Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7384; (P) 1.7421; (R1) 1.7462; More...+

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidations continue above 1.7287. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7477 support turned resistance holds. Current decline is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.8554. Below 1.7287 will target 1.7245 support, and then 1.6922 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.7477 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 55 D EMA (now at 1.7604).

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7468) argues that fall from 1.8554 medium term top is already correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is in favor to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922, and possibly below. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.8160 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 184.02; (P) 184.79; (R1) 185.30; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 185.55 temporary top. Further rally is expected with 182.60 support intact. Above 185.55 will resume larger up trend to is 186.31 fibonacci level. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection of 151.06 to 173.87 from 172.24 at 189.94. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 182.60 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 (2021 low) to 175.41 (2024 high) from 154.77 (2025 low) at 186.31. Firm break there will target 78.6% projection at 194.88. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 212.37; (P) 213.25; (R1) 213.93; More...

A temporary top was formed at 214.27 with current retreat. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 210.28 support to bring another rally. Break of 214.27 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 219.99 next. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 210.28 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 205.30 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Early market nervousness over a potential escalation in the Middle East eased as investors reassessed the likelihood of near-term US military intervention in Iran. Initial risk-off moves faded quickly, helping stabilize broader sentiment. A key factor was messaging from US President Donald Trump, who signaled that Washington may not intervene militarily in Iran, at least for now. His comments helped temper fears of an immediate escalation and reduced demand for safe havens. Gold retreated from its record highs, while WTI crude oil slipped back toward the 60 level as the immediate geopolitical risk premium was partially unwound.

Tensions remain elevated, however. Iran’s leadership is grappling with its worst domestic unrest in decades, and Tehran has threatened US military bases in the region in an attempt to deter American involvement. At the White House, Trump struck a cautious tone. He cited reports from “very important sources” suggesting that killings in Iran’s crackdown were subsiding. While Trump did not rule out military action outright, he said the administration would “watch what the process is,” noting that the US had received what he described as a “very good statement” from Iran.

Separately, Trump sought to talk down concerns over his standoff with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying he had “no plan” to fire Powell. Asked whether the investigation into Powell could change that stance, Trump said the administration was in a “holding pattern” and that it was “too soon” to decide. Trump also offered no new clarity on succession planning at the Fed, as he was inclined to nominate either former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett when Powell’s term ends. Announcement is expected "over the next couple of weeks."

On trade, Trump unveiled a new tariff mechanism targeting NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices, designed to enforce a 25% cut of AI chip sales to China. The move follows December’s decision to allow Nvidia’s H200 chips to be shipped to China, reversing an outright ban but attaching a revenue-sharing requirement. The tariff applies to AI chips imported into the US and then transshipped globally, including Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X. The move highlights the administration’s preference for deal-based, transactional trade enforcement.

In FX markets this week, Sterling is the top performer so far, though stronger-than-expected UK GDP has failed to add fresh momentum. Kiwi and Loonie follow, largely stabilizing after recent losses. Yen remains pinned at the bottom despite a brief bounce on intensified verbal intervention, while Aussie and Euro lag. Dollar and Swiss Franc sit in the middle of the pack.

In Asia, Nikkei fell -0.42%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.28%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.33%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.20%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.018 to 2.169. Overnight, DOW fell -0.09%. S&P 500 fell -0.53%. NASASQ fell -1.00%. 10-year yield fell -0.031 to 4.140.

UK GDP beats with 0.3% mom growth in November, services lead

UK economic output surprised to the upside in November, offering a modest boost to the growth outlook late in the year. GDP rose 0.3% mom, beating expectations for flat growth, with strength concentrated in services and production.

Services output increased 0.3% mom, while production jumped 1.1% mom, offsetting a sharp -1.3% mom decline in construction activity. The data points to improving momentum in consumer- and business-facing sectors, even as construction continues to struggle.

Over the three months to November, GDP edged up 0.1%. Services grew 0.2%, while production slipped -0.1% due largely to weaker motor vehicle manufacturing, and construction fell -1.1%. On a year-on-year basis, GDP expanded 1.3%, led by services growth of 1.4%. Production rose 0.4% and construction rose 0.7%.

