Market Movers ahead

  • With no movement in the negotiations between the US and Mexico so far, there is a real risk of the US imposing higher tariffs on Mexican imports, although the decision may be postponed, as the Mexican government is seen to be taking the talks seriously.
  • In the US, the Fed is entering its blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting on 18-19 June, so there will not be any new Fed policy signals next week. Look out for industrial production and retail sales for May.
  • In the euro area, industrial production data for April is due out.
  • In the UK, the Conservative Party leadership contest officially kicks off. The first voting takes place next week and the final two candidates will be known the following week. We also get the monthly GDP print and labour market report.
  • In Japan, we get revised Q1 GDP data, which may be interesting given the surprising flash estimate.
  • In China, focus is on trade data for any signs of weakness in light of the ongoing trade conflict.
  • In Sweden, inflation should come in lower than the Riksbank’s projections, which puts pressure on the organisation ahead of the next meeting in early July.

Weekly wrap-up

  • New Fed call – next step, rate cut
  • Dovish ECB disappoints markets
  • Euro area inflation misses estimates
  • Markets dovishly priced

Full report in PDF.

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