Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8174; (P) 0.8195; (R1) 0.8217; More….

No change in USD/CHF's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Fall from 0.8475 could extend lower, and break of 0.8156 will target 0.8038 low. But strong support should be seen from there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, break of 0.8346 resistance will extend the corrective pattern from 0.8038 with another rising leg.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8732) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.75; (P) 143.36; (R1) 144.20; More...

USD/JPY's is staying in established range despite today's rebound. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 146.27 will target 148.64 resistance first. Firm break there will resume the rebound from 139.87. Nevertheless, break of 142.10 will bring deeper fall back to 139.87 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3536; (P) 1.3577; (R1) 1.3612; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen but further rally is expected as long as 1.3414 support holds. Break of 1.3615 will resume larger rally to 100% projection of 1.2706 to 1.3442 from 1.3138 at 1.3874. However, break of 1.3414 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback to 1.3138 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2866) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1401; (P) 1.1448; (R1) 1.1491; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. While another rise might be seen, strong resistance could emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will indicate that the corrective pattern from 1.1572 might have started the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0856) holds.

Dollar staged a firm comeback today following slightly better-than-expected non-farm payroll figures, with job growth at 139k and wage growth coming in strong at 0.4% mom. While not a blowout report, the data was enough to alleviate immediate concerns of a sharp labor market slowdown. Stock futures also advanced, suggesting that investors are reassessing the near-term risks from tariffs and focusing instead on the resilience in headline economic indicators.

Despite ongoing caution over the economic toll of US trade policy, particularly with the expiration of the 90-day tariff truce looming in July, the effects haven’t yet registered decisively in labor markets. In fact, the stronger-than-expected wage growth might reinforce some Fed officials’ inflation concerns, supporting the market consensus that the next rate cut, if any, is unlikely before September.

Outside of the US, Loonie is also showing strength, underpinned by solid domestic jobs data. Aussie and Kiwi are mildly firmer too, buoyed by broader risk appetite. Meanwhile, safe havens are under pressure, with Yen and Swiss Franc the weakest of the day as investors rotate into higher-yielding and risk-correlated assets. Euro and Sterling are softer, but holding within familiar ranges.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.10%. DAX is down -0.15%. CAC is up 0.14%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.03 at 4.656. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.11 at 2.573. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.50%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.48%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.04%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.002 to 1.459.

US NFP grows 139k in May, unemployment rate steady at 4.2%

US non-farm payroll employment rose 139k in May, above expectation of 130k. That's slightly below average monthly gain of 149k over the prior 12 months.

Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, matched expectations. Participation rate fell from 62.6% to 62.4%.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9% yoy.

Canada's employment grow 8.8k in May, unemployment rate rises to 7%

Canada's employment grew 8.8k in May, better than expectation of -11.9k fall. Growth in full-time employment (+58k; +0.3%) was offset by a decline in part-time work (-49k; -1.3%).

Unemployment rate rose from 6.9% to 7.0%, matched expectations. Employment rate held steady at 60.8%.

Average hourly wages among employees increased 3.4% you, same as in April.

ECB officials signal pause yesterday's rate cut, emphasize flexibility

One day after ECB delivered its eighth rate cut in this easing cycle, a coordinated message emerged from several Governing Council members: ECB is not committing to further immediate action.

Latvian central banker Martins Kazaks was particularly blunt, stating that markets should not expect a rate cut at every meeting. He emphasized the value of preserving "policy space".

"We don’t get much data between now and the July meeting so it may well be the case that we pause," Kazaks said. "But uncertainty remains very high, the political situation may change every day. So forward guidance isn’t your friend in these circumstances."

Greek central bank chief Yannis Stournaras echoed this sentiment, calling ECB’s work on inflation “nearly done,” while warning that further cuts would require growth to fall short of current forecasts.

Estonian Governor Madis Muller also struck a cautious tone, suggesting the rate-cutting cycle may be “almost finished,” but acknowledged that visibility is limited. All three policymakers stressed that decisions ahead would remain data-driven, and that it was too early to rule out any scenario.

French Governor François Villeroy de Galhau and Lithuania’s Gediminas Šimkus declared victory over inflation. However, both underlined the importance of maintaining flexibility in the face of mounting global uncertainty. Villeroy also reassured that “We have tools to react if there's deflation.”

Eurozone retail sales inch up 0.1% mom April, mixed national trends

Eurozone retail sales rose just 0.1% mom in April, falling short of expectations for a 0.2% mom rise. Modest gains in food, drink, and tobacco sales (+0.5%) and a solid rebound in automotive fuel purchases (+1.3%) were offset by a -0.3% decline in non-food product sales.

Across the EU, retail sales rose a more robust 0.7% mom, but the underlying data painted a sharply divided picture. Poland led with a remarkable 7.5% surge, followed by Slovakia and Sweden at 2.4%. In contrast, Germany—the region’s largest economy—saw a -1.1% drop, dragging on the overall Eurozone figure.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1401; (P) 1.1448; (R1) 1.1491; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. While another rise might be seen, strong resistance could emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will indicate that the corrective pattern from 1.1572 might have started the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0856) holds.