Fed’s Beige Book signals steady jobs, moderating price pressures

The latest Beige Book from the Fed showed US economic activity improving modestly, with eight of twelve Districts reporting growth at a "slight to modest pace". Three Districts saw no change and one reported a modest decline, marking a better backdrop than recent cycles where stagnation dominated.

Consumer spending firmed modestly, supported by the holiday shopping season, while business activity presented a mixed picture. Manufacturing remained uneven, with five Districts reporting growth and six citing contraction.

Labor market conditions were "mostly unchanged". Eight Districts reported flat hiring, though multiple contacts noted increased use of temporary workers as firms seek flexibility amid uncertainty. Wage growth continued at a "moderate pace", with several businesses saying wage pressures have normalized.

Price pressures remained elevated, rising at a moderate pace across most Districts. Tariff-related cost increases were a common theme, and while firms expect "some moderation in price growth ahead", many anticipate prices will stay high as they pass through accumulated cost increases.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 212.37; (P) 213.25; (R1) 213.93; More...

A temporary top was formed at 214.27 with current retreat. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 210.28 support to bring another rally. Break of 214.27 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 219.99 next. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 210.28 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 205.30 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Markets

Market indecisiveness gradually morphed into a mild risk-off yesterday. Profit taking on big tech stocks pushed the Nasdaq 1% lower. Mixed results from major US banks also didn’t help sentiment. Still losses in the likes of the Dow (-0.09%) or the Eurostoxx 50 (-0.41%) were more modest. The US Supreme Court again didn’t give an opinion in the Trump tariff case. The modest risk-off correction for once triggered a traditional rally and bull flattening on core bond markets. US yields declined by 2.3 bps (2-y) to 5.2 bps (30-y). German yields eased between 1.7 bps (2-y) and 3.3 bps (10-y). US eco data were not to blame. Both November producer price inflation (0.2% M/M; 3% Y/Y) and retail sales (headline +0.6% M/M) printed on the stronger side of expectations, but had no noticeable impact on trading. The rebound in bonds mainly occurred later. DXY closed marginally softer at 99.05. However, in a context with little eco news and geopolitical topics dominating the headlines it is difficult for the euro to make progress (EUR/USD close 1.164). Don’t call it a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact reaction yet, but after touching the weakest level against the dollar since July 2024 (USD/JPY 159.45), pressure on the yen eased slightly. LDP officials confirmed that PM Takaichi will announce snap elections soon. The Ministry of Finance warned on unidirectional yen moves that are not in line with fundamentals. Question is whether such a soft/hidden suggestion on potential interventions will already be a game-changer for the yen, with a period of political uncertainty still ahead in the run-up to the elections.

Overnight some comments/measures from President Trump eased the recent rally in oil and metals. Oil (Brent $64.4/b) declined after Trump suggested that an attack on Iran might not occur anytime soon. The correction in metals to some extent might be simply profit talking, but was supported by a statement that the US will look for bilateral agreements to secure the supply of critical minerals. The US might also implement a price floor to defend domestic production. Markets see this as the US backing away from imposing tariffs. Asian equities this morning show a mixed picture. US futures gain marginally. The dollar remains well bid overall (DXY 99.15). The yen struggles to extend yesterday’s rebound (USD/JPY 158.6). The eco calendar contains some second tier US and European eco data including Philly Fed Business outlook, jobless claims and the Empire manufacturing survey. In Europe, Germany will published a first (general) estimate of the 2025 GDP growth. We doubt that these data will have a lasting impact. We look out whether the decline in yields is able to continue as first support levels are coming closer (e.g 4.78% area for the 30-y US yield, 2.80% area for German 10-y yield). On FX markets, the dollar holds to upper hand. A break of EUR/USD below the 1.1620/15 area suggests further downside. At the time of finishing this report, UK November production (1.1% M/M and 2.3% Y/Y) and monthly GDP data (0.3%) printed on the better side of expectations. Sterling recently outperformed the euro, with the 0.8650 support area now coming with reach.

