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Key takeaways

Silver breaks into price discovery: XAG/USD has erased its early-January correction, surged alongside gold, and hit a fresh record high above US$91, confirming the resumption of an accelerated short-term uptrend.

Macro tailwinds remain supportive: Rising geopolitical risk premiums, softer US inflation, and expectations of continued Fed rate cuts into 2026 are reinforcing bullish momentum in silver.

Key technical levels to watch: Holding above US$86.27/84.03 keeps the minor uptrend intact, while a sustained break above US$90.90 opens the door toward US$94.60–95.81 and US$98.74–99.46, with a longer-term secular target near US$101.15.

The recent bullish price actions of Silver (XAG/USD) in the past four trading sessions that moved in line with Gold (XAU/USD), another precious metal, have eradicated the earlier expected extended minor corrective decline structure of Silver (XAG/USD) where price staged a prior decline of 10% (high to low) from 7 January to 8 January 2026.

In today’s Asia session, 14 January 2026, Silver (XAG/USD) has continued to extend its up move with an intraday rally of 4.3% to hit another record high of US$91.57 at this time of writing, breaching above the US$90.00 psychological level for the first time.

Macro factors such as rising geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East arising from Iran’s civil unrest, which may lead to regime change with involvement from the US, together with a likely continuation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts extension into 2026 after US core CPI for December 2025 came in below expectations (both m/m and y/y basis) have served as reinforcing positive feedback loops into Silver (XAG/USD).

Let us now take a look at Silver (XAG/USD) from a technical analysis perspective to decipher its short-term movement (1 to 3 days).

Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Relentless minor uptrend intact

Fig. 1: Silver (XAG/USD) minor trend as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 2: Silver (XAG/USD) long-term secular trend as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the US$86.27/84.03 key short-term pivotal support on Silver (XAG/USD) to maintain the short-term minor uptrend phase in motion since the 8 January 2026 low of US$73.84.

A clearance above a major resistance of US$90.90 (depicted on the weekly chart) increases the bullish acceleration mode for Silver (XAG/USD) for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$94.60/95.81(upper boundary of the minor ascending channel and Fibonacci extension cluster), followed by US$98.74/99.46 (Fibonacci extension cluster).

However, a break with an hourly close below US$84.03 invalidates the minor bullish impulsive sequence to flip the bias back to a likely minor corrective decline sequence again to expose the next intermediate supports at US$79.86 and US$74.07 (also the 20-day moving average).

Key elements to support the bullish bias

• The price actions of Silver (XAG/USD) have continued to trade above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
• Since 8 January 2026 low of US$73.84, the price actions of Silver (XAG/USD) has evolved into a minor ascending channel.
• The hourly MACD trend indicator has staged an intraday bullish breakout in today’s Asia session, 14 January 2026, above its centreline, which reinforces the ongoing minor uptrend phase for Silver (XAG/USD).
• In a longer-term secular trend structure from an Elliot Wave/Fibonacci analysis perspective, Silver (XAG/USD) is likely in an extended major/secular bullish impulsive up move sequence, labelled as wave III in place since 29 August 2022 low, with the next major resistance coming in at US$101.15 (see Fig. 2).

• US GDP growth is driven not by the White House, but by AI.
• The Bank of Japan’s sluggishness is weighing on the yen.

JP Morgan believes that the White House’s focus on lowering interest rates will have the opposite effect. Inflation will accelerate, and rates will rise. Donald Trump claims that Jamie Dimon is wrong and just wants rates to be high so that his bank can earn more. He went on to describe Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as a “bad person” who, in his view, is hindering the prosperity of the American economy.

The US economy is indeed pleasantly surprising. The World Bank has pointed to its resilience to tariffs and raised its GDP forecast for 2025 from 1.4% to 2.1% and for 2026 from 1.6% to 2.2%. The growth in these indicators is not based on White House policy, but on large-scale investments in artificial intelligence technology. However, Donald Trump has his own opinion on this matter. According to the president, in 11 months, the American administration has achieved explosive growth in the economy and productivity, victory over inflation, and prosperity in investment. Is more to come?

However, we have to adjust the midterm election promotions. Inflation in the US may have fallen to 2.6-2.7%, but it is still significantly above the 2% target. GDP growth is impressive, but the cooling labour market is causing the Fed to cut the rate from 4.5% to 3.75% in 2025. Currently, FOMC officials believe that monetary policy is well-positioned. They intend to maintain a pause in the cycle, which supports the dollar.

Meanwhile, the yen continues to get battered. Investors expect Sanae Takaichi to dissolve parliament and call new elections as early as February. This is leading to higher Japanese bond yields and a surge in USDJPY to 18-month highs, returning to the previous territory of currency intervention. The stronger the Liberal Democratic Party’s footing, the more chances of higher fiscal stimulus. At the same time, the government may put pressure on the central bank to prevent interest rates from rising, as this increases the cost of servicing the national debt.

