                    Continuing claims rose 47k to 1485k in the week ending October 22. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 30k to 1418k.

                    Full release here.

                    NFP in focus as Dollar index capped below 93.47 resistance

                      US Non-Farm Payrolls employment data will be the main event for today. Markets are expecting 1550k job growth in August, slightly down from July’s 1763k. Unemployment rate is expected to drop to 9.9%, down from 10.2%. Looking at other employment related data, ADP private employment was a big disappointment with just 428k growth. ISM Manufacturing employment edged higher by 2.1 pts to 46.4, but stayed in contraction. ISM Non-Manufacturing employment rose notably by 5.8 pts to 47.9, but also stayed in contraction. Jobless claims was a positive development though, with four-week moving average down from 1.34m to 992k.

                      Dollar’s reaction to NFP data is relatively uncertain. Dollar index’s down trend since March’s spike looks overstretched, with clear bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. Yet there has been no follow-through buying in the multiple rebound attempts in recent weeks. Break of 93.47 resistance is needed to be first sign of short term bottoming. In that case, we’d likely see a test on 44 day EMA (now at 94.43) at least.

                      New Zealand employment up 1% in Q2, wage inflation unchanged at 4.3% yoy

                        New Zealand reported a better-than-expected employment growth of 1.0% in the second quarter of 2023, surpassing market expectations of a 0.6% rise. On the other hand, unemployment rate slightly increased from 3.4% to 3.6%, marginally above the anticipated 3.5%.

                        The data released showed that employment rate rose from 69.6% to 69.8%, and the participation rate increased from 72.0% to 72.4%. These are the highest rates recorded since the series began in 1986.

                        In terms of wage growth, all sector wage inflation climbed by 1.1% on a quarterly basis, resulting in an annual increase of 4.3%. “Annual wage costs continued to increase at historically high rates this quarter, equal to the 4.3 percent annual increase last quarter,” said Bryan Downes, business prices delivery manager.

                        Downes noted that the most significant contribution to the Labour Cost Index for the June 2023 quarter came from retail trade and accommodation industry. This sector witnessed 1.5% increase in wages on a quarterly basis, following 0.7% rise in the previous quarter. The wage growth in this industry was primarily driven by rise in minimum wage, thereby pushing up overall wage growth during the quarter.

                        Full New Zealand employment release here.

                        Swiss KOF dropped to 95.0, negative developments in manufacturing and services

                          Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped for he fourth time in a row to 95.0 in January, below expectation of 98.1. It’s now 5pts below its long term average.

                          KOF noted that “The downward tendency that emerged at the end of last year continues. The economic outlook for Switzerland continues to dampen at the beginning of 2019”. And, “this renewed decline is especially attributable to negative developments within the manufacturing industry and the service industry. In addition, export prospects cloud over.”

                          Full release here.

                          UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 51.5, confidence drops and price pressures rise

                            UK manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace in September, with the PMI finalizing at 51.5, down from 52.5 in August.

                            According to Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the sector continues to expand at a “solid, albeit slightly slower, pace,” supported by steady domestic demand. However, growing concerns are emerging, as business confidence for the year ahead has dropped to its lowest level in nine months.

                            The decline in optimism was notable, with only March 2020, just before COVID lockdowns, seeing a sharper fall. Uncertainty surrounding government policy ahead of the Autumn Budget is weighing heavily on sentiment, alongside broader concerns about global geopolitical risks and economic growth risks.

                            Inflationary pressures have intensified, with input cost inflation reaching a 20-month high. Manufacturers are being forced to raise prices as a result, with rising freight costs cited as a major contributor. Ongoing supply chain disruptions, driven by the Red Sea crisis and global conflicts, are exacerbating these price increases, keeping inflationary pressures elevated across the sector.


                            Full UK PMI manufacturing final release here.

                            BoJ Kuroda: Some steps remaining for government on fiscal reforms

                              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda spoke to the parliament today and hailed that the government has made significant progress on fiscal reforms. And, there is “some lagbefore the steps already taken begin to affect the economy”.

                              But he also emphasized that there are “still some steps remaining that the government needs to take on structural reform and growth strategy.”

                              US durable goods orders rises 2.6% mom in Mar, ex-transport orders up 0.2% mom

                                US durable goods orders rose 2.6% mom to USD 283.4B in March, above expectation of 2.5% mom. Ex-transport orders rose 0.2% mom to USD 187.5B, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 2.3% mom to USD 268.1B, above expectation of 2.0% mom. Transportation equipment orders rose 7.7% to USD 95.9B.

                                Full US durable goods orders release here.

                                Into US session: Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar weakest

                                  Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc are the clearly weaker ones in a slow day, in terms of price actions. Sterling and Euro are the strongest but their strength is far from being convincing. For now, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are staying in familiar range. While Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar fall against the greenback, both are held above near term support level at 0.7728 and 1.2975 respectively. It looks like Dollar traders are refusing to commit ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate hike and economic projections.