News & Views

The Polish central bank kept the policy rate at 4% yesterday. The move was widely expected. The NBP lowered the policy rate last year a cumulative 175 bps. The (short) policy statement noted that annual GDP growth in Q4 would probably be in line with Q3’s more than decent 3.8%. Inflation meanwhile, dropped to 2.4% last month, effectively settling below the central bank’s 2.5% +/-1 ppt target. Core inflation, however, is estimated to have been close to November’s 2.7% after being more than 3% for much of 2025. Against this backdrop that the NBP decided to hold a 4% rate Polish swap rates rose by 4 bps at the front end after the decision, which had more to do with stretched positioning (2-yr swap hit a four-year low in recently). The zloty finished unchanged around EUR/PLN 4.21. Further NBP rate cuts are likely nonetheless with money markets assuming the trough in the cycle at 3.5% by mid-2026.

Policy rates in South Korea held steady at 2.5% after this morning’s CB meeting. The fifth straight hold is considered a hawkish one, with the Bank of Korea (BoK) scrapping a reference to further potential cuts. It shifted instead to a neutral stance in which it “will make its policy decisions, amid supporting a recovery in economic growth, while closely monitoring changes in domestic and external policy conditions.” 5 out of 6 members saw a “high chance” of holding settings steady over the next three months. The change in its monetary stance comes as growth remains resilient, inflation slightly above target but especially as financial stability concerns, tied to the housing market and currency, grow. Even after the decision, the won remains under pressure. USD/KRW rises to 1470.3, just shy of a 17-year lows seen in April last year around 1490. The weak won also drew attention from the US with secretary Bessent just yesterday commenting that the depreciation is not in line with fundamentals..

UK economic output surprised to the upside in November, offering a modest boost to the growth outlook late in the year. GDP rose 0.3% mom, beating expectations for flat growth, with strength concentrated in services and production.

Services output increased 0.3% mom, while production jumped 1.1% mom, offsetting a sharp -1.3% mom decline in construction activity. The data points to improving momentum in consumer- and business-facing sectors, even as construction continues to struggle.

Over the three months to November, GDP edged up 0.1%. Services grew 0.2%, while production slipped -0.1% due largely to weaker motor vehicle manufacturing, and construction fell -1.1%. On a year-on-year basis, GDP expanded 1.3%, led by services growth of 1.4%. Production rose 0.4% and construction rose 0.7%.

Full UK GDP release here.

• Bitcoin is up 5.59% for the week, driven by institutional consolidation, cooling U.S. inflation, and anticipation of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act.
• MicroStrategy significantly grew its holdings by purchasing 13,627 BTC for $1.25 billion.
  The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act aims to clarify regulation by establishing distinct oversight for digital commodities (CFTC) and centralized assets (SEC)
• Near-term technical levels point to key support at $95,000 and $92,000, with major resistance at the $100,000 psychological barrier.

Bitcoin has demonstrated a robust recovery as the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap has transitioned from a period of speculative volatility into a phase of institutional consolidation and regulatory formalization.

The recent Bitcoin rally has come about as a result of converging factors which include a cooling inflationary environment in the United States, and the imminent arrival of a definitive federal regulatory framework via the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act.

Bitcoin is up around 5.59% for the week at the time of writing.

Source: TradingView

Institutional Treasury Integration and Corporate Accumulation

One of the key factors behind the recent rally is the scale of treasury participation. Many public companies have followed MicroStrategy’s lead, using Bitcoin as a standard tool to protect their wealth from inflation.

The MicroStrategy Strategy

In early January 2026, MicroStrategy (MSTR) significantly grew its holdings:

• The Purchase: They bought 13,627 Bitcoin for about $1.25 billion (at roughly $91,519 per coin).
• The Total: This brought their total stash to 687,410 BTC.
• The Funding: To pay for this, the company sold roughly $1.13 billion in new stock and raised another $119 million through specialized "preferred" shares.

Long-Term Stability

This isn't just a gamble; it's a calculated financial plan. On January 12, Director Carl Rickertsen showed personal confidence by investing nearly $780,000 of his own money into company shares.

