UK confirmed arranging Brexit parliament vote on Jan 15, subject to approval

    UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s spokesman James Slack confirmed today that a vote is scheduled in the parliament on Tuesday, January 15 on the Brexit agreement. He told reporter that “Subject to parliament approving a business motion, the debate will be opened tomorrow … The prime minister said that she would close the debate next Tuesday, which is January 15, when the vote will take place,”

    Also he added that May is not trying to delay Brexit by extending Article 50 withdrawal notice. And, the idea may have been discussed by EU officials but not by British officials.

    BoJ Kuroda: Should continue with monetary easing

      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in a speech that Japan’s situation “differs” from both the US and the Eurozone. The country is still “on its way to recovery”. Output gap has “remained in negative territory”, but projected to “turn positive” as some point in H2 of this fiscal year. Inflation rate “has not risen from the demand side”. Current rise in inflation was “led by rise in import prices”, and the rate is projected to decline back to below 2% from fiscal 2023.

      He reiterated that BoJ “deems that it should continue with monetary easing and thereby firmly support economic activity”. By doing so, “it aims to provide a favorable environment for firms to raise wages and to achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner, accompanied by wage increases.”

      Regarding exchange rates, Kuroda said the “abnormally one-sided, sharp yen weakening appears to have paused, thanks partly to government’s FX intervention.” He emphasized it is “important for forex rates to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals”.

      Full speech here.

      German Ifo business claims dropped to 97.5, lowest since Nov 2014

        Germany Ifo Business Climate dropped to 97.5 in June, slightly down from 97.9 and below expectation of 97.5. Though, that’s still the lowest level since November 2014. Ifo Expectation index dropped to 94.2, down fro 95.3 and missed expectation of 04.6. Current Assessment index rose to 100.8, up from 100.6 and beat expectation of 100.3.

        Ifo President Clemens Fuest noted: “Companies have grown increasingly pessimistic about the coming months. However, their assessment of the current business situation improved marginally. The German economy is heading for the doldrums.”

        Looking at the details, Manufacturing index dropped again from 3.9 to 1.5. It’s been falling for over a year. Services index dropped from 21.0 to 20.0. Construction index dropped from 24.3 to 22.9. But Trade index improved from 5.4 to 7.9.

        Full release here.

        Euro remains firm against Dollar and Yen after the release. But EUR/CHF is mildly lower. For now EUR/CHF’s consolidation from 1.1056 is still in progress and could extend for a while. But a break of 1.1056 is expected eventually to resume larger down trend.

        UK Rees-Mogg: Change the government or the law, or Brexit will happen on Oct 31

          UK Leader of Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg challenged other MPs to collapse the government if they can, as criticism over Prime Minister Johnson’s move to suspend the parliament grew. Rees-Mogg told BBC, “All these people who are wailing and gnashing of teeth know that there are two ways of doing what they want to do… One, is to change the government and the other is to change the law. If they do either of those that will then have an effect… If they don’t have either the courage or the gumption to do either of those then we will leave on the 31st of October in accordance with the referendum result.”

          Some EU ministers sang a chorus against no-deal Brexit today as risks grow. Dutch Foreign Minister Stephan Blok said “it’s in nobody’s interest to see a no-deal Brexit,” and, “we still hope it will be possible to avoid a no-deal Brexit and we are looking forward to any proposals from the British government that fit into the Withdrawal Agreement”. Austria’s Alexander Schallenberg said “I fear so, yes,” that a no-de Brexit is more likely. But he also reiterated EU’s stance that “the ball is in the UK’s court… We have done whatever is possible to ensure an orderly exit of Britain.” Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said: “To support Brexit with the deal is a key issue because otherwise we will face a lot of negative consequences to our economies and our border traffic.”

          US initial jobless claims rose to 213k, slightly above expectation

            US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 213k in the week ending September 21, slightly above expectation of 212k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -0.75k to 212k. Continuing claims dropped -15k to 1.65m in the week ending September 14. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -12.75k to 1.668m.

            Also from US, goods trade balance widened slightly to USD -72.8B in August, below expectation of USD -73.3B.

            Germany’s unemployment rises 5k, still holding up well

              In December, Germany’s unemployment count rose by 5k to 2.703m, a figure notably lower than the anticipated increase of 20k. This increment brings the total number of unemployed in Germany to 183k higher compared to the same period a year ago. Additionally, unemployment rate inched up from revised 5.8% to 5.9%, aligning with expectations.

              Andrea Nahles, chair of Federal Employment Agency, acknowledged that economic challenges of 2023 have indeed impacted the labor market, but she also emphasized the market’s relative resilience in the face of these stressors.

