ECB Rehn: Essential for EU to come with with a convincing coronavirus package

    ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said it’s “essential” EU would come up with a “convincing package” tomorrow to “mitigate the economic effects of the crisis, especially for the weakest countries.” He warned that “the future of Europe as a political community is also at stake.” The difficulties caused by the coronavirus pandemic are “not due to any single country’s reckless management of finances,” he added. ” It is therefore necessary to support the most severely hit countries.”

    Rehn also noted that a “joint solution” is likely to be found by using EU’s “budget framework rather than through joint loans.” “Joint European solutions are also in Finland’s interest because our own economy, too, is highly dependent on the European economy’s development and recovery. Alone we can boost our domestic demand but not exports,” he added.

    As for ECB, “we will continue to monitor the situation and stand ready to adjust all of our measures, as appropriate,” he said.

    UK PMI composite jumped to 53, near-term recession odds fallen considerably

      UK PMI Manufacturing rose from 47.0 to 49.2 in February, a 7-month high. PMI Services rose sharply from 48.7 to 53.3, an 8-month high. PMI Composite jumped from 48.5 to 53.0, an 8-month high.

      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Much better than anticipated PMI data for February indicate encouraging resilience of the economy in the face of headwinds which include rising interest rates, the ongoing cost of living crisis, labour shortages and strikes…

      “However, while the data suggest that near-term recession odds have fallen considerably, elevated inflation pressures clearly remain a concern, especially in the service sector. As such, the resilience of the economy and the stickiness of the survey’s inflation gauges add to the likelihood of the Bank of England tightening policy further, and potentially more aggressively, which may dampen future growth expectations and suggests that the possibility of recession later in the year should not be ruled out.”

      Full release here.

      NZ GDP contracted -0.6% qoq in Q4, RBNZ may slow tightening

        New Zealand’s Q4 GDP contracted by -0.6% qoq, missing the expected contraction of 0.2% qoq. The primary industries fell by 1.3%, service industries were down by 0.1%, and goods-producing industries were down by 0.3%.

        Although the Finance Minister Grant Robertson acknowledged that the GDP could fluctuate as the country continues to recover from COVID, he also highlighted that the economy is nearly 6.7% larger than pre-pandemic levels, outpacing other countries.

        Despite this, the GDP figure is significantly below RBNZ’s forecast of 0.7% growth, suggesting that the central bank may not need to be as aggressive with its tightening in the future. As a result, economists are now predicting that the RBNZ will opt for a more modest 25bps rate hike in April instead of the previously expected 50bps.

        Full GDP release here.

        US initial jobless claims rose to 261k, highest since Oct 2021

          US initial jobless claims rose 28k to 261k in the week ending June 3, well above expectation of 235k. That’s also the highest level since October 30, 2021, when it was 264k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 7.5k to 237k.

          Continuing claims dropped -37k to 1757k in the week ending May 27. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -12.5k to 1785k.

          Full US jobless claims release here.

          Fed Mester: No reason to have a smaller hike than 75bps

            Cleveland President Loretta Mester told Bloomberg TV yesterday, the June inflation report was “uniformly bad”. “There was no good news in that report at all,” she said. “We at the Fed have to be very deliberate and intentional about continuing on this path of raising our interest rate until we get and see convincing evidence that inflation has turned a corner.”

            “Certainly the inflation report suggests that there’s no reason to say that a smaller rate increase than we did last time, right, because nothing moved in that direction,” she added.

            Asked if a 100bps hike is appropriate this month, Mester said, “We’re going to have the meeting and we’re going to talk about what the appropriate path of policy is. We don’t have to make a decision today.”

            France PMI indicates softening in private sector growth again

              France PMI manufacturing dropped to sharply to 53.6 in March, down from 55.9 and missed expectation of 55.6.

              France PMI services dropped to 56.8, down from 57.4 and missed expectation of 57.0.

              Markit titled the release as “Private sector growth softens again, but remains marked“.

              Quote from the release by Alex Gill, Economist at IHS Markit:

              “Growth slowed in the French private sector economy during March, with the headline composite output figure down for the second successive month. At 56.2, however, the rate of expansion remained elevated by historical levels, while the Q1 average of 57.7 is consistent with a robust GDP number.

              “Strong client demand in both domestic and foreign markets continues to support output and employment. Meanwhile, a further robust degree of business confidence combined with a sharp and accelerated accumulation of outstanding business suggests further growth in the coming months.”

              Fed Waller: Front-load it, get it done

                Fed Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday, “It’s time to raise rates now when the economy can take it. Front-load it, get it done, and then we can judge how the economy is proceeding later, and if we have to do more, we’re going to do more.”

                “The labor market is strong. The economy is doing so well,” he said. “This is the time to hit it if you think there’s going to be any kind of negative reaction, because the economy can take it.”

                Bundesbank Nagel: Further clear steps must follow if inflation stays the same

                  Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in a radio interview on Sunday that last week’s 75bps hike was a “clear sign and if the inflation picture stays the same, further clear steps must follow.”