Furthermore, MicroStrategy is keeping $2.25 billion in cash on hand to pay its bills and dividends, proving they are prepared for the long haul rather than just betting on price spikes.

This trend is mirrored by the performance of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $697$ million in net inflows on January 5 alone, the highest single-day gain in over three months. These inflows, primarily driven by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity, suggest that institutional allocators are utilizing ETFs as a "liquidity floor," effectively absorbing sell pressure from retail participants.

Legislative Catalysts: The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act

Add to this a potential legislative catalyst in the form of a new bill called the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act. This bill aims to stop the confusion between government agencies and create clear rules for the industry.

Ending the Turf War

The bill draws a "bright line" to decide who regulates what:

• The CFTC: Will oversee "digital commodities" (assets that are decentralized and not controlled by one person).
• The SEC: Will oversee assets that still rely on a central company, though with simpler rules than traditional stocks.

The Fight Over Stablecoins

The biggest argument in the Senate right now is about stablecoin interest:

• The Ban: Banks are worried that if people can earn high interest on stablecoins, they will pull their money out of traditional bank accounts. Because of this, the bill currently bans paying interest just for holding a stablecoin.
• The Exceptions: Companies can still offer rewards if the user is actually doing something, like "staking" or using the coin for transactions.
• The Pushback: Major companies like Coinbase hate these restrictions. They argue the rules are unfair and might force crypto businesses to leave the US.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin Prices?

Bitcoin is currently in a steady transition phase as the heavy selling seen at the end of 2025 begins to fade.

Long-term investors are holding onto their coins more firmly, and institutional buying has stabilized, suggesting the market has successfully absorbed recent price pressure.

While the recent climb toward $96,000 was driven more by technical trading maneuvers than a massive wave of new buyers, the overall setup for the first quarter of 2026 looks promising.

Given that there is less "sell pressure" and trading remains thin, even a small increase in new demand could trigger a significant price jump. If steady buying from spot markets and ETFs continues, this quiet period could be the foundation for the next major leg up.

Technical Analysis - BTC/USD

Looking at structure though (on the H4 chart), and price has just printed a higher high before dropping in the Asian session.

This could partly be down to profit taking and market participants eyeing consolidation ahead of the next major move.

The move lower has led the period-14 RSI to leave overbought territory with a retest of the neutral 50 level now a possibility.

Immediate support may be found at 95000 before the 92000 breakout level and 100-day MA resting at 91042 comes into play.

A move higher here will have to navigate its way beyond the 100000 and then gain acceptance above this psychological barrier. Beyond that market participants may eye the 103647 and 105000 handles as points of interest.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, January 15, 2026

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

US crude falls sharply this morning, nearly 3% at the time of writing, after approaching the 200-DMA yesterday near $62.50pb, following reports that the killings stopped and the US said it may hold off on military action for now. Silver fell more than 5%, while gold saw a more moderate pullback — under 1% from its all-time high this morning. Copper futures are down by up to 1.76% from ATH levels, as well.

Even though concerns around Iran seem to be easing, tensions remain. Encouraging headlines have triggered a pullback in commodities that had seen safe-haven inflows. However, the broader “debasement trade” — driven by political and geopolitical uncertainty and White House policy moves — is likely to continue, keeping pressure on the US dollar, Treasury yields and potentially US equities.

Trade tensions have receded into the background given the stronger geopolitical headlines since the start of the year, but negotiations continue. The Supreme Court, for example, again delayed ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs yesterday. Meanwhile, the US approved the sale of Nvidia H200 chips to China, but also announced a 25% tariff on these exports.

Under the new order, the US government will collect 25% fee when H200 chips are imported from TSMC in Taiwan into the US before final shipment to Chinese customers or other foreign markets.

Is this bad news for Nvidia? Not necessarily. China does not currently have a chip as advanced as the H200, and the country may want to import these chips until domestic alternatives close the gap. But political risks exist on both sides: the US imposes tariffs, while China has recently ordered its customs authorities to halt imports of H200 chips, aiming to support its domestic chip industry. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has stated that the company assumes Chinese sales will remain zero for the foreseeable future, so any sales there would be a bonus. Demand outside China remains robust, and upcoming earnings will provide a clearer picture.

