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AUD/NZD in Focus ahead of Key Data from Antipodean Nations

This week’s key macro events are mostly out of the way. However, we still have important data coming from the Antipodean nations in the early hours of Thursday and from Canada on Friday. So, the focus is now going to turn to the commodity currencies. New Zealand will kick...

UK Wages Rise Less Than Forecast, Inflation Data Eyed

The U.S. dollar was seen trading on firmer ground yesterday amid a busy trading day. Investor appetite was seen improving across the board. Economic data from the UK showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, which was better than the expected 4.3% level. Wage growth was however subdued, rising...

Europe Awaits Consumer Price Data

At 08:30 GMT, UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) will be released and is expected to be unchanged at 2.7%. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) is expected at 2.5% from 2.4% prior. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Mar) is expected at 0.3% from 0.4% prior. Producer Price Index –...

New Zealand Inflation Expected to Fall to Lower Target Band as Kiwi Stalls at $0.74

Quarterly inflation numbers out of New Zealand on Thursday are expected to show the country’s CPI rate moving back towards the lower end of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target band. The data (due at 22:45 GMT on Wednesday) would likely reaffirm expectations that the RBNZ will be...

Australia & New Zealand Weekly: RBA Financial Stability Review – Global Risks Dominate

Week beginning 16 April 2018 RBA Financial Stability Review - global risks dominate. Australia: Westpac-MI leading index, RBA minutes, employment. NZ: CPI, house sales. China: GDP. Euro Area: consumer confidence, ZEW survey. US: retail sales, Federal Reserve Beige Book. Canada: BoC decision Key economic & financial forecasts. Information contained in...

Australian Dollar Higher after China Data, EUR/AUD in Focus

Australian dollar strengthens broadly in Asia session as lifted mildly by China's trade data. The Aussie is also among the strongest ones for the week, together with Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. Euro suffered some selloff overnight, in particular against, Sterling. But the common currency quickly found footing...

New Zealand BusinessNZ PMI: Weak spot in production

New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) dropped -1.1 to 52.2 in March. That's also the second consecutive decline in 2018 even though it still signaled expansion. BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard: "On a positive note, the proportion of positive comments in March (55.1%) picked up from...

Chinese President Xi Soothes Market Worries

With US Producer Prices data on the way this afternoon, and predicted to be largely as expected, the morning session will be dominated by central bankers, as FOMC Member Kaplan and MPC Member Haldane are due to make separate speeches. The US/China Trade War has been dominating headlines, with...

Australia & New Zealand Weekly: Gradual Decline in the AUD Expected to Continue through 2018

Week beginning 9 April 2018 Gradual decline in the AUD expected to continue through 2018 as USD stabilises; commodity prices fall; and interest margins widen. RBA: Governor Lowe speaks, Financial Stability Review. Australia: Westpac-MI consumer sentiment, housing finance. NZ: retail card spending, house sales and prices. China: President Xi...

China Launches Counter Tariffs On 128 US Products

General Trend: Trading remains light amid the last day of Easter holiday Major currencies little changed, while Korean Won makes multi-year high S&P futures slightly lower ahead of US open after long holiday weekend China official PMI and Caixin both remain in expansion Japan Q1 Tankan survey shows first...

Australia & New Zealand Weekly: RBA on Hold; Economic & Financial Developments in 2018 Further Support Steady Rates in Australia

Week beginning 2 April 2018 RBA on hold; economic and financial developments further support steady rates in Australia. Australia: RBA decision, retail sales, dwelling approvals, trade balance, house prices. NZ: QVNZ house prices. China: Caixin PMIs. Euro Area: CPI, unemployment rate. US: nonfarm payrolls, ISM PMIs. Key economic &...

Volatility Picks Up As USD Strengthens Into Quarter End

With US Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index on the way later today, as well as US Jobless data, traders will be watching the USD, which is showing strength as we approach the last trading days of March. USDJPY was up to 107.00 at one point overnight, helped by...

Japan Stands Its Ground That It Will Not Hold Trade Negotiation Talks

General Trend: Asian equities trade mixed after largely negative US session Foreigners net sell Japan equities for 5th straight week: There were record sales in the most recent week Trade remains in focus: Conflicting press reports regarding whether China is eyeing import curbs on US soybeans As expected, North...

New Zealand building consents rose 5.7% mom in Feb

New Zealand building consents rose 5.7% mom in February verusus 0.0% mom in January. Key facts from noted in the release: The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented rose 5.7%. In the year ended February 2018, 31,245 new dwellings were consented, up 3.6%. The annual value of building work...

Risk On Again as Stocks Futures Rebound on Facebook, Yen and Swiss Franc Dive

The pattern of risk on/risk off continues today. After opening lower, European indices pare back much losses with FTSE now back in black at the time of writing. US futures also point to slightly higher open. Tech stocks, who were the main reason of yesterday's selloff, recover mildly. Facebook's...