                  He added that inflation may peak at more than 10% in December. “In the course of 2023, the inflation picture is likely to weaken somewhat,” he said. Still, the rate “is likely to be at a far-too-high level of over 6%.”

                  While there “currently are some indications that the economy could stagnate or even contract in the second half of 2022 and that this trend could continue into next year, any recession may be shallow,” Nagel added.

                  “In the end, stable prices are much more important for medium-term, long-term growth, for a good outlook for the euro area,” he said. “We may need to overcome a dry spell, but for now at least it looks like this dry spell and the decline in economic output will not be severe.”

                  BoC Macklem: A complete recovery will still take some time

                    BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told a Senate Committee yesterday that “economy recovery is making good progress”. But “a complete recovery will still take some time”. He reiterated that BoC “remains steadfast in its commitment to support Canadian households and businesses through the full length of the recovery”.

                    A “complete recovery” means a “healthy job market”, while companies are “investing to seize new business opportunities. Also, households and businesses can “count on inflation being sustainably at our 2 percent target”.

                    Macklem also reiterated: ‘Looking ahead, further adjustments to the pace of net purchases will be guided by our ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the economic recovery. If the recovery evolves in line with or stronger than our latest projection, the economy won’t need as much QE stimulus over time.”

                    Full statement here.

                    US initial jobless claims dropped to 326k, below expectations

                      US initial jobless claims dropped -38k to 326k in the week ending October 2, below expectation of 349k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 3.5k to 344k.

                      Continuing claims dropped -97k to 2714k in the week ending September 25, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -34.5k to 2765k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone goods exports rose 12.6% yoy in Apr, imports rose 39.4% yoy

                        Eurozone goods exports rose 12.6% yoy in April to EUR 223.9B. Imports rose 39.4% yoy to EUR 256.4B. Trade deficit came in at EUR -32.4B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 20.8% yoy to EUR 212.1B.

                        In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 1.5% mom to EUR 229.7B. Imports rose 7.1% mom to EUR 261.4%. Trade deficit widened to EUR -31.7B, much larger than expectation of EUR -14.5B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose slightly from 211.2B to 215.1B.

                        Full release here.

                        Johnson’s Brexit deal approved by Commons in principle, timetable rejected

                          UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson got the backing from Commons on his Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill in principle (second reading), with 329 to 299 votes. However, more MPs were against the ultra tight timetable to complete the legislative process. They believed that more time is needed to scrutinize the details, than just three days of debate. The schedule for the bill was voted down by 322 to 308 votes.

                          Another Brexit delay beyond October 31 looks inevitably needed. But Johnson refused to commit to that yet. He said after the votes “let me be clear: our policy remains that we should not delay, that we should leave the EU on Oct. 31 and that is what I will say to the EU and I will report back to the House”.

                          Hours later, European Council President Donald Tusk tweeted that he will recommend the EU27 to accept UK request for extension. And he will propose a written procedure, i.e., without another emergency summit.

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                          Sterling weakens slightly after the news. GBP/USD’s retreat from 1.3012 might extend lower. But there is no indication of reversal yet.

                          Japan industrial production rose 2.9%, strongest since Jan 2015

                            Japan industrial production rose strongly by 2.9% mom in October, way above expectation of 1.2% mom. It’s also more than enough to reverse the -0.4% mom contraction in September. Besides, it’s the fastest month-on-month gain since January 2015. Nevertheless, it’s noted by economists that the strong reading was mainly a reaction to supply-chain disruptions caused by natural disasters. The rebound should be considered a one-off and outlook remains dim ahead on global slowdown.

                            Also from Japan, unemployment rate edged up to 2.4% in October, above expectation of 2.3%. Tokyo CPI core was unchanged at 1.0% yoy in November, matched expectations.

                            Release in Asian session, China PMI manufacturing dropped -0.2 to 50 in November. PMI non-manufacturing dropped -0.5 to 53.4. Australia Private sector credit rose 0.4% mom in October. New Zealand building permits rose 1.5% mom in October. UK Gfk consumer sentiment dropped -2 to -13 in November.

                            ECB Lagarde: Stay the course is my mantra for monetary-policy purposes

                              ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “We have to also stay that course of resilience that we observed in 2022. Stay the course is my mantra for monetary-policy purposes.”

                              “I hope that in 2023 fiscal policy will not work in a counter-cyclical way to monetary policy,” she said. “We don’t need to be pushed to do more than is necessary.”

                              Lagarde also noted that China’s reopening “will have inflationary pressure on many of us, simply because the level of energy that was consumed by China last year was certainly less than what they will consume this year, the amount of LNG that [they] will be buying from the rest of the world will be higher than what we have seen and there is not so much spare capacity in terms of oil and gas.”

                              “So there will be constraints, there will be more inflationary pressure coming out of that added demand,” she added.

                              UK GDP down -0.5% mom in Jul, dragged by services contraction

                                UK GDP contracted -0.5% mom in July, much worse than expectation of -0.2% mom. Services was down -0.5% mom, the main contributor to the fall in GDP. Production fell by -0.7% mom. Construction fell by -0.5% mom.