On the earnings front, TSMC, which manufactures Nvidia chips, surpassed Q4 expectations, with revenue up more than 30%, exceeding both its own guidance and the 25% analyst forecast. Strong AI demand is driving this growth. Despite the positive earnings, TSMC shares are down more than 1% this morning due to the new tariff news. The company plans to open six fabs in the US to manufacture chips locally and avoid import tariffs, but construction takes time. Building a leading-edge facility costs around $20bn, and running one in the US is 30–50% more expensive than in Taiwan, potentially impacting both TSMC’s margins and its clients’.

And there is another problem: the rules of the game for business remain unpredictable — whether in chips, healthcare, or credit cards — as tariffs and fees can change rapidly.

Diving deeper into short-term costs across tech: global technology companies, particularly data center operators, are facing rising prices for metals used in construction and operations. Copper prices on COMEX, for example, rose 50% last year, 90% since mid-July, and 200% since 2020.

The question is, what’s the impact on different tech companies?

For data center operators, rising input prices will naturally squeeze margins. But the ripple effects through the supply chain will depend on 1. How much of data center costs are passed to clients and 2. The price elasticity of the end customer.

Big data center providers including Google, Microsoft and Amazon will be feeling the heat as it would be costlier to build the data centers and run them. The bad news is that the data center revenue is the biggest growth engine for these companies. But the good news is that they represent only a part of these companies’ total revenues. ~78% of Google’s revenue comes from ads & software services. The cloud revenue stands for around 11% of the total revenue. As such, the impact of higher costs on data centers could be absorbed and have a marginal impact on overall profitability. Similar reasoning could be applied to Microsoft and Amazon.

Further down the line, for the chip designers like Nvidia and AMD, the impact would be less. These companies have high pricing power (little price elasticity) and very high margins – we’re talking about a more than a 73% gross margin for Nvidia in the latest quarterly results. And this setup will remain unchanged as long as the demand for AI chips remains this strong. Therefore the chipmakers’ ability to past additional costs on to their clients should help them defend their profit margins and keep them at a safe spot.

For the rest of the economy, the rising input costs will increase the cost of AI, but the impact on the overall sector growth remains to be seen. AI increases productivity, reduces costs. Gains will in many cases remain higher than the additional costs.

And frankly, for many tech and non-tech companies, man-made trade tensions, supply restrictions on important metals and tariffs represent a higher risk than the input prices.

In focus today

• In Germany, we receive the first full-year 2025 GDP estimate, which thereby gives the first indication of Q4 GDP growth. Note it is a very preliminary release with much data for Q4 lagging, but it will nevertheless give an indication of growth in the final quarter of the year.
• In the US, weekly jobless claims data and regional manufacturing indices from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve are scheduled for release.
• In Sweden, we receive the details of the unexpectedly low December inflation. Primarily the underlying inflation came in lower than expected at 2.3%, where prices for recreation and food could be two factors explaining the deviation. Today's details are important, but the inflation figure for January is likely to be more decisive for the outlook.
• In the UK, November GDP growth figures will be published. The economy has remained stagnant during the second half of the year so far, despite PMIs suggesting stronger growth. The composite PMI for November stands at 51.2, indicating mild expansion.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In the US, Trump announced a 25% tariff on certain AI chips, including the Nvidia H200 AI processor and a similar semiconductor, under a new national security order issued by the White House. The move aims to bolster domestic semiconductor production and is part of a broader strategy to incentivise chipmakers to manufacture more semiconductors within the US, reducing reliance on producers in regions such as Taiwan. The tariff is narrowly targeted and will notably exclude chips intended for US data centres, startups, and non-data centre consumer applications.

What happened yesterday

In geopolitics, the meeting between Denmark, Greenland, and the US failed to resolve escalating tensions, as the US continued to insist on ownership of Greenland citing national security concerns. Danish foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen described the discussions as marked by a "fundamental disagreement," with no change in the American stance. However, an agreement was reached to establish a high-level working group to explore a common path forward. In response to the overall situation, Denmark and Sweden announced the deployment of soldiers and military exercises in Greenland.

