UK PMI Manufacturing dropped to 64.2 in June, down from 65.6, above expectation of 64.0. PMI Services dropped to 61.7, down from 62.9, below expectation of 63.0. PMI Composite dropped to 61.7, down from 62.9.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “There are some signs that the rate of expansion appears to have peaked, as both output and new order growth cooled slightly from May’s record performances, but full order books and a further loosening of virus-fighting restrictions should nevertheless help ensure growth remains strong as we head through the summer.

“However, inflation worries have continued to intensify. Record levels of the survey’s price gauges and the further development of capacity constraints hint strongly that consumer price inflation has much further to rise after already breaching the Bank of England’s 2% target in May.

Full release here.

UK GDP was finalized at -2.2% qoq in Q1, worse than initial estimate of -2.0% qoq. That’s the largest decline since Q3 1970, which also fell by -2.2% qoq. Over the year, GDP decreased by -1.7% yoy, revised down by -0.1%. Looking at some details, services output fell by a record -2.3%. Household consumption declined by -2.9%, revised downward by -1.2%, a record decline.

Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician at the ONS, said: “Our more detailed picture of the economy in the first quarter showed GDP shrank a little more than first estimated. Information from government showed health activities declined more than we previously showed. All main sectors of the economy shrank significantly in March as the effects of the pandemic hit.”

Full release here.

UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.0 in February, down from 52.6 and matched expectation. Markit noted that stocks on inputs and finished goods rose sharpy. However, rate of job losses was at six-year high as optimism hits series low.

Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

“With Brexit day looming, UK manufacturers continued to implement plans to mitigate potential disruptions. Stockpiling of both inputs and finished products remained the order of the day, with growth in the former hitting a fresh record high.

“The current elevated degree of uncertainty is also having knock-on effects for business confidence and employment, with optimism at its lowest ebb in the survey’s history and the rate of job losses accelerating to a six-year high.

“Official data confirm that manufacturing is already in recession, and the February PMI offers little evidence that any short-lived boost to output from stock-building is sufficient to claw the sector back into growth territory.

“Apart from the uncertain outlook, manufacturers also face a darkening backdrop of a domestic market slowdown and weakening inflows of new export business, as global growth decelerates and trade tensions bite. Manufacturing and the broader UK economy therefore face a difficult 2019, with the slowdown being exacerbated later in the year as inventory positions are unwound and Brexit-related headwinds likely to linger.”

Full release here.

Also from UK, mortgage approvals rose to 67k in January. M4 money supply rose 0.2% mom in January.

UK retail sales volume declined -1.0% mom in December, much worse than expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-fuel sales dropped -1.1% mom, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Sales value decreased -1.2% mom while ex-fuel sales value declined -1.0% mom.

Between 2021 and 2022, retail sales volume fell by -3.0%, “as the lifting of restrictions on hospitality led to a return to eating out, and rising prices and the cost of living affected sales volumes.”

Full release here.