              She noted, “If we look back at 2023, we can see that the weak economy has left its mark on the labor market — however, considering the extent of the stress and uncertainty, the labor market is still holding up well.”

              ECB de Galhau: The key question is if slowdown is temporary or more durable

                ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in a El Pais newspaper interview over the weekend that the central bank will scrutinize incoming data to decide whether to hike after this summer.

                He said “the key question will be if the slowdown is temporary — with a bounce-back during this year — or more durable.” For now, there is resilient domestic demand in Germany, France and Spain. And that kept recession risk low even though outlook was clouded by protectionism and Brexit.

                And de Galhau also noted that there was strong convergence of views within ECB about the sequencing of the next policy steps, as well as the flexibility about timing.

                China Caixin PMI services rose to 55.5, composite dropped to 54.0

                  China Caixin PMI Services rose from 54.5 to 55.5 in July, above expectation of 54.0. That’s the highest level since April 2021. PMI Composite dropped from 55.3 to 54.0.

                  Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “In general, the eased Covid situation and restrictions facilitated a continuous recovery in the economy. The services sector, which had been previously hit harder by the outbreaks than manufacturing, showed stronger improvement. Supply and demand continued to improve with supply stronger than demand. The labor market shrank greatly, adding to employment pressures. Business costs steadily climbed while prices charged remained stable, posing challenges for company profits. The market held on to positive sentiment, even with concerns about the outlook for Covid and the economy.”

                  Full release here.

                  UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 60.3 in Aug, severe disruptions and material shortages eroded momentum

                    UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 60.3 in August, a tick down from July’s 60.4. Market said output growth slowdown exacerbated by input supply issues. Input cost and selling price inflation remained close to survey records.

                    Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, said: “Severe disruptions to supply chains and raw material shortages eroded the growth momentum of UK manufacturing in August…. With all of these factors likely to persist for the foreseeable future, manufacturing could well see a further growth slowdown in the coming months…. The impact of supply issues is also feeding through to rapid price inflation… Business confidence remained elevated despite the widespread shortages as firms focused on the longer-term outlook and brought back furloughed workers.”

                    Full release here.

                    ECB de Guindos didn’t foresee recession in Eurozone

                      ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said he didn’t foresee Eurozone entering into recession. However, low growth could extend for a longer time. Meanwhile, latest news regarding US-China trade negotiations were positive. De Guindos also warned that low profitability of banks would lead to low valuation, “making the inevitable consolidation of the sector very difficult.” Low profitability of Eurozone banks was also related to costly structures and excess capacity.

                      Separately over the weekend, ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann complained that the current ECB monetary policy is “wrong” and “a different policy is needed in the future”. He added that ECB should think about lowering inflation target, temporarily, from 2% to 1.5%. Also, “I am convinced that she has heard the dissenting voices, that she will take them seriously and will try to find a new approach here.”

                      Australia NAB business confidence dropped to 6 in May, conditions dropped to 16

                        Australia NAB business confidence dropped from 10 to 6 in May. Business conditions dropped from 19 to 16. Looking at some details, trading conditions dropped from 27 to 24. Profitability conditions dropped from 21 to 17. Employment conditions rose from 11 to 12.

                        “Lower confidence in May likely reflects a range of risks on the horizon,” said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster. “Businesses are facing a new environment of higher inflation, rising interest rates, and risks to global growth. However, confidence is still at a fairly robust level all things considered.”

                        Full release here.

                        ECB Holzmann: 50 minimum, 75 a good guess, 100 too fast, for Oct meeting

                          ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said “50 may be the minimum” rate hike at next meeting in October. He added, “could it be 100? It could but I don’t see the necessity now to go as fast. I think 75 would be a good guess.”

                          Holzmann also noted that ECB is still “some way” from neutral interest rate. He said lifting deposit rate from current 0.75% to 2.50% would definitely take it beyond neutral.

                          Regarding quantitative tightening, he said it’s part of the normalization process, and will be discussed at a non-monetary-policy meeting next week in Cyprus.

                          US ISM manufacturing dropped to 49.1, ended 34-month expansion

                            US ISM Manufacturing dropped to 49.1 in August, down from 51.2, below expectation of 51.3. The contractionary reading indicated the end of expansion that spanned 34 months. Looking at the details, new orders dropped to 47.2, down from 50.8. Production dropped to 49.5, down from 50.8. Employment also dropped to 47.4, down from 51.7.

                            ISM also noted: “Respondents expressed slightly more concern about U.S.-China trade turbulence, but trade remains the most significant issue, indicated by the strong contraction in new export orders. Respondents continued to note supply chain adjustments as a result of moving manufacturing from China. Overall, sentiment this month declined and reached its lowest level in 2019.”

                            Full release here.

