Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 53.2 in May, services rose to 51.7

    Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly from 53.5 to 53.2 in May, below expectation of 53.8. PMI services rose from 50.7 to 51.7. PMI Composite ticked up from 51.1 to 51.4.

    Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

    “”Private sector firms reported that the reduced impact of COVID-19 had lifted services activity, most notably in the tourism sector as pandemic-related restrictions were eased further. That said, the renewed introduction of lockdown measures across China and economic sanctions placed on Russia amid the Ukraine war had exacerbated supply chain disruptions, with greater reports of material shortages and severe delivery delays.

    “As a result, there was a further intensification in price pressures across the private sector, as firms reported series-record rises in both input and output prices. Moreover, uncertainty regarding the outlook for price and supply conditions dampened business confidence, which was at its softest since August 2021.”

    Full release here.

    ECB Hansson: Rather risky to be more precise in forward guidance now

      ECB Governing Council member Ardo Hansson said urged not to be more specific on forward guidance yet. He said “To be any more precise than that, to lock in a date, to tie our hands would be rather risky”. Instead, “when we get closer, we can have another discussion if we need to adjust the language again, but this is not a debate we are going to have just yet.”

      Separately, another Governing Council member Olli Rehn “core inflation is still rather weak in the euro zone at around 1 percent, as it has been for the last couple of years, so an accommodative monetary policy is still needed in Europe.”

      BoE Carney: Sterling volatility at emerging market levels

        BoE Governor Mark Carney noted that volatility of Pound’s exchange rate is now at “emerging market levels” and has “decoupled from other advanced economy pairs for obvious reasons”. Also, he warned that “a variety of other indicators show financial markets are going to move substantially in one way or another depending on the outcome of” Brexit.

        Carney also said yield curve inversion is not a “vote of confidence in the economic outlook. Both yield curves in US and UK have inverted for a while.

        Japan’s PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.9, deeper contraction and higher input inflation

          Japan’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 47.9 in December, down from November’s 48.3, marking the most significant sector contraction since February 2023. S&P Global reports that this downturn was characterized by notable declines in both production and new orders, alongside rise in input price inflation. Despite these challenges, there was an unexpected increase in business confidence, reaching a five-month high.

          Paul Smith from S&P Global Market Intelligence noted, “Market uncertainty led to reduced orders and output, especially from key export clients in China, Europe, and North America.” He also mentioned specific struggles in the electronics sector and a general lack of investment.

          However, Smith acknowledged increased cost pressures, with input price inflation at a three-month high due to more expensive raw materials, particularly imports.

          Looking ahead, Smith conveyed optimism among Japanese manufacturers, expecting an end to client destocking and predicting that new product launches will boost production in 2024.

          Full Japan PMI Manufacturing final release here.

          Into US session: Sterling recovers from GDP blip, Euro and Dollar firm too

            Entering into US session, Sterling is trading as the strongest one for today so far. Weaker than expected UK GDP triggered very brief retreat in the Pound. And Sterling quickly find its footing on Brexit optimism again. At the time of writing, Euro is the second strongest as Italian yield drops for another day. The selling climax in Italian bonds could have passed the climax for the near, possibly until credit agency rating actions. Dollar trades mildly high as consolidative price actions extend. Yen is the weakest one as sentiments stabilized and turned mixed. Kiwi is the second weakest, followed by Loonie.

            In Europe, CAC leads the way down by -0.71%, DAX is down -0.64% and FTSE is down -0.05%. Italian 10 year yield is dropping -0.0361 at 3.475. German 10 year bund yield is up 0.0049 at 0.556. German-Italian spread is no back below 300. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.16%, Hong Kong HSI rose 0.08%, China Shanghai SSE rose 0.18%. But Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.11%. 10 year JGB yield dropped -0.0065 to 0.156, still way above BoJ’s allowed band of -0.1 to 0.1%.

            New Zealand unemployment dropped to record low 3.4% in Q3

              New Zealand employment rose 2.0% qoq in Q3, much better than expectation of 0.4% qoq. Growth was largely driven by full-time jobs, which increased 2.3% qoq or 50k, while part-time jobs dropped slightly. Unemployment rate dropped sharply from 4.0% to 3.4%, better than expectation of 3.9%. The total employment matched the lowest level on record, reached last time in 2007. Labor force participation rate rose 0.7% to 71.2%.

              “The fall in the unemployment rate is in line with reports of difficulty finding workers and high labour turnover, and continued travel restrictions on international arrivals, which put pressure on domestic labour supply,” work and wellbeing statistics senior manager Becky Collett said.

              Full release here.

              ECB Lagarde: Inflation make-up strategies could be examined

                ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech that a”wider discussion today” among central banks is whether they should “commit to explicitly make up for inflation misses when they have spent quite some time below their inflation goals.”

                “If credible, such a strategy can strengthen the capacity of monetary policy to stabilise the economy when faced with the lower bound,” she said. “Promise of inflation overshooting raises inflation expectations and therefore lowers real interest rates.”

