The British pound has started the week quietly. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.2984, down 0.20% on the day. On the release front, there are no British or US events on the calendar. On Tuesday, the UK releases a host of inflation data, led by CPI. The US will publish retail sales and core retail sales reports.
The crisis between North Korea and the US remains a geopolitical hot spot, but the political temperature is lower this week between Washington and Pyongyang. Last week saw some saber rattling between the two countries, culminating with North Korea threatening to hit Guam with a missile strike. Although both sides are interested in a diplomatic solution, the crisis has unnerved investors, boosting safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen. Donald Trump has his hands full on the domestic front as well. The White House faced stinging criticism from both Republicans and Democrats, as Trump failed to single out white supremacists for the violence in Charlottesville, Virginia, where one person was killed at a demonstration against far-right marchers.
The British manufacturing sector is showing signs of fatigue, based on a key indicator, Manufacturing Production. The indicator has managed just one gain in 2017, and the June reading of 0.0% is hardly reassuring news. There was no relief from Britain’s trade balance, as the deficit climbed to GBP 12.7 billion in June, marking a three month high. Investors remain concerned about Brexit, and the Bank of England has not shied away from warning that Britain’s departure from the EU will hurt the British economy. One of the buzz words surrounding Brexit is "transition period", as some politicians have come out in favor of a period between Britain’s departure and post-Brexit rules coming into effect. This would minimize the destabilizing effect of Brexit on financial companies, for example. Last week, BoE Deputy Governor Sam Woods said that "some form of implementation period is desirable", although he stopped short of providing any specifics. The concept of a transition period could come up in talks between the two sides if the May government decides that it wants a transition period.