In this regard, Kazuo Ueda’s speech on continuing the cycle of monetary policy normalisation while meeting the conditions required by the Bank of Japan can be seen as justifiable. Investors do not expect an overnight rate hike before June, which, against the backdrop of a prolonged pause by the Fed, allows USDJPY to rise.

Market overview

The crypto market capitalisation has increased by almost 5% over the past 24 hours to $3.25T. This rise above previous local highs confirms the formation of a bullish trend with a sequence of higher local highs and lows. The crypto market has few technical obstacles until it reaches $3.32T, which is the classic Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the decline from the peak in early October.

The sentiment index jumped to 48. Although this is the lower half of the sentiment range, we are seeing the highest values for the indicator since the end of October, reflecting a significant change in sentiment. The crypto market did not need support from US stock indices for this, but metals and Asian markets still updated their highs.

Bitcoin is trading above $95K, its highest since November 17th. It managed to push off the 50-day MA, exceed previous highs and confirm a sequence of higher lows. What other bullish signals do you need? Technically, BTC now has a clear path towards the $100-106K area, limited by the psychologically crucial round level from below and the 200-day MA from above.

News background

The weakening of the US dollar will be a powerful catalyst for Bitcoin’s growth, according to analysts David Brickell and Chris Mills. In their opinion, the first cryptocurrency is the optimal asset for trading depreciation.

Bitcoin is simultaneously forming three serious signals for a decline, notes analyst Doctor Profit. In his opinion, reaching the $70K level is ‘only a matter of time.’

Strategy made its largest weekly purchase of bitcoins since July last year. Between January 5 and 11, the company purchased 13,627 BTC ($1.25 billion) at an average price of $91,519 per coin. Strategy now owns 687,410 BTC, purchased for $51.8 billion at an average price of $75,353 per bitcoin.

BitMine added 24,266 ETH to its crypto reserves last week, accumulating a total of 4,167,768 ETH at an average price of $3,119. The company already owns 3.45% of the total Ethereum supply, with a stated target of 5%.

The collapse of Ethereum’s market value could disrupt the blockchain’s settlement mechanism and cause Ethereum’s infrastructure to collapse, according to a study by the Bank of Italy.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin outlined a set of technical requirements that will allow the blockchain to maintain long-term stability without the constant involvement of developers.

Spot crypto market trading volume reached $18.6 trillion at the end of 2025. The figure rose 9% from $17 trillion in 2024, according to CryptoQuant.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson called on White House cryptocurrency adviser David Sax to step down from his post for ‘complete failure.’ According to him, since the appointment of the ‘crypto czar’ at the end of 2024, the industry has not seen the progress that everyone was expecting.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1626; (P) 1.1652; (R1) 1.1669; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues above 1.1617. On the upside break of 1.1742 resistance will argue that pullback from 1.1807 has completed. Rise from 1.1467 should then be ready to resume. Further break of 1.1807 will pave the way to retest 1.1817 high. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 1.1617 will target 1.1467 support. Overall, price actions from 1.1917 are seen as a corrective pattern that might extend further.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1416) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.32; (P) 158.75; (R1) 159.61; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen below 159.44 temporary top. Downside should be contained above 156.10 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 159.44 will resume larger rise from 139.87. Next target is 200% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 161.95, which is close to 161.94 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 154.38 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3397; (P) 1.3446; (R1) 1.3471; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as range trading continues inside 1.3389/3567. On the upside, break of 1.3567 will resume the rally from 1.3008 towards 1.3787 high. On the downside, break of 1.3389 will resume the fall from 1.3567. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.3375) will argue that the decline is another falling leg in the corrective pattern from 1.3787. In this case, deeper fall should be seen back to 1.3008 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3787 (2025 high) are seen as a correction to the larger up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Deeper decline could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 to bring rebound. Break of 1.3787 for up trend resumption is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7981; (P) 0.7998; (R1) 0.8029; More….

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.7860 resumed by breaking through 0.8016. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8123 resistance. On the downside, below 0.7954 support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. Overall, corrective pattern from 0.7828 low is in progress and would extend further.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7828 are seen as a correction. Larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is in still in progress. Break of 0.7828 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6660; (P) 0.6693; (R1) 0.6714; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidations continue below 0.6765. Further rally is in favor with 0.6659 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.6765 will resume the whole rise from 0.5913 and target 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.6659 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction back towards 0.6592 support.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6420 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3865; (P) 1.3882; (R1) 1.3907; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidations continue below 1.3917 temporary top. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3789 minor support holds. Rise from 1.3641 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3538. Above 1.3917 will target 1.4139 first. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.3538 to 1.4139 from 1.3641 at 1.4242.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, and break of 1.3538 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral until there are signs that the correction has completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9305; (P) 0.9317; (R1) 0.9338; More....

EUR/CHF's rebound from 0.9268 resumed by breaking through 0.9324 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Pullback from 0.9394 should have completed, and further rise should be seen to retest this resistance next. For now, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 0.9294 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, persistent bullish convergence condition in W MACD is a medium term bullish sign. Firm break of 0.9394 resistance should bring sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9362). That should indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next, even still as a corrective bounce. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9178 at a later stage.