                                  In other markets, European stock indices are slightly higher today with DAX up 0.17% and CAC up 0.21% at the time of writing. FTSE is displaying some strength as it opened lower and dripped to 7455.22 but it’s now back pressing 7500 handle, up 0.55%. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei closed up 0.29% and Singapore Strait Times rose 0.53%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -1.62% to close at 27499.39. WTI crude oil continues this week’s rally and is up 0.5% at 72.44 for now. Gold is still gyrating in tight range around 1200 handle.

                                  BoJ downgrades economic assessments of three regions

                                    In the latest Regional Economic Report, BoJ downgraded the assessments of three regions, Hokuriku, Tokai and Chugoku. Nevertheless, all nine regions reported that “their economy had been either expanding or recovering.”

                                    “The background to this was that domestic demand, in terms of such items as business fixed investment and private consumption, had continued on an uptrend, with a virtuous cycle from income to spending operating in both the corporate and household sectors, although exports, production, and business sentiment had shown some weakness, mainly affected by the slowdown in overseas economies and natural disasters.”

                                    Earlier today, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that “we will adjust policy as necessary to maintain momentum toward our price stability target while examining risks… We will not hesitate to take additional easing steps if risks heighten to an extent that the momentum toward the price target is undermined.”

                                    Full report here.

                                    Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose to -13.4

                                      Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose to -13.4 in August, up from -18.3, beat expectation of -15.2. It’s also the fourth increase in a row, and highest since February. Current Situation index rose to -41.3, up from -49.5, highest since March. Expectations, however, dropped slightly to 19.3, down from 19.5.

                                      Sentix said: “If one compares the development of the current situation following the financial crisis in 2009 with the recovery movement of the sentix economic indices this year, it is noticeable that the recovery of the current situation is very similar in terms of both level and timing. At that time, the expectations were also the first to rise. For a long time, the current situation values bobbed in the deep red range. It was not until summer 2009 that the economic indicators began to recover. The path in 2020 is now very similar, giving rise to the fantasy that the low point has definitely been passed and that the initiated recovery can continue.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Mid-US Session Update: Dollar resumes rally against EUR, GBP, AUD; European Indices closed in red

                                        Dollar surges broadly in the first half of US session. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD all resumes recent fall after brief consolidations. Dollar is trading in red against Canadian and New Zealand Dollar. But we can disregard Kiwi as it’s just merely digesting recent loss.

                                        The key is whether USD/CAD has completed the rebound from 1.2961. With 1.3035 minor support intact, we’re staying bullish in the pair and expect another rise through 1.3170 to 1.3289 resistance.

                                        Besides, USD/JPY remains an interesting pair to watch. We’re treading the fall from 113.17 as a corrective. That is, we’re bullish in the pair. A break of 111.17 resistance will affirm our view and bring a test on 112.14 resistance. That would also indicate that Dollar is finally taking the control back from Yen.

                                        In other markets:

                                        • DAX closed flat at 12358.87, up 0.13 pts, 0.00%
                                        • CAC closed at 5403.41, down -8.891 pts, -0.16%
                                        • FTSE closed at 7611.634, down -30.81 pts, -0.40%.

                                        US indices perform well. At the time of writing

                                        • DOW is up 0.46%
                                        • S&P 500 is up 0.68%
                                        • NASDAQ is up 0.72%
                                        • 10 year yield up 0.0073 at 2.889

                                        Today’s top mover: GBP/NZD got strong support from 1.8130 fib level, heading back to 1.9020

                                          Sterling is without a doubt a star today. The triggering of the no-confidence of vote on UK PM Theresa May turns out to be a blessing for her, as well as the pound. More and more MPs turn out to support May as the ballot at 1800-2000 GMT approaches. And we tend to agree with Environment Secretary Michael Gove that May would win the leadership challenge “handsomely”. That will give her a strong position to go to EU summit tomorrow, to get the “assurances” she need to push the Brexit agreement through the Commons. We’ll see how it goes in a few hours, but things are looking positive.

                                          For now, GBP/NZD is the biggest mover today, a loser this time, as NZD’s rebound also lost steam. It turns out that 61.8% retracement of 1.6684 to 2.0469 at 1.8130 is a rather tough support level to beat, opposite to what we’ve expected here. It’s a bit early to declare, but considering that daily MACD is turning up, fall from 2.0469 should have at least made a short term bottom at 1.8125.

                                          We’d now expect stronger rebound to 1.8634. Firm break there will confirm this case and bring further rise to 38.2% retracement of 2.0469 to 1.8125 at 1.9020. Reaction from 1.9020 will reveal how deep the fall from 2.0469 would develop into.