Risk Aversion Has Stamina As Tech Sector Quivers

Wednesday March 28: Five things the markets are talking about Global equities trade on the back foot, with tech and mining names leading the charge lower. Yesterday stateside, U.S tech shares suffered their worst drop in over a month on concerns over trade tensions, motivated by President Trump's protectionists' moves. President Trumps...

Euro Stays Strong after Volatility in Thin Holiday Markets

There was some volatility seen yesterday in the forex markets. But as dusts settled, Euro is staying as the strongest one for the week, followed by New Zealand Dollar and Sterling. On the other hand, Yen and Dollar are trading as the weakest one, followed not too far away...

New Zealand business confidence: Economy is certainly not crawling, but it’s hardly gliding along

New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -20 in March, down from -19. That means a net 20% of businesses are pessimistic about the year ahead. Highlights from the release: Headline business confidence and firms' views of their own activity have trodden water in March, both little changed from the...

Global Trade Tensions Ease As China And US Talk Sending Equities Higher

General Trend: Markets continue to gain amid press headlines that China and US are looking to ease trade dispute Improvement in risk appetite supports Asian currencies China set yuan at highest level since 2015 devaluation Australia Iron Ore miner Fortescue cuts price guidance, notes subdued China demand South Korean...

Yen Lower as Trade War Fears Recede, Euro and Sterling Surge

Risk sentiments stabilized as markets reacted positively to the possibility of a trade deal between US and China. Major European indices are trading higher even though gains are only at 0.35-0.55% in FTSE, CAC and DAX only, at the time of writing. US futures also point to triple digit...

New Zealand February Trade Balance Above Expectations

New Zealand February trade balance above expectations New Zealand economy is showing signs of recovery following recent February trade balance data given at NZD 217million (consensus: -100 million) or USD 157 million, its highest rate after NZD -655 million deficit in January. On the downside however, New Zealand 12 months...

Asia Market Update: USD/JPY Tests 16-Month Low

Headlines/Economic Data General Trend: Asian Markets trade generally lower following sharp declines on Friday Japan steel companies continue to be weighed down by trade concerns Meanwhile, South Korea steelmakers gain on speculation of new trade agreement with US Nikkei pares more than 1% loss US equity futures trade higher; US...

US Treasury Mnuchin in Trade Talk with China, But No One is Cheering Yet

The financial markets opened the week rather quietly. Nikkei and KOSPI opened lower and turned black as the session went on. But other major Asian indices stayed slightly in red. US is apparent in talk with China on trade agreement. But no one in the markets is cheering for...

New Zealand trade surplus at NZD 217m in Feb, import hits Feb record high, NZD broadly higher

NZD trades generally higher in Asian session after trade balance data. Accord to Stats NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa, for February 2018 compared with February 2017: Goods exports rose NZD 446 million (11%) to NZD 4.5 billion. Goods imports rose NZD 187 million (4.6%) to NZD 4.2 billion, a new high for...

Forex Analysis: NAFTA Progress As US Drops Auto Content Proposal

Note: Wednesday is a Bank Holiday in Japan, banks will be closed, and there will be no trading activity due to the Vernal Equinox Day Bank Holiday. Progress has been made on NAFTA, as the US has backed down and dropped the demand that all vehicles made in Canada and...

US Fed Expected To Hike Rates To 1.75%

At 09:30 GMT, UK Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Jan) is expected to come in at 2.6%, from 2.5% previously. Claimant Count Change (Feb) is expected at -5.0K, from a previous reading of -7.2K. ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Jan) is expected to be unchanged at 4.4%. Average Earnings including...

Asian Market Update: Trading Subdued Amid Japanese Holiday And Ahead Of Rate Decisions

Headlines/Economic Data General Trend: Asian equity indices trade generally higher, in line with Tuesday’s US session Energy producers track outperformance in S&P500 Energy index Chinese automaker Geely reports mixed FY17 results Tencent rises ahead of earnings report (due after market close) G20 releases final communique amid lingering trade tensions Fitch...

RBNZ Meeting: Will the Song Remain the Same?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its rate decision on Wednesday at 2000 GMT, and policymakers are widely anticipated to stand pat. Given the lack of major developments recently, the Bank seems unlikely to alter its neutral tone, and the financial community appears to view this...

Week Ahead – All Eyes on FOMC Projections; Pound in Spotlight as UK Data, BoE Awaited

It will be a crucial week for the greenback and sterling next week as the Federal Reserve and Bank of England meet to decide on monetary policy. It will also be an important week for the UK in terms of data as inflation, jobs and retail sales figures are...

Australia & New Zealand Weekly: Near Term Positives Set to Fade for Commodities

Week beginning 19 March 2018 Near term positives set to fade for commodities. Australia: RBA minutes, Westpac-MI leading index, labour force. NZ: RBNZ policy decision and targets review, Westpac-MM consumer confidence. China: property prices. Euro Area: EU Summit. US: FOMC policy decision. UK: BoE policy decision. Markit flash PMIs. ...