Mon, Feb 18, 2019 @ 18:39 GMT

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9448; (P) 0.9484; (R1) 0.9546; More

USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.9186 accelerates to as high as 0.9533 so far today. The strong break of 0.9490 resistance indicates near term reversal. This is supported by bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Also, there is a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.9254, h: 0.9186, rs: 0.9337). Intraday bias is now on the upside for 100% projection of 0.9186 to 0.9490 from 0.9337 at 0.9641 first. On the downside, break of 0.9337 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will be cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9907; (P) 0.9930; (R1) 0.9946; More

USD/CHF is still bounded in range of 0.9855.9991 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 0.9855 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.0056 with another fall. Intraday bias would be turned to the downside for 0.9787 and below. But downside should be contained by 0.9722/4 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724, 100% projection of 1.0056 to 0.9787 from 0.9991 at 0.9722) to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.9991 will target a test on 1.0056 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. Above 1.0056 will target 1.0342 (2016 high). In that case, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9620; (P) 0.9661; (R1) 0.9699; More

USD/CHF dipped notably after hitting 0.9700 but quickly recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, above 0.9700 will resume the rebound from 0.9541 and target 0.9757 resistance first. Firm break there will target 0.9866 key resistance level, 61.8% retracement of 1.0067 to 0.9541 at 0.9866. In case of another fall, we’d expect strong support above 0.9541 low to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and possibly below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggest that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9558; (P) 0.9578; (R1) 0.9604; More……

USD/CHF’s recovery continues in early US session and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral for consolidation above 0.9551. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.9770 resistance and bring resumption. Below 0.9551 will extend the decline from 1.0342 to 0.94443 key support level. At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9567; (P) 0.9606; (R1) 0.9674; More….

Considering the USD/CHF is close to to 0.9443 key support, consolidation from 0.9427 might extend further. But still, break of 0.9772 resistance is needed to confirm near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish for another decline. Below 0.9537 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9427 first. Break of 0.9427 will resume whole decline from 1.3042.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that 0.9443 key support (2016 low) could be taken out firmly as down trend form 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9874; (P) 0.9923; (R1) 1.0022; More

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 1.0056 high. Decisive break there will resume larger rise fro 0.9186 and target 1.0342 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9894 minor support will turn bias neutral and could extend the correction from 1.0056 for a while.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9295; (P) 0.9360; (R1) 0.9397; More

A temporary low is in place at 0.9288 and intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidation. But after all, near term outlook remains bearish as long as 0.9536 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.9288 will resume the larger down trend and target next key fibonacci level at 0.9115.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 0.9420 support suggests that fall from 1.0342 is developing into a medium term down trend. Deeper fall should be seen to 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9420 from 1.0037 at 0.9115. Break will target 161.8% projection at 08545. In any case, break of 0.9640 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9310; (P) 0.9388; (R1) 0.9488; More

USD/CHF reaches as low as 0.9288 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current decline should now target next key fibonacci level at 0.9115. On the upside, above 0.9448 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 0.9420 support suggests that fall from 1.0342 is developing into a medium term down trend. Deeper fall should be seen to 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9420 from 1.0037 at 0.9115.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9711; (P) 0.9735; (R1) 0.9770; More

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the upside with 0.9702 minor support intact. Current rally from 0.9186 should extend to 0.9900 fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 0.9702 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9576 support holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. The break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626 suggests that it’s likely completed at 0.9186 already. Further rally would be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. Sustained break there would pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance next. This will now be the preferred case as long as 0.9576 support holds.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9888; (P) 0.9950; (R1) 0.9987; More

With 0.9957 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside. Current fall from 1.0067 is in progress and would target 0.9856 support. Break there will pave the way to key support level at 0.9787. On the upside, above 0.9957 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0067.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9787 support holds, we’re still favoring the bullish case. That is, rise fro 0.9787 is resuming the whole up trend from 0.9186 and should target 1.0342 key resistance on resumption. However, break of 0.9787 will indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9958; (P) 0.9982; (R1) 1.0012; More

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9904 will resume the fall from 1.0128 to 0.9848 key support level. Break there will indicate near term reversal and target 61.8% at 0.9765. On the upside, break of 1.0006 will argue that the pull back from 1.0128 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.1028.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9541 could have topped at 1.0128. But as long as 0.9541 support holds, we’d still expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage. Break of 1.0128 will target 1.0342 key resistance. However, break of 0.9514 will pave the way back to 0.9186 low.