Canada's employment grew 8.8k in May, better than expectation of -11.9k fall. Growth in full-time employment (+58k; +0.3%) was offset by a decline in part-time work (-49k; -1.3%).

Unemployment rate rose from 6.9% to 7.0%, matched expectations. Employment rate held steady at 60.8%.

Average hourly wages among employees increased 3.4% you, same as in April.

Full Canada employment release here.

US non-farm payroll employment rose 139k in May, above expectation of 130k. That's slightly below average monthly gain of 149k over the prior 12 months.

Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, matched expectations. Participation rate fell from 62.6% to 62.4%.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9% yoy.

Full US NFP release here.

Gold is moving within a narrow range in European trading on Friday, but still being constructive after Thursday’s strong upside rejection at pivotal $3400 zone and daily close in red.

Near-term action stays around support at $3355 (broken Fibo 61.8%) and above 10DMA ($3335) which gives a dash of optimism, as several attacks already failed at this zone.

Technical structure on daily chart remains predominantly bullish (despite the evident loss of positive momentum) however, negative signals are developing on hourly chart (the price broke below the base of hourly Ichimoku cloud / 14-momentum is heading south and approaching the centreline), but this is initial signal that still requires confirmation.

Fundamentals are likely to be metal’s main driver again, after surprise talk between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi cooled trade fears and US jobless claims disappointed on jump to new multi-month high.

All eyes are on US May Nonfarm payrolls (130K f/c vs Apr 177K), with gold expected to receive strong boost if May numbers disappoint, while smaller negative impact could be expected on upbeat results.

The data are to provide more clues about the condition in the US labor market that will contribute to Fed’s short-term policy outlook.

First support lays at $3335 (10DMA) followed by $3318 (broken triangle’s upper trendline) and breakpoints at $3300 (psychological) and $3290 (daily cloud top).

Immediate resistance lays at $3368 (hourly cloud top, followed by $3375 (session high) and upper triggers at $3392 (Jun 3 high) $3400/03 (psychological / yesterday’s spike high) and $3310 (Fibo 76.4% of $3500/$3120 correction).

Res: 3375; 3403; 3410; 3437.
Sup: 3335; 3318; 3300; 3290.

The USD/JPY pair rose to 143.80 on Friday, marking a second consecutive day of yen depreciation. The decline comes as traders adopt a wait-and-see stance ahead of a key report on US employment figures.

Market cautious ahead of NFP; political factors also in play

Investors are focused on the imminent US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which may influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. In the meantime, the market has turned cautious, favouring the US dollar.

Political developments have also contributed. US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a telephone conversation and agreed to continue trade negotiations. However, no concrete outcomes or details were disclosed, offering only limited clarity to the geopolitical picture.

Weak domestic data adds pressure on the yen

On the domestic front, Japan posted an unexpected decline in consumer spending for April. Household spending fell by 0.1% y/y, reversing the 1.4% growth in March and missing the 1.0% increase forecast. The drop highlights the impact of rising prices on domestic demand, adding to uncertainty over the pace of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary tightening.

Nonetheless, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank remains prepared to raise interest rates if the economic and inflation outlook warrants it. The BoJ continues to pursue a measured yet steady approach to policy normalisation.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to consolidate around 143.33. The current move is heading towards 144.23. A downward breakout from this range would pave the way for a decline to 142.20, with a possible extension to 140.50. Conversely, an upward breakout could trigger a bullish move towards 146.25. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply upwards, indicating growing bullish potential.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around 143.33. The structure features a completed growth wave to 143.96, followed by a correction (test from above) to 143.33. The next likely move is an upward push to 144.23, expected to occur today. This may then be followed by a decline to 142.20 and potentially further to 140.50. The Stochastic oscillator supports this setup, with its signal line above 50 and trending towards 80, indicating strong short-term buying pressure.

Conclusion

The yen remains under pressure amid cautious market positioning ahead of US labour data and lingering trade-related uncertainty. Meanwhile, weak Japanese spending data raises questions over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike. Technically, 144.23 is the next key resistance, while 142.20 and 140.50 serve as potential support levels in the event of a reversal. The market’s direction will likely hinge on the outcome of the US NFP report.

Eurozone retail sales rose just 0.1% mom in April, falling short of expectations for a 0.2% mom rise. Modest gains in food, drink, and tobacco sales (+0.5%) and a solid rebound in automotive fuel purchases (+1.3%) were offset by a -0.3% decline in non-food product sales.

Across the EU, retail sales rose a more robust 0.7% mom, but the underlying data painted a sharply divided picture. Poland led with a remarkable 7.5% surge, followed by Slovakia and Sweden at 2.4%. In contrast, Germany—the region’s largest economy—saw a -1.1% drop, dragging on the overall Eurozone figure.

Full Eurozone retail sales release here.