Several Federal Reserve officials welcomed the US June CPI data released yesterday, which showed better-than-expected disinflation progress. This has intensified expectations that Fed would start cutting interest rates in September, with Fed fund futures indicating a 93% chance. More importantly, there is now over 90% probability of two rate cuts by the end of the year, lowering rates to 4.75-5.00%.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described the latest inflation data as “excellent,” noting the significant deceleration in shelter inflation as “profoundly encouraging.” He added that “this is what the path to 2% looks like.”

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also saw the June CPI data as “encouraging further progress toward lower inflation.” He emphasized the need for greater confidence that inflation will converge to 2% before lowering rates. Musalem noted the importance of seeing a moderation in demand and data that shows inflation converging to 2% by mid to late next year, adding, “we’re on a good path.”

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted the broader economic context, saying, “With the information we have received today, which includes data on employment, inflation, GDP growth, and the outlook for the economy, I see it as likely that some policy adjustments will be warranted.” However, she noted that the timing of these adjustments is still uncertain.

Commenting on yesterday’s US CPI report, which showed headline inflation surged to 9.1%, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the “numbers suggest the trajectory is not moving in a positive way”. But, “how much I need to adapt is really the next question,” as he needed to study the “nuts and bolts” of the report.

“The top-line number is a source of concern,” Bostic said, “Everything is in play.” Asked if that included by raising rates by a full percentage point, following BoC’s surprised move, he replied, “it would mean everything.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the significance of recent labor market and inflation data that surpassed expectations, he noted that these developments do not significantly alter the Fed’s overall economic outlook.

“Recent readings on both job gains and inflation have come in higher than expected,” Powell said at a forum at Stanford University overnight. However, he was quick to clarify that these developments do not fundamentally shift the broader economic narrative, which he described as “one of solid growth, a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down toward 2 percent on a sometimes bumpy path.”

In discussing the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy easing, Powell affirmed the “meeting by meeting” decision-making process and acknowledged that rate cuts are “likely to be appropriate at some point this year.”

Yet, he stressed the prerequisite of having “greater confidence” in inflation’s downward path towards 2% target before any interest rate red reduction would be considered.

“Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy,” he remarked.