In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's government survived two no-confidence votes initiated by far-left and far-right parties, who criticised its handling of the EU-Mercosur trade deal approved last week. Lecornu argued that the focus on the no-confidence votes was further delaying critical debates on the country's 2026 budget, which remains unapproved. He warned that the chances of passing the budget by the end of January, as demanded by the President, are diminishing.

In the US, November retail sales exceeded expectations, rising by 0.6%, indicating that consumer spending remained strong heading into year-end. Meanwhile, producer price inflation (PPI) for November increased by 0.2% m/m, bringing the annual rate to 3.0% y/y, up from 2.8% in October. This suggests that price hikes accelerated for US-based businesses toward the end of 2025, potentially signalling that inflation has not yet peaked and consumer prices may soon increase at a faster pace.

The US Supreme Court did not issue any ruling on Trump's tariffs, the delay in issuing a ruling, despite rescheduling from last week, highlights the complexity surrounding the highly anticipated decision on President Trump's global tariffs.

In Sweden, household consumption rose by 1.0% m/m in November, resulting in a yearly increase of 3.5% y/y, aligning well with strong retail sales figures. The growth was broad-based, with the highest increases seen in recreation and culture, as well as furniture, furnishings, household equipment, and consumables. Additionally, new manufacturing orders surged by 11.8% m/m and 23.0% y/y in November, with the other transport equipment industry contributing the most to the overall increase.

In Poland, the central bank kept rates unchanged at 4.00%, in line with expectations. Previous communication has indicated that the easing cycle is nearing its end, though there is potential for one or two additional cuts in early 2026. However, any final easing is likely to await and depend on the next updated economic projections, scheduled for release in March.

Equities: Equities had a tough session yesterday at the face of it, but underneath some interesting dynamics continue to play out. S&P500 ended 0.5% lower, Nasdaq was -1% while Russell2000 was +0.7%. Defensives outperformed cyclicals, but when looking at the sector composition it was IT and consumer discretionary that posted significant negative returns of -1.4% and -1.8% respectively. The lack of SCOTUS opinion dragged discretionary lower. Asian markets are primarily in red this morning albeit US equity futures are broadly unchanged.

FI and FX: US yields moved lower yesterday amid a souring risk sentiment, with equity markets on the decline in the US and Asia overnight. The 10y UST now trades in the middle of the 4.10-4.20% range seen from early December. EUR/USD remained stable in the mid-1.16-1.17 range, with US retail sales and inflation data having little market impact. Oil prices are trading lower overnight, as President Trump indicates that he is holding off from attacking Iran for now. This in turn has reversed some of the NOK strength seen during yesterday's session. In Sweden, focus today is on the inflation details for December, although we doubt that there will be much price action in the krona.

Following the formation of a significant low at $80,537 on November 21, 2025, Bitcoin has traded in a sideways-to-upward trajectory. The advance from this level is unfolding as a double three corrective structure under the Elliott Wave framework. Within this formation, wave (W) concluded at $94,172, followed by a pullback in wave (X), which ended at $84,398. The subsequent wave (Y) is currently in progress and is itself subdividing into a smaller-degree double three structure.

From the termination of wave (X), wave W of the lesser degree completed at $94,792. A corrective decline in wave X followed, bottoming at $89,190. The ongoing wave Y is developing as a zigzag structure labeled ((a))-((b))-((c)). Within this sequence, wave ((a)) is unfolding as an impulsive five-wave move. Specifically, wave (i) ended at $92,392, while wave (ii) retraced to $90,016. Wave (iii) extended higher and reached $97,939.

A pullback in wave (iv) is anticipated to correct the cycle from the January 12, 2026 low before the final push higher in wave (v) completes wave ((a)). In the near term, as long as the pivot at $89,222 remains intact, dips are expected to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swings, favoring further upside continuation.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 60 minute chart

BTCUSD Elliott Wave video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVf2sGp6fJo