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USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s recovery from 0.9613 extended higher last week but it stays below 0.9807 resistance so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is still expected as long as 0.9807 holds. Below 0.9613 will extend the whole fall from 1.0342 to 0.9548 support and below. We’d start to look for bottoming signal again as it approaches 0.9443 key support level. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9807 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.

USD/CHF Weekly Chart

USD/CHF Monthly Chart

USD/CHF Weekly Chart

USD/CHF Monthly Chart

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0000; (P) 1.0045; (R1) 1.0118; More…..

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 1.0107 resistance. Current development revived the case that correction from 1.0342 is already completed at 0.9812. Break of 1.0107 will bring a retest on 1.0342 high. On the downside, below 1.0037 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation first before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, we’re still maintaining that firm break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. However, the corrective nature of the fall from 1.0342 is starting to give the medium term outlook a bullish favor. Hence, in stead of looking for topping signal around 1.0342, we’d now pay closer attention to upside acceleration as USD/CHF approaches this level again.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9553; (P) 0.9609; (R1) 0.9644; More….

USD/CHF’s decline resumed by breaking 0.9571 and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall from 1.0037 would target a test on 0.9420 key support level. On the upside, break of 0.9666 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, range trading continues between 0.9420/1.0342. At this point, 0.9420 appears to be a strong support level. Therefore, in case of decline attempt, we don’t expect a firm break of this level. Nonetheless, strong break of 1.0342 is also needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9854; (P) 0.9906; (R1) 0.9934; More

USD/CHF recovers strongly after hitting 0.9866, ahead of 0.9856 support. Intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the upside, above 0.9977 will bring retest of 1.0067 first. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 0.9186. On the downside, below 0.9866 will extend the fall from 1.0067 through 0.9856 to 0.9787 support. As price actions from 1.0056 are seen as a corrective pattern, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending with another leg. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we’d expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9859; (P) 0.9901; (R1) 0.9926; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.0037 resistance will extend the rise from 0.9420 and target 1.0342 high. However, sustained break of 0.9835 resistance turned support will argue that whole rebound form 0.9420 is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, USD/CHF should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9420 to 1.0037 at 0.9565 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could be a medium term up move and should target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9736 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9854; (P) 0.9906; (R1) 0.9934; More

USD/CHF struggles to get through 4 hour 55 EMA and is held well below 0.9977 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 0.9977 will bring retest of 1.0067 first. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 0.9186. On the downside, below 0.9866 will extend the fall from 1.0067 through 0.9856 to 0.9787 support. As price actions from 1.0056 are seen as a corrective pattern, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending with another leg. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we’d expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9626; (P) 0.9647; (R1) 0.9674; More….

USD/CHF is still staying in range of 0.9582/9772 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9772 resistance will revive the bullish case of reversal. That is, whole decline from 1.0342 has completed at 0.9437 after defending 0.9443 support. USD/CHF should then target channel resistance (now at 0.9849) next. Meanwhile, the pair is bounded inside medium term falling channel and limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9783 for the moment. Break of 0.9582 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9437. This could also extend the fall from 1.0342 through 0.9437/43 key support level.

In the bigger picture, we’re slightly favoring the case that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 key support level. And long term range trading in 0.9443/1.0342 is extending with another rise. At this point, there is no sign of an up trend yet. Hence, while further rise is expected in USD/CHF, we’ll start to be cautious on loss of momentum above 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9996. However, firm break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and would target next key support at 0.9072.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9913; (P) 0.9929; (R1) 0.9951; More

USD/CHF drops notably in early US session but stays above 0.9855 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.9855 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.0056 with another fall. Intraday bias would be turned to the downside for 0.9787 and below. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.9991 will target a test on 1.0056 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. Above 1.0056 will target 1.0342 (2016 high). In that case, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.

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USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF jumped to as high as 0.9835 last week as rebound from 0.9420 extended. Upside momentum is still a bit unconvincing. But considering the sustained trading above medium term channel resistance, and break of 0.9777 resistance, we’re favoring the whole down trend form 1.0342 has completed after defending 0.9443 key support again. Further rise is now expected this week as long as 0.9708 support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9420 at 0.9990. However, break of 0.9708 will mix up this bullish outlook and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9587 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could develop into a medium term move and target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9587 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.

USD/CHF Weekly Chart

USD/CHF Monthly Chart

USD/CHF Weekly Chart

USD/CHF Monthly Chart

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