                “While make-up strategies may be less successful when people are not perfectly rational in their decisions – which is probably a good approximation of the reality we face – the usefulness of such an approach could be examined,” she added.

                Full speech here.

                ECB consumer survey: Inflation expectations up, growth expectations down

                  In ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey, consumers’ mean perceived inflation over the past 12 months increased markedly from May’s 8.2% to June’s 8.6%. Median inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months rose from 6.6% to 7.2%.

                  Mean inflation expectations for 12 month ahead rose from 6.3% to 6.6%. Median inflation expectations for 12 months ahead rose from 4.9% to 5.0%.

                  Mean economic growth expectations for the next 12 months dropped from -1.0% to -1.3%. Median economic growth expectations was unchanged at 0%.

                  Full release here.

                  Fed Williams: Negative rates don’t make sense given the situation

                    New York Fed President John Williams dismissed the idea of negative rates again and said “we have other tools that I think are more effective and more powerful to stimulate the economy”. He added, “I don’t think negative rates is something that makes sense given the situation we’re in because we have these other tools that can be used,” referring to the low interest rates, forward guidance and the balance sheet. Regarding the economy, “over time, the biggest question mark is how the consumer is going to behave,” Williams said. “How long will people take to really want to take advantage of tourism and other things.”

                    Separately, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he expected growth in H2 and 2021. His forecasts are based on assumption that consumers would travel, eat out and broadly re-engage in the economy again. But risks are to the downside if the US doesn’t ramp up coronavirus testing. His baseline is that unemployment rate would fall to 10-11% by year-end and dip further to below 7% by end of 2021.

                    ECB Simkus: My choice is 75bps for next hike

                      ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said he choice for the next rate hike is 75, adding that “a couple of options may be on the table but 50 is the minimum.” He indicated that ECB should target “as soon as possible” on reducing its balance sheet.

                      At the same event another Governing Council member Madis Muller said “inflation calls for significant rate hikes,” but it’s “too early to say how much in basis points.”

                      Also Governing Count member Mario Council said, “Right now frontloading other debates may in my opinion have a destabilizing effect that we really need to avoid. We have a path towards normalization of monetary policy and that’s the focus right now.”

                      Fed Waller: I am prepared for a longer fight to get inflation down

                        Fed Christopher Waller said in a speech that while some believe that inflation will come down quite quickly this year, “I’m not seeing signals of this quick decline in the economic data”.

                        “I am prepared for a longer fight to get inflation down to our target,” he added.

                        “Though we have made progress reducing inflation, I want to be clear today that the job is not done,” Waller said.

                        “It might be a long fight, with interest rates higher for longer than some are currently expecting. But I will not hesitate to do what is needed to get my job done.”

                        Full speech here.

                        Into US session: Dollar fails to hold gains, Yen stays firm

                          Entering into US session, Dollar turned weak earlier today and failed to sustain gains. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen is holding broadly firm. Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar turned the corner. Much focus will be on US treasury yields and some solid gain there is needed to give the greenback some support. Otherwise, recent correction will likely continue with some more downside potential in the greenback.

                          In other markets, Europe indices are trading generally higher, with DAX up 1.34%, CAC up 0.81% and FTSE up 0.81% at the time of writing. That follows the strong rally in Asian equities. China Shanghai Composite jumped 1.61% to 2905.56 as boosted by the governments stimulus policies. While the announce measures are just fine-tunings and are hardly anything dramatic, that’s seen as a sign of the director where the Chinese government is heading towards. That is do more to support growth.

                          The SSE’s rebound is set to extend to 55 day EMA (now at 2944.64) and above. But for now, we’re seeing no reason for it to regain 3000 handle.

                          Nikkei also rose 0.51% to close at 22510.48 and pared back much of Monday’s loss. However, the day high was seen at the open at 22555.05 and there was no follow through momentum back then. Overall strength of support from the 55 day EMA is rather weak. We’ll keep monitor this level, which will decide whether Nikkei would head for test on 21462.94 support before an upside breakout.

                          SECO downgrades Swiss 2021 GDP forecast to 3.2%

                            SECO downgraded Swiss GDP growth forecast to 3.2% in 2021, comparing to June forecast of 3.6%. Growth is projected to further accelerate to 3.4% in 2022. It added that “the economic recovery is set to continue as expected, though growth is initially less dynamic than forecast previously.” Nevertheless, “economic activity is likely to have exceeded pre-crisis levels during the summer.”

                            SECO added, “highly exposed sectors such as international tourism are likely to emerge from the crisis more hesitantly”. But, “provided that severely restrictive measures such as business lockdowns are not imposed in the coming months, the economic recovery should continue uninterrupted.”

                            Full release here.

                            Trump holds WTO hostage to request for improvements

                              While meeting with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in Washington, US President Donald Trump issued fresh warning to the WTO. When asked is he’s preparing to pull out of the WTO, Trump said it has treated the US “very, very badly and I hope they change their ways”. He added that the US has a “a big disadvantage with the WTO. And we’re not planning anything now, but if they don’t treat us properly, we’ll be doing something,” That came after earlier report Axios, based on unnamed source, that Trump has completed to his officials “I don’t know why we’re in it. The WTO is designed by the rest of the world to screw the United States.”