                                In the three months to July compared with the prior three-month period, GDP increased by 0.2%. Production rose 0.6%, and was the main contributing sector. Services and construction both rose by 0.1%.

                                Also released, industrial production came in at -0.7% mom, 0.4% yoy in July, versus expectation of -0.5% mom, 0.5% yoy. Manufacturing was at -0.8% mom, 3.0% yoy, versus expectation of -0.9% mom, 2.7% yoy. Goods trade deficit narrowed to GBP -14.1B, versus expectation of GBP -15.9B.

                                Full UK GDP release here.

                                Fed George: Interest rate to be in neighborhood of 2% by Aug

                                  Kansas City Fed President Esther George said, “I expect that further rate increases could put the federal funds rate in the neighborhood of 2% by August, a significant pace of change in policy settings”. Then, “evidence that inflation is clearly decelerating will inform judgments about further tightening.”

                                  “The inflation we are now experiencing is obviously both too high and too broad to dismiss. The central bank’s job is to prevent persistent imbalances from feeding into inflation and unmooring inflation expectations,” she said. “By influencing interest rates, the Federal Reserve primarily affects the demand side of the imbalance. The evolution of its efforts alongside other factors will affect the course of monetary policy, requiring continuous and careful monitoring.”

                                  Japan tankan capex surged, PMI manufacturing improved

                                    Economic data released from Japan today are not bad. Based on the results of the Tankan survey, it’s unlikely for BoJ to ease monetary further. Yet, it’s not time for the central bank to start stimulus exit too.

                                    • Large manufacturing index was unchanged at 19 versus expectation of a drop to 17.
                                    • Large manufacturing outlook dropped notably by -4 to 15, missed expectation of 16.
                                    • Large non-manufacturing index rose 2pts to 24, above expectation of 21.
                                    • Large non-manufacturing outlook also rose 2pts to 24, above expectation of 20.
                                    • Large all industry capex rose 14.3% in Q4, beat expectation of 12.7%.

                                    PMI manufacturing improved to 52.4, up from 52.2 and beat expectation of 52.3. Markit noted that “new order growth accelerates despite exports declining to sharpest extent in over two years”. However, “business confidence drops for seventh straight month to lowest since October 2016”.

                                    Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, said in the release that “Japan’s manufacturing sector closed 2018 with a strong finish.” But the data also “bring some cautious undertones to the fore,”. In particular “Export orders declined at the fastest pace in over two years, while total demand picked up only modestly. Confidence also continued to fall, a seventh straight month in which this has now occurred.” He added “the prospects heading into 2019 ahead of the sales tax hike still appear skewed to the downside.”

                                    ECB preview; EUR/AUD to break 1.5591 support

                                      ECB meeting is a focus today but it’s likely to be non-eventful. Monetary policy should be left unchanged. Following the recalibration in December, ECB would leave the size of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) at EUR 1850B and that of the Asset Purchase Program (APP), its traditional QE program, EUR 20B per month. The deposit rate will also stay unchanged at -0.5%. Some attention will be on policymakers’ view on recent Euro strength, discussions on QE tapering and economic impacts of renewed lockdown.

                                      Here are some previews:

                                      Euro is under some pressure this week along with Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc. It’s clearly overwhelmed by the power in commodity currencies, on broad based risk-on sentiment. EUR/CAD has taken out 1.5313 support yesterday to resume the decline from 1.5978. EUR/AUD is a focus today, on when (more than whether) it would break through 1.5591 support to resume the down trend from 1.9799. Next near term target is 161.8% projection of 1.6827 to 1.6144 from 1.6420 at 1.5315.

                                      Philadelphia Fed Harker expects three hikes this year on “some firming of inflation”

                                        Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said in a WSJ interview that he now expects three Fed rate hike this year. Harker is seen as on the dovish side of the spectrum as he previously projected just two hikes in 2018.

                                        He pointed to “some firming of inflation” as he reason for the upgrade is his own forecast. He also clarified that he placed more emphasis on inflation than fiscal policy.

                                        And to us, this could be a hint on a major difference between Fed’s hawks and doves. The hawks anticipate the growth and inflation impact of the tax cut and other policies. Meanwhile, seeing is believing for the doves.

                                        Nonetheless, Harker also sounded cautious on trade tensions. He noted that risk of increasing trade tariffs as a source of uncertainty for both economic projections and monetary policy.

                                        Australia Treasurer Kennedy: We’re pretty close to unemployment peak

                                          Australian Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy said the peak of unemployment “would come through in these months in April and May”. He told a senate committee, “we’d be pretty close to it would be my guess”. Though, “in a measured sense, the unemployment rate may well rise between May and June because of the switch between out of the workforce and back into the workforce.”

                                          He added that “we’ve gone well past the world recession” but it’s hard to predict if a depression was looming. Return of consumer and business confidence was the hardest part of forecasting the recovery. And, “the question is whether you’ve avoided the destructive cycles of firms going broke because they just ran out of cash.”