                            BoE’s Bailey: Monetary decisions to go on to be tight

                              During his recent speech at IMF’s annual meeting in Marrakech, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reflected on previous month’s decision to maintain interest rates at 5.25%. He characterized the decision as “a tight one”, added that “they’re going to go on being tight ones”.

                              The MPC’s narrow 5-4 vote to pause its series of consecutive rate hikes in September underscores the divided opinions within the bank regarding the best path forward.

                              Highlighting the bank’s recent efforts, Bailey commented, “We have made, I think, particularly in the last few months, solid progress in terms of showing signs that inflation is being tackled.”

                              However, he cautioned against overconfidence, adding, “let’s not get carried away because there’s an awful lot still to do.”

                              The “last mile” of inflation management, according to Bailey, will considerably depend on “restrictive policy.”

                              Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 6.6% in May, EU unchanged at 6.1%

                                Eurozone unemployment rate dropped from 6.7% to 6.6% in May, better than expectation of 6.8%. EU unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%. Eurostat estimates that 13.066m men and women in the EU, of whom 11.004m in the Eurozone , were unemployed in May

                                Full release here.

                                Fed’s Barkin suggests inflation might ease back to target with no further rate hikes

                                  Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin deliberated on Fed’s monetary policy stance in light of the ongoing economic slowdown and its implications for inflation during an MNI Webcast.

                                  Barkin addressed the possibility that the current economic environment might not necessitate further intervention: “Whether a slowdown that settles inflation requires more from us remains to be seen, which is why I supported our decision to hold rates at our last meeting,” he remarked.

                                  He emphasized the opportunity for Fed to assess the economic outlook before taking further action: “With rates restrictive and financial conditions tightened, we have time to reconcile competing narratives on demand and to test different views on the trajectory of inflation,” Barkin explained.

                                  He also allowed for the possibility that the current policy stance might suffice, suggesting, “perhaps inflation could return to target without more help from us and without too much damage to demand.”

                                   

                                  ECB de Cos: Further rate hikes could be made in coming quarters

                                    ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said today, “in the coming quarters, further (rate) increases could be made to reach levels in line with the natural rate of interest if the medium-term inflation outlook remains around our target.”

                                    But de Cos also emphasized that the process of policy normalization would be gradual. “For this gradual approach to be adopted, it is essential that inflation expectations remain anchored and that no second-round and indirect effects of a magnitude that could jeopardise this anchoring materialise,” he said.

                                    Another Governing Council member Olli Rehn said, “It seems necessary that in our policy rates we move relatively quickly out of negative territory and continue our gradual process of monetary policy normalization.”

                                    BoC Macklem: Goods reasons to believe inflation is temporary

                                      BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said yesterday that there’s “a bit more persistence” in inflation than policy makers previously thought. But he added, ” I think there are good reasons to believe that they are temporary,”

                                      “Our job as a central bank is to make sure that one-off increase in prices doesn’t become ongoing inflation… What we’re really looking for is to see any signs of spreading,” he added, noting that medium- to longer-term measures of expected inflation had not risen.

                                      He also pointed to the “frictions” in the labor market, which took longer to work through. “We’ve never reopened an economy before. And I think what we’re seeing is reopening an economy is a lot more complicated than closing one,” he said.

                                      Swiss KOF falls to 91.1, signals sluggish economy ahead

                                        Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, a leading indicator for the Swiss economy, declined from 92.1 to 91.1 in August, missing market expectation of 91.3. The barometer continues to hover below the average mark, signaling that Swiss economy is likely to face challenging conditions in the near term.

                                        According to KOF, almost all sectoral indicators contributed to the lower reading except for construction and domestic consumption, which exhibited slight positive developments.

                                        The most notable downturn in sentiment was observed in the services sector, affecting both real and financial services. This was closely followed by export-oriented businesses, as well as the hotel and restaurant industries.

                                        Full Swiss KOF release here.

                                        Australia CPI surged to record 6.1% yoy, but below expectations

                                          Australia CPI rose 1.8% qoq in Q2, blow expectation of 1.9% qoq. For the 12-month period, CPI accelerated from 5.1% yoy to 6.1% yoy, below expectation of 6.3% yoy. RBA trimmed mean CPI came in at 1.5% qoq, 4.9% yoy, versus expectation of 1.5% qoq, 4.7% yoy.

                                          The quarterly increase was the second highest since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), following on from a 2.1% increase in Q1. The annual rise was the highest since the introduction of GST.

                                          “Annual trimmed mean inflation was the highest since the series commenced in 2003 and annual goods inflation was the highest since 1987, as the impacts of supply disruptions, rising shipping costs and other global and domestic inflationary factors flowed through the economy,” said Head of Prices Statistics at the ABS, Michelle Marquardt.

                                          Full release here.