                              In an CNBC interview, Tony Fratto, deputy press secretary under President George W. Bush, blasted the idea of leaving WTO. He said, “to say that the United States is a loser in a WTO world is just completely inaccurate. We created the WTO as the dominant economy in the world to serve our interests.” While improvements are needed, there are better ways than “to hold it hostage and to threaten to pull out of it.” And He added that pulling out of WTO is a “ridiculous idea”.

                              On the other hand, former Trump advisor Dan DiMicco also told CNBC that “If the WTO can’t be any more effective than it has been the last 20 years … then the WTO is not helping the world trading system, it’s hurting it, and we should be prepared to walk away.”

                              US CPI slowed to 8.3% yoy, core CPI rose to 6.3% yoy

                                US CPI rose 0.1% mom in August, after being flat in July, above expectation of -0.1% mom decline. Core CPI rose 0.6% mom, larger than prior month’s 0.3% mom, and higher than expectation of 0.3% mom. Energy declined -5.0% mom while food index rose 0.8% mom.

                                For the 12 months ending August, CPI slowed from 8.5% yoy to 8.3% yoy, above expectation of 8.1% yoy. CPI core accelerated from 5.9% yoy to 6.3% yoy, above expectation of 6.0% yoy. Energy rose 23.8% yoy, slowed from 32.9% yoy. Food rose 11.4% yoy, largest 12-month increase since May 1979.

                                Full release here.

                                ECB de Cos: Recent inflation data are somewhat encouraging

                                  ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said, “recent data on euro area inflation and some of its key determinants are somewhat encouraging, but the overall situation still requires caution”.

                                  But he added that the evidence so far was very preliminary. Careful monitoring is required in some areas, including residual pass-through of inflation shocks, and the symmetry of pass-through of energy price delcines to core inflation and wages, as well ass the effects of Chinese reopening.

                                  “All these will have to be assessed as part of the full projections exercise under way in the run-up to our March meeting,” De Cos said.

                                  EU to lose USD 10.8B exports due to US-China trade deal, Germany hardest hit

                                    The Kiel Institute for World Economy warned that US-China trade agreement is “significantly damaging” to the EU. Germany is “particularly affected”, and among the sectors, especially “aircraft and vehicle manufacturing.”  Gabriel Felbermayr, Kiel President, said, “the additional imports of US goods promised by China will divert imports from other countries.”

                                    As calculated by Felbermayr and trade expert Sonali Chowdhry, EU exports to China will probably be USD 10.8B lower in 2021 compared with a scenario in which the agreement and the tariff war between China and the USA would not have existed. The EU would then have to bear about a sixth of the overall trade diversion caused by the agreement.

                                    In absolute terms, the biggest losers in the EU are the manufacturers of aircraft (USD -3.7B), vehicles (USD -2.4B), and industrial machinery (USD – 1.4B). In terms of relative changes, the largest relative losses would again be in the aircraft sector (-28%), vehicles (-7%), and pharmaceutical products (-5%). “The affected industries are mainly located in Germany, but France has also been hit considerably”, says Felbermayr.

                                    Full release here.

                                    White House said it looks like Trump is moving in that direction of meeting with Chinese Xi

                                      White House spokesman Hogan Gidley was asked by Fox News Channel if Trump and Chinese President Xi will have a sideline meeting at G20 summit in Osaka. He didn’t answer directly and said “it looks like we’re moving in that direction.”

                                      Trump said yesterday he has “no deadline” for the trade negotiations with China. But he emphasized that “I would never take something that would be less than what we already had”. He reiterated he had very good relationship with Xi, just “a little bit testy right now”.

                                      Eurozone economic sentiment dropped to -0.2, business climate unchanged at 0.69

                                        Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped -0.2 to 106.1 in February, slightly above expectation of 106.0. The broadly unchanged reading resulted from “weaker industry and construction confidence in combination with more upbeat signals from the services sector, as well as, to a lesser extent, retail trade and consumers”. Meanwhile the ESI dropped in Franc (-0.9%) and Italy (-1.6), practically flat in Germany (-0.1) and Spain (0.0), but improved in the Netherlands (+3.0).

                                        Eurozone Business Climate Indicator is flat at 0.69 in February, slightly above expectation of 0.67. Eurostats noted “Managers’ production expectations, as well as their assessments of the stocks of finished products, overall- and export order books clouded over. Meanwhile, the appraisals of past production rebounded from last month’s sharp drop.”

                                        Trump to decide on more China tariffs over the new few weeks

                                          After repeating his threat to China for tariffs on the currently untaxed USD 300B in imports, Trump said he’s make a decision over the next few weeks.

                                          Trump is in France for a ceremony for the 75th anniversary of D-Day with France President Emmanuel Macron. He said “I will make that decision I would say over the next few weeks, probably right after the G20”.

                                          And, “One way or another I’ll make that decision after the G20. I’ll be meeting with President Xi and we will see what happens.”